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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUDUSD trade ideas

Trade Recaps: USDJPY-LONG, GBPJPY-LONG, 21/11/2024UJ & GJ Bias Analysis: Both setups were very similar so correlation risk was high and I was effectively risking 1% on 2 separate setups. The Daily was trading at a premium, however after price began re-establishing a bullish counter trend, we pulled back into Internal range liquidity, mitigating the 62.5% and 70.5% fib levels on UJ & GJ respectively. Long entries were in line with the 1H bullish ranges and entry confirmation was achieved by means of a 15M reversal candle and Micro-timeframe confluence (1M Market Structure shift or 5M FVG inversion). Grade: - UJ: High Risk - GJ: Low Risk What I did well or could've done better: - I choked my stop losses on both pairs as I was trying to achieve the highest possible R:R. This led to being stopped out after price traded lower on both pairs to sweep MTF TBL. - I was focused and identified re-entry opportunities. I stuck to my trade management plan and only executed a re-entry on GJ as my plan allows for 3 maximum consecutive losses per day.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
AUDUSD Down/Sell.....primarily due to the strength of the US Dollar and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which suggests limited interest rate cuts in the near future. This contrasts with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which, while hawkish, is cautious about inflation and will adjust policies based on economic data. If US economic data continues to be strong, particularly inflation or employment numbers, it will likely support the USD, putting downward pressure on the Aussie. Additionally, rising global tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, increase demand for safe-haven assets like the US Dollar, further limiting the upside for AUD.
Short
by hemal0311999
AUDUSD - Can We Muster a Break Upwards?20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Dear Friends, your interest motivates me: If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service. How I see it: If price can break and hold above 0.65208, a short-term rally is possible. Bullish structure developing, can it hold? *** Keep in mind we have a 1D Tweezer below 0.65208 + We are still below Daily SMA cross. I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view. KEYNOTE: The most important to consider always, before you leap: When you jump in the river, make sure you are swimming "WITH" the current!!
by ANROC
Trade Recap: AUDUSD - LONG, 20/11/2024AU Bias Analysis: With a clear bearish leg on the 1D as a result of a bullish dollar, Price has now established a Counter Trend towards 1D EPD. The long entry is in line with the current bullish 1H range and price retraced to the 50% fib retracement level on the initial entry and the 79% fib retracement level on the second entry which is floating at BE. Grade: High Risk What I did well or could've done better: - I was not confident in he initial entry due to multiple factors indicating that price would retrace deeper into 1H discount but I followed the plan and executed regardless of what I thought would happen.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
AUD/USD: Bullish Momentum Amid RBA SupportThe AUD/USD currency pair has showcased a notable bullish momentum over the past three days, reflecting a growing confidence among traders in the Australian Dollar's strength. However, as the London session commenced today, the pair has experienced a slight retracement, drawing attention to its position within a significant demand zone. This area is not only crucial for potential price reversals but also indicates that traders are actively watching for signs of a possible trend continuation. Central to the pair's performance is the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish monetary policy stance. Recent developments from the RBA have painted a picture of cautious optimism regarding the Australian economy. Specifically, the minutes released from the RBA's November meeting on Tuesday underscored the board's alertness to the risks of rising inflation. The minutes affirmed the RBA's belief that monetary policy must remain firmly restrictive to combat these inflationary pressures, which has significant implications for the AUD/USD pair. This hawkish outlook from the RBA may serve to bolster the Australian Dollar, as it implies that interest rates could remain elevated or potentially rise further. Such a stance tends to attract investors seeking higher returns, which can lead to increased demand for the AUD. Consequently, this may deter traders from making aggressive bearish bets against the Australian Dollar, providing a supportive environment for the currency pair. In terms of technical analysis, we are observing key indicators that suggest a potential price surge. Historical price patterns, combined with recent market movements, indicate that the pair could be poised for a rebound. Additionally, the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report supports this outlook, as it reveals positioning trends among institutional traders that align with our bullish expectations. Overall, the combination of a supportive fundamental backdrop, characterized by the RBA's vigilant stance on inflation, alongside favorable technical signals, suggests that the AUD/USD pair is likely to regain upward momentum in the near term. Traders will want to keep a close watch on upcoming economic data and central bank communications, as they could further influence market sentiment and the direction of the pair in the coming days. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Recovers - More Gains Ahead?Market Analysis: AUD/USD Recovers - More Gains Ahead? AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6440. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today - The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6440 and is now recovering against the US Dollar. - There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6480 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen. AUD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair dipped from the 0.6685 resistance zone. The Aussie Dollar declined below 0.6500, but the bulls were active near 0.6440 against the US Dollar. A low was formed near 0.6439 and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the 0.6685 swing high to the 0.6439 low. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6480. The pair is now above 0.6500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the 0.6685 swing high to the 0.6439 low at 0.6560. The first major resistance is near 0.6630. A clear upside break above 0.6630 could send the pair toward 0.6685. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart is near 0.6720, above which the price could rise toward 0.6750. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6800. On the downside, initial support is near 0.6500 or the 50-hour simple moving average. The next support could be the 0.6480 zone. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6440 support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
AUDUSD - Trump continues to influence the dollar!The AUDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of an upward correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see the supply zone and sell within those limits with the appropriate risk reward. As long as the drawn upward trend line is maintained, the target of this corrective movement will be the ceiling of the descending channel. The recent U.S. elections have sparked two contrasting narratives about the country’s economic future. One emphasizes economic growth through tax and regulatory cuts, while the other highlights downside risks stemming from tariffs and overall policy uncertainty. However, the business cycle’s strong performance to date remains a key consideration. Forecasts suggest that U.S. economic growth will slightly slow to 2% in 2025, with unemployment rising modestly to 4.5%. Additionally, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) index is expected to decrease by 0.5% next year, settling at 2.3%. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and reduce them further to 3.75% by the end of Q3 2025. On the trade policy front, significant tariff increases on China are anticipated, though no major changes are expected elsewhere. These tariffs could reduce trade volumes and raise import prices. According to a recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York report, credit application rejection rates in 2024 are projected to be significantly higher than in 2019. The report also indicates that households are expected to be less inclined to apply for credit next year. Rejection rates for mortgage refinancing and auto loans have reached record highs in the survey’s history. Furthermore, the share of Americans refraining from applying for credit due to discouragement is on the rise. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast for Australia downward, citing potential negative spillovers from the expected increase in U.S. tariffs on China. In its 2025 Australia and New Zealand Outlook report, Goldman now predicts a 1.8% rise in Australia’s GDP for next year, down from its earlier 2% forecast. This adjustment reflects the anticipated impact of tariffs on Australia’s exports, given that China is its largest trading partner. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese exports, aiming to protect American businesses and jobs. In response, Chinese President Xi Jinping has remarked that China-Australia relations have maintained a positive trajectory of growth. He emphasized the need for enhanced coordination and cooperation between the two nations, stating that there are no fundamental conflicts of interest between them. Xi also called on Australia to create fairer trade conditions, announcing China’s readiness to increase imports of high-quality Australian products and encourage Chinese companies to invest in the country.
Short
by Ali_PSND