USO trade ideas
USO - 1hrLong USO, however price is nearing resistance in a potential complex corrective rally off the January lows. A new high in price on divergent technicals could initiate a pull-back. The nature of this supposed pull-back will offer clues as to whether the low is in, or if on final decline lies ahead. Decline - should it develop - could extend below 7.00.
Given the February low was seen on a clear 3 waves down (labeled (x) here) I'm not confident in longer-term bullish prospects considering the Elliott Wave. Only a solid 5-up, 3-down holding support, and taking out the top of that initial 5-up would increase probabilities substantially in favor of a meaningful low last month.
USO can be scalped intraday, enter in bottom of channel.Long 9.66 -9.81 area. Tight stops if scalping. Rinse and repeat. Breach of 9.64 could be a ss trigger.
USO - DailyUSO has bounced between the 23.6 and 38.2 retrace measured between waves circle ii-iii. This is a typical target for wave iv, although the complex expanded flat w-x-y was a beast to trade. Fourth waves are notorious for trading difficulty. I'm anticipating one more low to complete this long-term correction. Overlapping action off the lows is not suggestive of a major bottom in my opinion. Price may prove me wrong however. The target box for circle iv indicated on the 38.2% of this chart is reachable, but its not necessary for price to hit this target before turning lower.
Short on USO after Iran commentsSeems like a good short on oil @ these point, lets see if the triangle pattern will brake
Ending Diagonal in Oil with a Weak 5thEnding diagonals almost always reverse quickly with a deep retrenchment. Expect an overlapping upward correction to ~38, the previous (iv) over the next 8 months. Its been a long slow decent, so probably a quicker upper correction.
The oil sell off isn't over yet.A lot of people have called bottom for oil but I am inclined to think that it still has room to fall. I think this last mini rally was a combination of people calling bottom and the third short squeeze (albeit a small one) since this time last year. Once the short covering is done the bears will take over again.
Hop in short and wait for stops to start triggering when all of these short sellers are done covering and the bottom callers were wrong to continue the downtrend, throw in Saudi Arabia and how they claimed that they are willing to drop and hold at $20/barrel as long as it takes to ensure all of the companies with high production costs are forces to end operations, and oil has a lot more room on the downside before it begins a recovery.
BOUGHT TO CLOSE USO JAN 17 7/APRIL 1ST 8.5 SYNTHETIC LONGClosing this synthetic long USO play here for a small profit. My timing was a bit off as to entry (I went long on the break of the 2009 low at 32.70), and we may have seen the short-term end of the up move here.
Will consider reloading another synthetic long now that a new low of some kind has been put in ... .
USO hourly RSI double backed on support to go longNotice the horizontal RSI trend line, has been resistance since november, and it broke, so it's now support. If this support doesn't hold, which there's a chance it may not since it's overbought, the RSI will reach the diagonal RSI bull trend. This one has a very high probability of holding because it matches the price action's up trend.
USO - IHS in Play!If today we close above the neck line, we could see $10.30 in next couple of days! Lots of shorts will scramble to cover and that would fuel the possible rally!
USO - 1hUSO is approaching the end of a major correction. This pattern may resolve in one more low (OML) into the target box as shown with green (v). The alternative, shown in yellow, is an expanded flat for wave (c) of alt circle iv. Regardless, the time for shorting oil has nearly ended, except on short-term swings or day trades. Preparing to build a long position with verification of a significant low. See USO - Daily analysis idea for additional detail.
MACD and other momentum indicators should build positive divergence on the low, although positive divergence on all time frames is not guaranteed.
Analysis based on Elliott Wave principles augmented by Fibonacci extensions and retracements.
USO - Oil at resistance and 50MAUSO is right at its 50MA and previous resistance. While the longer time frames indicate oil wants to go higher, I see risk off until confirmation
USO, Which way will it go?USO on the verge of making a breakout move, again...
Which way will it goe
USO potential breakout short termUSO potential $9 breakout in progress with $11 max at top of resistance line
USO Short-Term ReversalNot much time to write my underlying thoughts on the fundamentals at the moment, but in short I am contrarian. Production caps don't resolve the shortage of storage in the United States. Moreover, the glut will continue in the presence of weak economic data. I suspect this to be yet another false potential breakout to the upside. Note CL1 (Day Chart). We've been trading in a downward channel for an extended period of time now.
USO JAN 17 7 LONG CALL/APR 1ST 8.5 SHORT CALL DIAGONALTruth be told, things like calendars and diagonals are best suited for a low volatility environment, but I'm looking for a bullish assumption setup in oil that offers me some flexibility over a larger time frame than, for example, a 45 DTE credit spread would (which is generally just a "one and done" kind of thing). As an alternative to a covered call, I'm going long-dated diagonal here since I can do it more cheaply/smaller than buying USO outright (although at 8.33 a share, it's pretty cheap to begin with).
Here's the setup, although it's off hours and the option pricing is unlikely to be accurate:
USO Jan 17 7 Long Call/Apr 1st 8.5 short call diagonal
Max Profit: Undeterminable
Buying Power Effect: $1.52 debit/contract
Notes: You want to work this setup like a covered call, leaving the long option untouched as you roll the short option to rake in credit for the life of the trade, taking the entire setup off when the amount of credits received exceeds the debit you paid to put it on by some measure. Naturally, you can also continue to work the short call for credit all the way toward long call expiration as long as it remains profitable to do so. This is why the max profit of the setup is "indeterminable" -- it all depends on when you take the trade off and how much credit you've received for it up to that point.
Setting up for a squeeze soonFalling wedge would need a break to the upside (RSI/MACD bull divergence)
