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$SPY Why We Will Continue Down / Bear Market Not FinishedWhat is Federal Funds Rate? The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other overnight on an uncollateralized basis. It is the interest rate at which banks can borrow or lend money in the federal funds market. The Federal Reserve uses the federal funds rate as a tool to implement monetary policy and control inflation. By raising or lowering the federal funds rate, the Federal Reserve can influence the overall level of interest rates in the economy, thereby impacting economic growth and inflation. How Does Federal Funds Rate Affect The Economy? The Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can have a significant impact on the overall economy. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it makes borrowing money more expensive for banks, which in turn makes borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses. This can slow down economic growth by making it more difficult for companies to expand and for consumers to purchase big-ticket items like homes and cars. On the other hand, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate, it makes borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic growth by making it easier for businesses to expand and for consumers to purchase big-ticket items. Lowering the federal funds rate can also help to combat inflation by making it less expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can help to keep prices stable. The Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can also affect the stock market, currency exchange rate, and bond market. In summary, the Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can have a significant impact on the economy by affecting interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. What is the Projection of Federal Funds Rate In 2023? Due to Ukraine and COVID, this has led to a historic rise in interest rates. This means that borrowing costs are increased, saving becomes more attractive/less spending, and stock prices may decrease/bonds favored. Markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates again on February 1, 2023, likely by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%-4.75%. However, there’s a reasonable chance the Fed opts for a larger 0.5 percentage point hike. Hope this helps.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Smarter_Trades
15
SPY The Target Is DOWN! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 602.45 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 588.60 My Stop Loss - 609.83 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
10
Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction: A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety. For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics. Analysis: Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds. Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years. Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY). Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels) Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
SPY Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart). Nov. 29, 2024Market Overview: SPY is showing a mix of consolidation and minor recovery from recent selling pressure, with price action testing key levels. The overall structure remains in an upward trend on larger timeframes but appears to be encountering short-term resistance. Key Observations: 1. Trend Line: * A rising trend line was recently broken, indicating potential weakness. The price is now consolidating below this level, showing a retest scenario. * If SPY reclaims the trend line with strong momentum, it could suggest renewed bullishness. 2. Support & Resistance: * Support Levels: * $595.24: A strong intraday support, acting as a pivot point. * $590: The next significant support zone to watch if selling accelerates. * Resistance Levels: * $601.33-$602.13: Immediate resistance; a break above could attract buyers. * $605: A psychological resistance level. 3. MACD: * The MACD is in a bearish crossover but is starting to flatten, indicating a potential slowdown in selling pressure. * Look for a bullish crossover as a signal for upward momentum. 4. Volume: * Volume has decreased, reflecting the holiday week. Light volume could lead to exaggerated price moves, so caution is warranted. Trading Plan: Scalping: * Bullish Setup: * Entry: Above $601.33. * Target: $603.50-$605. * Stop-Loss: Below $599. * Bearish Setup: * Entry: Below $595. * Target: $590-$592. * Stop-Loss: Above $597. Swing Trade: * Bullish Swing: * Entry: On a daily close above $602. * Target: $610. * Stop-Loss: Below $599. * Bearish Swing: * Entry: Below $590 with confirmation. * Target: $585. * Stop-Loss: Above $592. My Thoughts: * SPY’s ability to reclaim and hold above the broken trend line will dictate the next move. A failure to reclaim could result in a continued pullback. * Watch the $601-$602 zone closely for signs of a breakout or rejection. * Given the low-volume environment due to the shortened trading week, consider smaller position sizes to manage risk. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence and use proper risk management when trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-27: BreakAway PatternHappy day before Thanksgiving, everyone. Stay safe this holiday and remember to share hugs and love with all the people that are the most important in your life. Trading will be there tomorrow and the next day - always. Family, health, and loved ones always come before trading/work. Today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I suspect the SPY will still struggle near the 600 level and possibly REJECT into a downward price trend over the next 5+ trading days. The QQQ is showing a very clear Flagging formation whereas the SPY is showing more overall strength. Gold and Silver make a big GAP move higher. This is nice to see. I still believe Gold will attempt to rally above $3000 before the end of 2024 and Silver will attempt to rally above $35 before the end of 2024. Bitcoin is now moving into a projected consolidation phase. The pending breakdown phase may see Bitcoin move down to the $74k to GETTEX:82K level. Buckle up. Remember, we are going to have Thanksgiving holiday and shortened trading hours. If you have not already moved a large portion of your capital into CASH, you could be taking unwanted risks. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Bull & Bear Options for Week of 11/25 (184-210% Last Week)We are back after another banger week for SPY options. Last week's $590 Call 12/2 confirmed twice off $586 returning intraday gains of 48-67% on Tuesday & Wednesday and reaching highs on Monday 11/25 of 184-210% Here are this week's options: Range: $583-$598 ($590 mid-point) $595 PUT 12/9 Entry: 15-min candle close BELOW $598.67 Targets: $595.50, White trendline Stop: 15-min candle close ABOVE $598.67 $605 CALL 12/9 Entry: 15-min candle close ABOVE $598.67, 15-min retest and close ABOVE $598.67 Targets: $601, $605 Stop-loss: 15-min candle close UNDER $598.67
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
1
SPY Double Top Triple Top?Possible Double or Triple Top on AMEX:SPY ? The SPY has been hitting the same resistance level of 600.80 for the past two days. First, on November 24, 2024, and again on November 25, 2024, before pulling back. This repeated testing of the same level raises the question: are we forming a double or triple top? Will the SPY fail to break through this level, or will it finally push past it? Only time will tell, but we should be aware of this potential technical pattern. Double Top Two consecutive peaks: Two highs occur near the same price level, with a moderate decline between them. Valley in between: A noticeable low forms between the two peaks, which serves as a support level. Neckline: A line connecting the valley lows forms the neckline. Breakdown: The price breaks below the neckline, confirming the Double Top pattern. Volume: Decreasing volume on the second peak and increasing volume on the breakdown.
