XRT trade ideas
XRT Iron CondorBack to the well in XRT - improving some breakevens on my straddle and adding some more theta.
Trade Setup:
-2 XRT Apr 21 39/42/45/48 Iron Condor @ $0.96
DTE: 49
Max Win: $192
Max Loss: $408
Breakevens: 41.04 & 45.96
Trade Management: 50% profit or $96. I'll likely roll the untested side if we get movement. Content with taking a full loser as well with this trade.
Green is profit zone; Vertical black bar is expiration.
Technicals vs FundamentalsI like this channel but I doubt there are chances for another leg into this range top. Thou technically it looks perfect
XRT Put Spread [ROLL]This position is part of the roll I did in part of my smaller XRT Iron Fly. I closed out that position and established this one because we were winding down to expiration (about 2 weeks left) and I needed to do something with it. Off to a negative start for the year in Retail, but not too worried, nonetheless.
Trade Setup:
-1 XRT Apr 21 41/42 Short Put Spread @ $0.35
DTE: 46
Max Win: $35
Max Loss: $65
Breakevens: $41.65
Trade Management: Shooting for 50% on this trade, which would bring the previous trade just about a scratch overall. Full loser on this one otherwise, and maybe roll out further if market keeps moving.
Green is profit zone; vertical black bar is expiration.
XRT Iron FlyStill looking for any IV in the market - XRT had a 35 IVP, so I thought I would put something small on. Focused on minimal BP exposure during these tough times in IV, but I have to keep a decent # of occurrences up regardless.
Trade Setup:
- 1 XRT Mar 17 42/44/44/46 Ironfly @ $1.34
DTE: 30
Max Win: $134
Max Loss: $66
Breakevens : 42.66 and 45.34
Trade Management: Look to take around 25% or $35 in the trade; Full loser on the trade or I may roll out the ITM/tested side if on the dance floor near exp.
Green is profit zone; Vertical black bar is expiration.
THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT, BBY, LOW, XRT AND THE VIXWith earnings in TGT, BBY, and LOW, it's no surprise that implied volatility in the retail ETF, XRT, has ramped up here a bit (sixth month implied volatility rank is 73/implied volatility is 22).
That being said, I'm really only looking at BBY for a play given its implied volatility rank/implied volatility (93/48). HTZ also announces earnings and has the right metrics for a play, but has 2.5 wide strikes where I'd want to set up, so I won't be playing that. TGT and LOW's background implied volatility probably will not be sufficient for me to play (they're in the high 20's/low 30's; I prefer something around or above 50).
Relatedly, however, XRT is starting to "frisk up", so I may consider putting on a fly there if I can do a setup that brings in 1/4th of the width of the long options.
Additionally, VIX spot hasn't moved significantly, but back month VIX futures options have ticked up a bit such that you can get in on a term structure trade in VIX in the May expiry at the 16 strike for a decent credit (e.g., May 16/19 short call vert).
And that's what I'm looking at for the week ... .
$XRT S&P Retail has a bearish trade setup$XRT S&P Retail has a bearish trade setup at major resistance
XRT Has just broken out of a head and shoulders pattern bearishly.. Look to add to your short if you haven't already shorted. This past friday we closed under both the 50 day EMA and 100 day EMA. Price is nearing 200 day EMA so watch for that pressure at 43.99 price point.. Otherwise refer to red line on chart to see where i would set alerts...
Let me know with any questions!
Constructive Criticism is always welcome!
TRADE IDEA: XRT FEB 6TH 41.5/44.5/44.5/48 IRON FLYYou know me, goin' where the volatility takes me, and today it's in the retail space.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $213/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $137/contract
Break Evens: 42.37/46.63
Notes: As with all flies, I'll look to take profit at 25% max. This is based on after hours quotes, so this setup may not be as sexy as it looks now come NY open, so it may need some "tweaking."
XRT bouncing off support zonesStill series of higher lows (uptrend) on weekly.Bounced right off the rising trendline, backtested the weekly breakout trendline as well. small MACD bullish divergence is also seen. Can go long at current prices or better with a stop under weekly close of 42.75-43.
XRT: Retail Shares Tired, Is A Sale Coming?XRT-the retail stocks, have had a nice run from being oversold.
By my measures it is time to lighten up.
XRT-is at a Fibonacci .618 retracement, and there is a lot of over-head supply at about $46.50.
The phase energy is positive (lower indicator on top), but sagging.
RSI / Stochastic (top indicator) is over-bought, and likely to roll over (to the down side) soon.
The Ichimoku Cloud is drifting lower vs its level in May. This indicates a loss in upward momentum.
My opinion:
At best this is dead money. More likely, a decline will start soon.
Good luck to you. Don.
XRT Retail Earnings POTENTIALRetail earnings are in full swing this upcoming week!
Here is a TA based version of my expectations for the week.
In previous quarters the strong USD and the slow down in Consumer Spending hit profits hard.
With retail sales up throughout the quarter and consumer confidence at 2016 high, all around beats are expected.
Driving retail market capitalization back to Q2 2015 level offers a short-term 8% return.
In the longer run, or collectively throughout the remainder of Q2, a 16% return is in the works.
