SPY trade ideas
SPY GAP UP WILL BE FILLED SOON AMEX:SPY
If you went short on SPY and sitting uncomfortable today, watch this chart label and take it easy. These gaps will eventually get filled and for today's 9/19/2024 gap up it will be filled soon.
cheers fellow traders !
SPY - Taking Some Pain Augghhhh Taking some pain with my short position, but not the first time I have been here. Going to see where we are closer to close of the day or perhaps tomorrow to see if I should close out.
1) I don't want to be short if this market breakout sticks. That could be really painful and I may just have to blow this out and take my loss.
2) I don't want to close out my short if this is just a knee jerk reaction, short covering or firms having to buy stock to cover short calls.
So I will just be patient here and see how the day plans out.
Updating as I don't want you to think I am hiding over a bad trade. Bad Trades happen, losses happen, I am indifferent to a loss since I stick with my strategy.
AND YES THIS IS REAL MONEY NOT LIKE THOSE FAKE GURUS WHO CAN'T EVEN AFFORD A MARGIN ACCOUNT.
SPY500 $SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024SPY AMEX:SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $552.50 - $575.00
WEAKER BULLISH ZONE (PALE GREEN): $552.50 - $540.50
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
This was my analysis for the end of the day yesterday, forgot to post it. Price has already rallied fairly well today. The Fed cut rates yesterday 50bps, down from 5.50 to 5.00. Here is what I was looking at as the market became volatile when reacting to the news. Despite the market already quickly moving in favor of the bullish zone, I still think we will reach the top of that zone before any form of reversal or significant pullback.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, sp500, s&p, AMEX:SPY , fed, federalreserve, fedrate, fedratecut, interestrate, jeromepowell, fedchair, 50bps, volatile, volatility,
SPY: Week of Sept 16Switching it up with a written post this week.
It has been a very interesting market lately. Bear market volatility with a continued bull market undertone.
The volatility has been stemming, likely, from the onslaught of economic data that has whipsawed the rate cut probabilities as fast as it has whipsawed the price action.
As of now, we are back to a fairly optimistic outlook for rate cuts.. at least, a higher probability of rate cuts.
If you check on the CME FedWatch site, you will see that it is split down the middle.
The probability of a 25 BPS cut is...50%. The probability of a 50 BPS cut is .. 50%.
If it wasn't so annoying, it would be funny, I'm sure.
Over the course of the last 3 weeks, we have went from 40% probability of a 50 BPS cut, to sub 40, to over 50 and now to 50.
And really what it comes down to is what this rate cut actually is, 25 or 50? Market is expecting, from my understanding, a 50 BPS cut. Anything below that will likely cause further selling.
However, getting a 50 BPS cut will resume the bull market thesis per norm.
My bet is 50 at this point because there are still a tad bit more bullish indications than bearish, i.e. that still unhit high prob on SPX which puts SPY above 570.
Anyway, as I am not a fundamental analyst and all of these fundamentals BORE ME TO DEATH, let's get into what math, models and projections say for next week!
Outlook for next week is Bullish with a hint of whipsaw. Makes sense given the fact that this is the long anticipated week of the rate cut announcement!
We also have came so close yesterday (Friday) to hitting that high prob target on the month of 563, but it just fell short:
This target has to be hit, the probability we don't hit it is 3%.
The ARIMA outlook for next week is positive and has us uptrending:
At day 5, arima has the 95% UCL (95% probability we close below) at 595, and the 95% LCL (95% probability we close above) at 564. That's a HELL of an aggressive forecast for ARIMA, essentially saying we are closing the week next week in the 560s if all goes to plan.
I have to say, I am skeptical, but ARIMA has always done me well, so I will be mindful of these levels for sure.
Our generic price targets are in the main chart above, but essentially the forecasted high for next week, assuming a bullish thesis, is 569. And since 69 is my favourite number, then I suspect its going to be the one.
The forecasted low, assuming bearish, is 552.
Both price targets are possible given the outlook of bullish whipsaw, so keep that in mind.
And at the end of the day it really does lean into the fundamentals this week. You really need to pay attention to that rate decision.
All in all, those are my thoughts.
Once market opens I will have a whole slew of new data and probs, so can update if anything is particularly interesting then.
Otherwise, safe trades and have a great weekend!
SPY After FOMC TA for 9/18/2024FOMC release, a few key points emerge for scalping the next day:
Price Levels:
Support Zones:
561.38: Strong area of support shown by volume shelf on the volume profile. Buyers have stepped in around this level, making it crucial for intraday scalping.
560.83: Another support level where substantial volume has accumulated.
Resistance Levels:
568.68: Marked as the high, which could act as the upper resistance. If SPY moves into a bullish momentum, this would be a key profit-taking zone.
