AUDUSD trade ideas
AUDUSD Continues Downtrend with High-Probability Weekly FVG AUDUSD has maintained a strong downtrend, recently wicking into a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) that previously broke structure, confirming this FVG as high-probability. The recent close below the weekly FVG reinforces a bearish bias, indicating that sellers are still in control.
The next target for this move is the sellside liquidity at 0.63541. This setup aligns with the prevailing trend, making it a high-probability continuation to the downside.
Always remember: DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
AUS/USDJust a beautiful setup for long! Break of macro downtrend in play and longs is in order! Want to know when to enter? You looking at it!
AUDUSD tries to claw back ahead of Jobs release25 minutes until AU jobs data drops:
The market is looking for +25k jobs and for the U/R to remain at 4.1%.
#AUDUSD is trading at .6492/94, trying to claw its way higher after closing at an almost seven-month low. The risks there appear to be a test of multi-week support in the .6360/50 area.
The AU rates market is pricing in just a 10% chance of a rate cut for December and has pushed back expectations of a first full 25bp RBA rate cut until August 2025.
AUD/USD sinks to new lows as focus shifts to Aussie jobs dataWhether you’re talking price action or momentum, AUD/USD looks terrible on the daily, taking out the intersection of the US election lows and downtrend support with ease on Wednesday.
Momentum is with the bears; RSI (14) has cut its uptrend like a hot knife through butter while MACD has crossed over from above, confirming the bearish signal. Selling rips and bearish breaks may prove more successful than buying dips in this environment.
The short setup would be to sell here or wait for a potential squeeze towards .6513 as traders anticipate another stellar labour force report – there have been plenty of those recently. That would allow for a tight stop to be placed above the level, providing appealing risk-reward for those targeting a retest of key uptrend support at .6375.
The last time the Aussie interacted with the level during the Japanese market meltdown of August, it resulted in significant bullish reversal, underlining its technical importance. As such, it looms as an obvious target.
Good luck!
DS
Bullish AUDUSDI am Looking Bullish Trend of AUDUSD, Monthly Candle Sweep Previous Month Low, CISD (Change in State Delivery) on Daily Time Frame. So There is Two Targets, 50% of Previous Month Candle and High of Previous Month Candle, If Daily Candle Close Below Current Low, Idea Will Invalid.
Another update to existing positionAnother update not live call out, so focus on management.
First Fundamental reasoning.
1. Monetary Policy Divergence
- **Federal Reserve**: The Fed remains relatively hawkish, prioritising high rates to control inflation. The strength of the U.S. economy has allowed the Fed to maintain or potentially even raise rates further, enhancing USD’s appeal compared to currencies from countries with more accommodative policies.
-Reserve Bank of Australia : The RBA has adopted a more cautious approach, recently pausing on rate hikes due to concerns about slowing domestic growth and the impact of high rates on household debt. This divergence between the Fed's high-rate policy and the RBA’s reluctance to hike makes the AUD less attractive against the USD.
2. Economic Data Disparities
The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, with strong employment data and steady consumer spending supporting USD strength. As economic fundamentals remain solid, investor confidence in USD assets is sustained, putting further pressure on AUD/USD.
Australia’s economic indicators suggest a slowdown, particularly in consumer spending and business confidence. With inflation showing signs of moderating and wage growth remaining contained, the RBA has limited scope to increase rates without risking a significant economic slowdown. This weakens the AUD as it signals limited support from domestic fundamentals.
3. Commodity Demand and China’s Economic Slowdown. Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, particularly to China. With China’s growth decelerating amid property sector challenges and lower global demand, the demand for Australian exports such as iron ore and coal has weakened, exerting downward pressure on the AUD.
Commodity Price Vulnerability. The slowing Chinese economy not only reduces demand for Australian commodities but also adds to the AUD’s vulnerability given its correlation with global commodity cycles.
4. Risk Sentiment and Safe Haven Flows
Global Risk Aversion. In periods of increased risk aversion, such as recent geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, the USD is favored over the AUD due to its status as a safe-haven currency. The AUD, being a risk-sensitive currency, tends to underperform against the USD during such times.
5. Market Sentiment and Positioning
Bearish Positioning on AUD Current market sentiment shows a bearish bias toward AUD/USD, reflecting global investors’ preference for the USD amid broader economic concerns. Sentiment indicators and COT data also show increasing short positions on the AUD, further justifying a short position.
Technical analysis, my confidence rank was still mid 80s, LTF did have good bear strength display plus the overall Dollar strength justified early entry.
This week conclusion on technical side confidence above 90% so it is with the fundamentals.
Updates will follow as the next events unfold
AUDUSD What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for AUDUSD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.6508
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 0.6573
Recommended Stop Loss - 0.6475
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
nice buy chance I see a triple bottom here and of course this is a trend reversal pattern , look how bullish is market here
Bearish AUDUSD H1 I suppose China's weak PMI data and lack of demand, would affect Australia's trade balance and tomorrow RBA will skip!
Possible longAussie Dollar is still ranging and seems not to have broken from the consolidation phase from the Daily charts. As long as price is above the 0.65000, areas of interest would be upside moves towards nearby resistance barriers. However, if the bullish move fails and price action stabilises below 0.65000, a move downwards will then be favourable.
