GBPAUD - Short Plan on Fundamentals & Technical BasesFundamental Analysis:
Key indicators, including the LEI and both Endogenous and Exogenous factors, have been steadily declining on a weekly basis. This indicates a weakening outlook for the GBP against the AUD, supporting a bearish perspective on the pair.
Seasonality:
Historically, GBPAUD tends to exhibit a bullish bias during the first week of December, suggesting a potential seasonal opportunity for taking long positions.
COT Report:
Flip data suggests a shift in market sentiment from a bullish to a bearish bias.
Technical Analysis:
The GBPAUD has been in an uptrend, forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) on the 1H timeframe. However, it's showing signs of bearish divergence, aligning with a previous bearish divergence. This creates a potential shorting opportunity if the price breaks below the most recent lower low.
Conclusion:
Even though December typically signals a seasonal buy for GBPAUD, the shift in COT bias, weaker GBP fundamentals, and bearish divergence forming near the upper trendline point to a bearish setup. Here's my shorting plan:
Entry Price: 1.97185 (Sell Stop)
Stop Loss: 1.98440
Take Profit: 1.9593