Volume Profile: The volume profile shows heavy volume accumulation between 560-561, indicating consolidation around this area. A breakout or breakdown from this level will likely lead to stronger price movement.
Stochastic RSI: Stochastic RSI shows a bullish crossover near oversold conditions, indicating potential upside momentum for tomorrow. This aligns with SPY’s bounce during the FOMC session, suggesting that bulls are gaining some control.
FOMC Impact and Direction:
After FOMC announcements, SPY tends to be more volatile as traders digest the news. The current chart suggests a neutral to bullish bias heading into tomorrow. SPY bounced back from the 561 support, and if the momentum continues, the next key level to watch would be 565 and then 568.68 for potential breakouts.
Scalping Strategy for Tomorrow:
Bullish Scenario:
Entry: Around 563.50 - 564, which is close to the support/resistance flip area after the FOMC reaction. Use tighter stop losses to limit risk.
Exit 1: 565.50 - 566 (quick profit target if resistance holds).
Exit 2: 568.68 (if momentum is strong, this level could be tested).
Stop-loss: Below 561.50, to protect from downside volatility.
Bearish Scenario (if there's a gap down):
Entry: Around 561, just below the volume shelf. If SPY breaks below this zone, there could be a sharp sell-off.
Exit 1: 560.00, which is a psychological level, aligning with volume gaps.
Exit 2: 558.50, a lower level where buyers might step in.
Stop-loss: Above 564, to avoid whipsaw losses.
Thought Process:
Upside Momentum: Given the bullish crossover on the stochastic and the bounce from key support during the FOMC, it’s likely SPY will test 565+ levels, though this could depend on overnight futures and early morning sentiment.
Watch for Breakouts/Breakdowns: Pay attention to how SPY reacts around the 561-564 range for clearer direction tomorrow.
Use tight stops and react to price action as liquidity from FOMC can cause unexpected spikes or drops.
$SPY September 19, 2024AMEX:SPY September 19, 2024
15 Minutes.
For the fall 568.68 to 560.84 buy is above 566 only.
I will go long on a retracement at 554-555 levels.
Will short only below 550 levels as of now.
Last 8 bars are not good in chart.
So, no trade today.
SPX IS LOOKING VERY BEARISH I think SPX500 is topped out and a very bearish pattern is printed.
1. weekly chart has a hanging man confirmed
2. gap down from hanging man has now been closed on weakness
3. lower time frame charts has triple tops
4. MACD has been decelerating since July 22, 2024.
What To Expect After The Fed rate Cut: 9-18-2024 (Fed Day)This video is really designed to teach you some basics about Fibonacci Price Theory (FPT) Analysis. I wanted to show you how I see the charts using FPT and why, sometimes, I might be seeing things differently than you do on the charts.
In my world, there are simple constructs that are evident on every chart. Supply & Demand zones, trending/flagging, and most importantly Fibonacci Price Theory constructs.
Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis of all my analysis. It is the ground-level structure I look for in price on all charts. Then, I move to more advanced indicators and other analysis types to develop a Success/Failure outcome (trend/trade expectation).
What I do is not hard to understand - it just takes practice.
Fibonacci & Gann techniques are infinitely adaptable to any type of price action. I use another technique I call the Tesla Price Amplitude Arcs which often help me identify where/when price events may happen - but that is for another video (maybe).
Ultimately, it comes down to understanding the structure and intent of price action (either success or failure) and how to position your trades for that success or failure of any price event.
There are really two types of traders: trend traders and counter-trend traders.
Trend traders try to catch the explosive price moves as trend events.
Counter-trend traders try to catch major reversal levels in price and try to profit from counter-trend price moves (reversals/reversions).
Using FPT, you can learn to execute both type of trading styles and improve your ability to see the market trends/setups more clearly.
I hope this video helps you learn to become a better trader and helps you understand my Plan Your Trade videos more clearly. At least you'll be able to understand how I see charts and what drives much of my thinking related to chart.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY liquid clear coming to 555You will see the lower targets as posted before. This will be the liquid clear before pulling back up to current level then higher.
A STOCK MARKET CRASH IS COMING! WARNING! I hope you guys enjoyed the video! If you have any questions or comments feel free to Ask!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-18 : Gap Potential & Fed DayThis video pretty much covers everything I've been telling all of you over the past 5+ days.
Yes, I'm planning on waiting out the consolidation/early trading today and waiting through the Fed decision. There is no reason to jump in front of a moving train attempting to change its direction or speed. You just get run over and beat up.
So, I'm going to take a break this morning, watching the markets and waiting for the Fed rate decision.
While I did look at some data points this morning, the one thing that caught my attention was the Mortgage Refinance Index. That index has jumped more than 45% over the past 12-16+ months while mortgage rates are still above 6%.
I believe this is an indication that ARM borrowers are under some pressure now (after roughly 36 months) to refinance and are dealing with higher rates. 2024-3 = 2021.
