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2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP Tuesday - UP Wednesday - UP Thursday - UP SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!! I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings. CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting. Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SPY: WAVE 3SPY is approaching the 0.786 fib retracement of wave 1. For wave 2, the standard is 0.618, but can go much higher. The condition of wave 2 is that it must not exceed wave 1. With today's run-up, we see volume exceptionally low. This should sound the alarm for traders and is showing me warning signs of a very large reversal. I am anticipating the largest drop in a single day that we have seen this year to come within the next few trading days. This drop will begin the start of wave 3 (the largest of the 5 waves) and many stocks that I follow are showing similar setups. All stocks that I have posted on this week are still within their range and I have not changed my thesis on them. META and AMD especially. Be patient for this setup. My target for the completion of Wave 3 is 464 (161.8% of wave 1). PT1 494, PT2 483
AMEX:SPYShort
by FiboTrader1
21
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-15 : Where's The Counter-Trend MoveIn this video, I explain how news or data-driven events can substantially obscure the SPY Cycle Pattern price trends. My SPY Cycle Patterns are predictions based on Fibonacci & Gann cycles. They attempt to predict typical market price characteristics and trends. When some outside news, data, or other event hits that changes market dynamics enough to drive price in a stronger upward or downward trend, the SPY Cycle Patterns may invalidate or get skewed behind the momentum of the "event" trend. With today's price bar, I believe the closing of the European markets (near Noon in NY) and the end of lunch in NY have a much better chance of seeing prices fall back into the counter-trend Carryover pattern I predicted for today. That means, this afternoon, we may see price roll downward and attempt to move back towards support - just like I would typically expect to see with a counter-trend Carryover pattern. Let's see what happens. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Squeeze after PPI and CPILast week we predicted a squeeze during the week of PPI and CPI. The TVC:VIX has also a target for weakness. However, the value play on the VIX is diminishing after this week. Oil and gold is in a weird situation. I had originally predicted Oil to outperform Gold over the next 30 cycle creating some divergence. We'll see that divergence plays out more in the coming weeks. If the divergence does happen, it will like throw the rising Japanese Yen off kilter. The indices remain quite bullish on the higher frame. All macro points to higher end of year as CPi is now under 3, liquidity, jobs and consumption remains acceptably strong.
AMEX:SPYLong
by KJKaramay
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-15 : Huge Bullish Gap On DataPlease take a minute to watch this video and try to understand why this big bullish price gap is data-related. Today, the data suggests Retail and Manufacturing are still clicking right along. We are not seeing any big decline in the US economy, and that means the US Fed will not consider dropping rates as inflation levels seem to be elevated. This is also part of why I believe the US economy will "decouple" from many global economies over the next 12 to 24+ months. If you remember, I suggested a VORTEX RALLY would start near the end of July 2024. Well, guess what is happening now? The US markets are setting up a BASE for the Vortex Rally. We are not in lift-off mode yet. We still need to be cautious of any potential news event (political or otherwise) ahead of the US POTUS election. Once we approach or pass the US 2024 election, I think we'll be able to be more aggressive about continuing the Vortex Rally phase. FYI, I will be flipping to BULLISH tomorrow. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-15 : Counter-Trend CarryoverA Counter-Trend Carryover pattern is a "coasting" of price in an opposite trend direction. So, for today, I expect the price to stay somewhat within yesterday's range while trending downward. I don't expect yesterday's lows to be broken/breached - although it could happen. I believe today will be more like a pause in price before attempting another move higher. Today's pause may be very mellow in structure/size. I believe the SPY/QQQ are biased to the upside, so I expect this price pause to stay above recent support levels. Watch this video to see why I believe the recent upper range of the Gap will act as firm support for an upward price move into next week. We have to wait for the markets to return to Trending mode. 60% of trading is WAITING for the opportune setups. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SPY: Breaking Important Resistance Levels. |WEEKLY UPDATE|The SPY is making an excellent recovery move, which could turn into a real bullish reversal if it continues at this pace. In our last analysis, last week (when the SPY was at $120), we had already identified a change in sentiment, and warned of a recovery in the medium term. Once again, we managed to get the movement right. In addition. last week we mentioned the gaps that are still open above the price, and yesterday we closed the second one, which was at $539.43. What's more, the SPY is above the 21-day EMA, entering bullish territory again. So far we don't see a top signal that could reverse the bullish sentiment, but if the price falls so far as to cancel out yesterday's bullish candle, we'll be in trouble. For now, the situation seems under control, and in the absence of evidence suggesting a bearish reversal, the uptrend will continue, and the next target is at the next resistance at $554.86. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
AMEX:SPY
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
SPY - Bearish Until Proven OtherwiseMarkets have been on a tear to the downside in the recent weeks after hitting all time highs with a recent sharp pullback on Japan currency news, highlighting the sensitivity in the market today. After a clear trend has been identified to the downside, the market is leaving some clues behind on where we may see pivot points through the supply / demand zones. I have my eyes on a short trade at the previous range value area low, where we also have a large gap to fill at the supply zone. I do believe we are currently bearish, and only bullish if we can reclaim the value area low from previous weeks. My trade idea is relatively simple here , involving the gaps above and below us. Short zone at 540 , bringing it down to around 500-505 where we left a large gap from the May pivot low. Only time will tell...