Read The AUDUSD MarketLet's Look at AUDUSD Chart and Follow Price Actions and Find Some Trade Opportunities, Good Luck With Your Trades <3
AUDUSD Sell the dead cat bounce.The AUDUSD pair gave us an excellent sell opportunity last time on our bearish signal (September 18, see chart below) as it got rejected marginally above the 1.5 year Resistance Zone and broke below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
This is so far consistent with all three previous sell sequences that reached the 1D RSI oversold (30.00) barrier. If the symmetry continues to hold, then we should be expecting at least a +2.62% counter-trend rebound and then another rejection towards the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we remain bearish on AUDUSD but need to move our Target a bit higher at 0.64500 (despite the gravity of the 2-year Higher Lows trend-line and the Support Zone) in order to match the 1.382 Fib.
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AUD/USD ! November 13 ! Support H4 buy now AUDUSD trend forecast November 13, 2024
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth day in a row on Wednesday, pressured by disappointing Australia Wage Price Index data and optimism around "Trump trades."
Despite this, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s hawkish stance following last week’s interest rate hold, with a focus on restrictive policy due to persistent inflation and a strong job market, likely helped limit further losses for the AUD.
Price analysis:
Support H4 -very solid
USD - DXY: correction soon
/// BUY AUDUSD : zone 0.65300 - 0.65000
SL: 0.64500
TP: 50 - 150 - 300 pips (0.68000)
Safe and profitable trading
Potential Downside For AUDUSDFOREXCOM:AUDUSD
This pair is forming an ascending triangle pattern and the trend is down.
The support level is 0.62520 and 0.65398 as resistance.
In this condition, our advice is to short with 0.65150 and 0.65000 as TP.
Hope it helps, good luck!
AUDUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers!
Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe for more content.
Key Points
- Dollar strength continues with the “Trump trade” and rising U.S. Treasury yields.
- Expectations are growing that the euro may fall to near-parity levels as Germany heads toward early elections.
- The eurozone could face significant setbacks if tariffs are imposed due to Trump’s election.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the December rate cut could be paused if inflation is higher than anticipated.
- Uncertainty surrounds the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut path, with reports that Japanese investors are selling Australian bonds.
- Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers remarked that “Australia is more resilient to trade wars than other countries.”
Key Economic Data Schedule
- November 13: U.S. October CPI
- November 14: U.S. October PPI, Australia October Unemployment Rate
- November 15: Fed Chair Powell's Speech, Japan Q3 GDP, U.K. Q3 GDP, U.S. October Retail Sales
AUD/USD Chart Analysis
The AUD/USD is currently in a downtrend, with a likely decline to the 0.64000 level after breaking below 0.66000. A rebound from the 0.64000 level could lead to a climb back up to the 0.69000 level. However, if the support level is breached, there’s a high chance of a drop to the 0.62000 level.
If the downward momentum intensifies, we will swiftly develop a new strategy.
AUDUSD (LONG) H1 TIME: H1
EPT: BUY
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NOTE: After pullback search for confirmation to BUY!
7.5rr audusd trade.Price has been very bearish on the daily timeframe, and we are yet to see a pullback after the initial change of character.
Major liquidity has been swept on the 4H so I am now expecting a push up to complete the pullback on the daily timeframe.
AUDUSD Is Approaching An Important ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.65700 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.65700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Intraday the Aussie might lift but beating USD% D, W, TF? No
On Friday AUDUSD looked to me a very strong case for long positions, at least going forwards a few days to a week. I took the trade Long, knowing the USD$ was strong, because that's what the charts were telling me on Friday, but today it's a difference story. The Aussie likely to get a small bounce now and further selling to then take hold later in Tuesday.
But that has all changed with the Gold price selling off yesterday Monday, Gold selling and correcting in a bigger manner puts the US Dollar in a position of strength. Yesterday, I wrote how the US Dollar broke out with Bitcoin last week.
But at some point, very soon I imagine, the USD$ will not be able to outperform and be in alignment with Bitcoin's continued outbreak upwards.
But stranger things have happened, for now the USD$ is back and showing its strength against other currency's.
AUD/USD Extends Losses Amid Mounting Bearish DynamicsTechnical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD has maintained its downward trajectory, decisively breaking below the weekly support level at 0.65579. This break has paved the way for further declines, with the next immediate support target at 0.65470. Should bearish control persist, the subsequent downside objectives are at 0.65331, 0.65178, and 0.65012. Each support level represents a critical inflection point, where a breach could accelerate the bearish continuation.
Momentum indicators further substantiate the bearish outlook.
In an alternative scenario, if buyers manage to regain control and push the price above 0.65579, the immediate focus would shift to the resistance level at 0.65980. A breakout above this level could signal a potential shift in momentum, suggesting a possible reversal of the current bearish trend.
Key Events to Monitor
Traders should closely monitor upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve members Thomas Barkin and Neel Kashkari, as these may provide further clarity on the Fed's future policy direction. However, the primary market-moving event for AUD/USD remains the release of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday. Given the current bearish sentiment, any surprises in the inflation report could trigger significant volatility in the U.S. dollar, directly impacting AUD/USD dynamics.
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