AMEX:SPY
by Paul_Hodls
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next. Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle. The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that? If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week. I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure. The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver. If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down. I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen. So, be prepared just in case. Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD. Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
How Black Friday Could Impact the Stock Market in 2024How Black Friday Could Impact the Stock Market in 2024 Black Friday, one of the most anticipated and significant days in retail, falls on the Friday following Thanksgiving in the United States. This day is considered an early indicator of the success of the Christmas shopping season and can serve as a trigger for the so-called "Santa Claus rally" – a period of stock market growth typically observed from late December to early January. Let’s explore how Black Friday might influence the stock markets this year. Fundamental Analysis According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Many analysts view stimulating consumer spending as key to sustaining economic activity. Thus, Black Friday sales figures are often seen as a vital indicator of the nation’s economic health. In 2024, Black Friday takes on added importance amid the Federal Reserve's recent cycle of interest rate cuts. Consumer spending levels during the sales period will reflect the current state of the economy, which could influence the Fed's future monetary policy direction. Impact on the U.S. Stock Market From 2001 to 2023, trends in the S&P 500 index around Black Friday have been variable, though generally positive. For example, the S&P 500 gained more than 1% in 2001, 2007, and 2012, while in 2009, it fell by 1.7%. This variability highlights the difficulty of finding a consistent annual pattern. However, retail stocks often display discernible trends during this period. As noted by Yahoo Finance, some companies’ shares have shown positive momentum in the week before and after Black Friday. Historically: - Between 2013 and 2023, the retail sector outperformed the S&P 500 in late November. - From 2007 to 2017, certain retail stocks within the S&P 500 delivered returns of up to 5%, compared to the index’s average return of 3% during the same period. Technical Analysis It’s not always straightforward. A comparison of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) and Walmart (WMT), one of the largest retail corporations, illustrates differing dynamics. The chart below highlights fluctuations: - Blue line: S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) - Orange line: Walmart stock (WMT) Vertical lines mark Black Friday periods in 2022 and 2023. Key observations: - In 2022, Black Friday coincided with a market decline. Historically, the stock market was near critical highs, leading to heightened selling pressure. - In 2023, Black Friday acted as a driver for both Walmart shares and the S&P 500. Black Friday 2023 According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), approximately 200 million people shopped during Black Friday 2023, spending an average of $321.41 per person – a historic record. Major retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target benefited primarily through their online platforms and effective marketing strategies, as more consumers opted for the convenience of e-commerce. What Should Traders Expect from Black Friday 2024? NRF forecasts suggest that in 2024: - About 34% of Americans will shop on Black Friday. - Spending is expected to reach another record high, with a 3% increase compared to 2023. Furthermore, 71% of consumers surveyed by Deloitte indicated they plan to shop online, underscoring the ongoing shift toward e-commerce. However, predicting the exact market behaviour around Black Friday 2024 is challenging. Each year is shaped by unique political and economic factors. While rising consumer spending could boost company earnings and lead to an upward trend in the S&P 500, individual factors will play a significant role. Traders will need to focus on macro trends and specific company performance indicators. FAQ Does Black Friday Have a Positive Impact on the Stock Market? Black Friday's impact on the U.S. stock market is mixed. While it offers valuable fundamental data to analyse broader economic trends and consumer sentiment, its overall effect on the market is hard to track. However, Black Friday often has a more noticeable impact on retail stocks, as strong sales volumes directly influence their financial performance. Are Stock Markets Open on Black Friday? In 2024, Black Friday falls on 29 November, and U.S. stock markets will close earlier than usual. You can find more detailed information here. Where Did the Term "Black Friday" Originate? The term "Black Friday" has two main origins. The first is linked to a financial crisis in the United States in 1869 when a collapse in gold prices caused widespread market turmoil. The second explanation comes from 1960s Philadelphia, where local police coined the term to describe the chaos caused by large crowds of shoppers and tourists during the annual Army-Navy football game weekend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by FXOpen
2