Like a lot of stocks this week, VNQ gets beaten downLots of real estate stocks in the same situation this week with a steep correction. I'd like to see VNQ cross my purple fib line before feeling like there's safe upward momentum of a new move.
VNQ trade ideas
Vanguard Real Estate ETF - PONZIED - Blowoff TopWelcome to KWorld. *valuation matters. Correction Imminent. The same jobs do not exist. The same need for office space does not exist... Housing... smh.
#oldhead playbook
Epic Economics #investingnfts
Reit's setting up for a breakout to new all time highs VNQ is setting up for a Blue Sky Breakout above $108 in time
We can see the most recent pivot low holding around $101
With a mini pivot vs $104
We would look to entry above $108 with a stop vs the pivot low of $101
Weak mortgage applications print... VNQ about to head south? The mortgage applications print today was somewhat rough and represented an overheated market that's priced out the average citizen homebuyer. Mortgage apps actually declined in growth while building permits exceeded expectations. We can see that VNQ has been highly rangebound since the Covid rally and has failed multiple times to clear local highs at 107. Extremely bearish divergence for the better part of a year and MacD suggesting that any bullish pressure has been completely exhausted. I have no VNQ position but I expect to see this bear trend continue!
VNQ stock seemingly bullishVNQ seems to be on an upwards trend and could be a good move to trade short term, while it also has a lot of merit if held long term as this stock has grown immensely in the last 6 months.
Why Im Watching Real Estate [VNQ]Vanguard Real Estate is showing some interesting things after quietly consolidating since early June. And now, it finds itself in the midst of a breakout of its previous all time high at $105.77. It is still very early, but if the VNQ can confirm any sort of sustained price action above the $105.77 price level on the daily and weekly time frames, fireworks could be in store for the REITs sector of the market.
It should be mentioned that VNQ's price action has not properly back-tested the always important .786 fib level ($99.35) I have plotted here. So a pull back to this level before having enough juice to push decisively through the all time high would not be out of the ordinary.
On the flipside, if the VNQ can get a close above the major level we are at this week, a setup for price to run to $124 could be in the cards in the not-so-distant future.
Housing stocks look bullishHousing stocks are looking to have at least one final push to all-time highs.
I would give this 2 weeks to play out.
BlueWave and Stochastic RSI are confirming the momentum
Housing - DRV Long Calls (VNQ Short)Trade for DRV:
- Long DRV 10C Feb 22, 2022 for 0.5 debit.
- Entered position based on Distribution cycle tending to affect the price in last 20% of the wave.
Target downgap fills:
GLHF
- DPT
Housing - Bubble PopIdea for Housing/REITs (VNQ):
- The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs.
- Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop.
- China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals:
www.bloomberg.com
- State firms ordered to curb overseas commodities exposure.
- Fed continues MBS purchasing with QE, despite RRP skyrocketing. Why? The MBS and Housing bubble is critical, and it is ready to collapse.
- Homebuyer sentiment drops to 10 year low:
finance.yahoo.com
- Homebuilder sentiment declines to reach a 10 month low (NAHB):
news.yahoo.com
- Housing prices being speculated such that locals are priced out of the market. Institutional investors and State-backed institutions buy up neighborhoods as they seek yield in an overheated global market.
- The Credit Cycle has turned down, and the liquidity flows have been shut off. Institutions can no longer bid up their own assets.
- As commodities prices crash, it will become cheaper to build a house than to buy one off the market, leading to increasing supply and decreasing demand.
- When housing no longer provides yield, institutions will dump their assets onto the market and prices will crater.
- MBS's and Lumber leading the crash, the REITs will soon get the hint.
GLHF
- DPT
Tech Stocks done, Now time for Boomer ETFS to pumpRespec the pump min target along the blue fibs
Trust in the biggest exit pump ok?
VNQ Prepare to LongEMA50/EMA200 as support
Near demand Zone
Entry 80
stop 78
Target 86
Plan A: Sell PUT under 80 for now.
Plan B: Buy Call spread in the demand Zone
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
Vanguard Index REIT ETF: Buy & Hold: USAHappy New Year
By Sun Storm Investment Research
A Profit & Solutions Strategy
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, so please do your own research before trading anything
Real Estate and Long BondsRates rates rates. Lower interest rates in the US are a tailwind for US RE and result in US RE outperforming Global Ex-US Real Estate.
The US RE vs. Global Ex-US RE ratio is breaking down is priced at January 2020 levels
VNQ ITM CCDTE: 100
Ext: $2.85
Breakeven: $76.15 (7.8% below)
Div: $3.24 (3.9%)
Ext ROC: 3.4% (2.85/82.62)
Ann: 12.6%
WORSE THAN 2008!THE FED'S HOLDINGS OF MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES IS GROWING FASTER THAN DURING THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS!
QUARTERLY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES JUST SMASHED THE PREVIOUS RECORD FROM 2008!
THE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE MARKET IS IMPLODING!
MARKETS ARE COMPLETELY IGNORING THIS FACT!
Can Someone Explain To Me Why People Buy REIT's?It looks like they have structurally underperformed the market as a whole, and even with the yield differential being +2%, they still get crushed. Seems like a lot of people are paying a lot for weak-ish cash flow and "peace of mind". It looks like the only time they outperformed was between 2009 and 2010 after getting obliterated compared to the market.