AMEX:SPYShort
by afurs1
2H SPY scenario. next fews days up. Hit resistance, head lowerHello folks, Inflation data looking good, job market weakening. Following good news of last few days. Market is going to head higher slowly until it hit resistance. Expect a drop down from there like previous technical analysis is showing. After that long term seems juicy. Very short term, caution. Long term its buy Have to remember that no one can predict the future. I try to asses the market based on technical and fundamental analysis. None of this should be considered financial advice.
AMEX:SPYLong
by thedecentHQ
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-14 : Today Is A RALLY DayToday is a RALLY day on my SPY Cycle Patterns. After the recent base/bottom in the SPY and the subsequent reversion to the upside - I expect today's rally to be somewhat muted in size. I'm not expecting a large range rally bar to form today - although it could happen. The reason I'm not expecting a huge rally bar today is because we've already seen a very strong upward price move - particularly yesterday's Breakaway pattern. I see the markets right now: they've already moved substantially higher (more than 61% of the recent downtrend) and are likely to stall out a bit before attempting to move higher. Price never moves in a straight upward or downward trend. There are always pauses, pullbacks, or countertrends along the broader price trend, and traders need to expect them as the broader trend plays out. Today, I'm expecting the price to attempt to melt upward but, at the same time, reflect a "pause" in the rally phase—essentially, slow down the rally phase a bit. I do believe the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) may offer traders a great opportunity. The undervalued sectors have been weaker than the main US Indexes. The Russell may trend broadly higher today in an attempt to play "catch-up" with the other indexes. Gold may be making another big move higher - possibly starting the second leg upward. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
SPDR S&P 500 Potential Downtrend Line Break $542.70 14.08.2024Apply risk management Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350) Disclaimer
AMEX:SPYLong
by Stuart_Cowell
SPY Critical Resistance Test Before CPISPY has bounced all the way back up to where the selling really started to accelerate before the big gap down last Monday. Not only do we have horizontal resistance here back from some lows in June, but we also have a trendline retest. This trendline formed over a few weeks and held several times as support before we gapped down below and continued lower. We have several trendlines and resistance levels like this you can see across the entire market. NQ is also retesting a major trend break and VX is sitting at support. I consider this to be a bearish setup, but I think it'll break hard either way. Not sure if we'll get a big reaction to CPI tomorrow after today's rally on PPI or not. There's many potential catalysts to watch out for including fed rate cuts, extended global conflict and war, a weakening consumer leading to more bankruptcies and credit defaults which will put even more pressure on banks when the time comes. We can speculate about these things all day, but at the end of the day it is all about the charts and price action. I like to speculate, but trading based off of speculation is not typically a winning strategy. I'll focus on the charts from here and react accordingly. Nothing can surprise me at this point, should be an interesting finish to the week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by AdvancedPlays
$SPY August 14, 2024AMEX:SPY August 14, 2024 15 Minutes. The extension drawn from 510 to 531.59 to 518 achieved its target of 540 today. As said it was a no trade day for me as i had no setup in 15 minutes. AMEX:SPY held the gap today and as written many times gaps need not get filled. In fact, unfilled gaps denote strength. If we consider the fall 554.86 to 510.28 AMEX:SPY today has retraced 61.8% around 538 levels. Also, for the last rise 531.76 to 542.28 537-538 is 38.2 and 50% retracement. So, for the day holding 537-538 i will have a target 544-546 levels. I will look for a sell only below 535 for only couple $ as 200 is around 530. Hence i will not short today.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RiderTrader
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 8-13 : Perfect Breakaway RallyToday's SPY Cycle Pattern, the Breakaway in Trending mode, appears to have been a perfect call for today's price action. We have seen an impressive rally take place all morning long. I know it's hard to believe my SPY Cycle Patterns can predict a market trend/rally like this, especially when you consider these predictions are made months and years in advance. But when you look at how price plays out most of the time, these patterns actually predict market price characteristics as long as some type of panic or crisis mode doesn't intervene. Tomorrow's rally pattern should be more like what we see today. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Crash on SPY mid OctoberDont trust any of my analysis. I am just a guy who has been investing for over a decade and down over 100k on options. Anywho, I have been looking for "the big short" since 2016 and have missed about every opportunity and blown my account up. I also was long Dogecoin and sold my 4k position that would have turned into over a million if I sold at the .70 cent pop, gambled the cash in options and lost that as well. Now I am looking at a crash in mid october. My plan is to build cash now, short mid october on SPY, then when the crash is over roll the earnings into Shib. I plan on getting rich using Shib and selling my position in the money then relaxing while we all wait to die. I wont hold Shib long term because I assume you will need to take the mark of the beast to use the electronic money. Long term physical silver is where I plan to sit. Good day.
AMEX:SPY
by mrbonfiglio