XRT Bullish inclined Naked Puts 26 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Bullish Stance
XRT are retail discretionary companies and right now there seems to be alot of optimism. Consumers seem to be find paying for the current rising prices of products. I think will continue with the festive period
Sep Consumer Spending has lost momentum but still grew at 1.4%
Sep Personal income was up 0.9%
Current price has broken a key S&R line at 98. My targetted Stike is 86.5 and is below another S&R line 89.
Price to strike is around 14% seems decent especially since the current price movement is very bullish
I Feel
Feel ready to trade, slightly impatient cause I want to lock this in
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
Inflation related concerns might hit anything consumer fronting hard and with the 4 Dec review on the Debt ceiling there might be some concerns and media coverage as we get closer
Bit concern as I was expending to trade in a sideways bearish volatile movement. But the past 2 weeks have made the market very clearly bullish. Trading my original plan seems almost contrarian
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
There is optimism in this trade, however the long cancel on the 3 Nov seems unnaturally long. This means it might gap back into the range
But the bullish momentum matches the current market sentiment and if we are being pure in trading what is in front of us and not making predictions. This is the right decision
Look For New Information
Top 9 out of the top 10 holdings are all up with AEO the highest at 6.26% (American Eagle Outfitters)
How Do I Feel Now
I think this and my VXX trade is very aligned and while it opposes my early market reading - Sideway Bearish Volatile. Purely trading what is in front of me is a clearly Strong Bullish
Trade Specs
Sold 0.38, 70 Put Contracts @ Strike 86.5
% to Strike 14%
ATR % is around 50%
BP used 60k
Max Gain: est $2660