Those hot to buy anything after the COVID pandemic may have signed into ARM loans with a 3-year rate guarantee - which may now be rolling into fully adjustable rate loans. That would push the refinance index higher as these homeowners attempt to wiggle their way into something more realistic than the 6.5 to 7.5% rates on their ARMs now.
In my opinion, this is the only thing that may prompt the Fed to lower rates a bit - the pressure on a small segment of home owners in ARM loans that need some relief.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY September 18, 2024AMEX:SPY September 18, 2024
15 Minutes
AMEX:SPY managed to make an ATH at 566.57.
Now for the rise 539.95 to 566.57 it is important to hold 560.
Below that weakness can be seen for a target 554 +-1 levels. So shorting is not worth.
If AMEX:SPY manages to hold 563-566 levels, we can see 574 +- as a target for the longs.
A retracement is on cards due to oscillator divergence. or a sideways moment between 560-566 levels.
On a daily level, if AMEX:SPY consolidated between 556-566 levels i expect 574 as initial target.
Again. Not the time for shorts for me.
Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 ETF (SPY) New All-Time High SuggestShort term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 ETF (SPY) suggests that cycle from 8.5.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 564.2 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 539.44. The ETF has extended to new all-time high in wave (3). The internal subdivision of wave (3) takes the form of another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 549.34 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 539.96. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 556.85 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 552.74. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 566.58 which completed wave 1 in higher degree.
Pullback in wave 2 is in progress to correct cycle from 9.7.2024 low with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 560.79. Expect wave ((b)) to fail below 566.58 for another leg lower in wave ((c)) to complete wave 2. Afterwards, the ETF should then resume higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 537.86 low stays intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
S&P 500 still bullishThe Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates tomorrow. The S&P 500 has already priced in the rate cut. The price action finished an elongated Wave 3 which usually results in a short Wave 5. However, the S&P 500 is expected to remain bullish well into October. The SPY will perhaps reach a high of 590-600
The SPY hunt is back on. the last few days have created a level i will use to short from 559.5 Will not bite hard, just fire one shot. Then look for valid entries.
This does not mean i fire as it crosses the line it means i now have a confirmed down bias and will look for entry. Small feeler positions maybe taken anyplace as long that bias remains.
A+ Trade Set ups All From Respecting Simple Levels! We identify high-quality trade opportunities by focusing on key support and resistance levels. By respecting these fundamental price points, traders can enhance their decision-making process. Support levels act as a floor where buying interest tends to emerge, while resistance levels serve as a ceiling where selling pressure usually mounts. Recognizing and adhering to these simple levels helps traders pinpoint entry and exit points more effectively, increasing the probability of successful trades and improving overall trading performance.
AMEX:SPY
Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 3rd WK SEP 2024Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 3rd WK SEP 2024
> BULLISH 📈 HIT
Prior Week Closed Price: 561.96
This Week Target Price: 564
Strike Price: 565.97 on SEP 17, 2024
Upper Range: 587
Lower Range: 541
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17: Excess Phase Peak BreakThis short video explains why it is so important to often wait for the markets to show you what it really wants to do - not trying to force a trade when the markets are undecided.
Many traders are likely short right now - expecting a top to setup in the markets ahead of the Fed rate decision. My research suggests a top would likely form because of the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns on the charts as well.
But, the RSP rally to new ATHs over the past 3+ days gave me reason to PAUSE and really consider the potential that price may rally and break away from the Excess Phase Peak setups.
Well, today we have a new ATH in the SPY. We need to wait till the end of the day to see if price gets rejected at these new ATH levels - but this is a BREAK of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Over the past 10+ days, I've continued to share why these Excess Phase Peak patterns are one of the core constructs of price action. They happen all the time (probably 60% of all trading through any year is an Excess Phase Peak pattern).
There are five constructs to the pattern. They can be Bullish or Bearish in structure.
At any time after the initial PEAK/TROUGH is set, they can INVALIDATE. So, we have to stay keenly aware of when/how they can invalidate.
This video will show you multiple examples of Excess Phase Peak patterns and how to use them.
Get ready, we may be at the start of a moderate melt-up for the SPY targeting 585-595 or higher.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQ Plan Your Trade For 9-17 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will melt upward in early trading, finding resistance, then rolling over into a moderate downtrend.
A top pattern is very similar to a reversal pattern. Where price moves higher, finds a key resistance area, tops, and then rolls downward away from the resistance area.
In today's video, I take a quick look at RSP, the equal-weighted S&P500 ETF, where price levels have already moved to new ATHs. And this may be very important for all traders to consider.
If the equal-weighted S&P ETF is moving to new all-time highs right now, while the QQQ and SPY struggle within the Excess Phase Peak patterns, it may be just a matter of time before the SPY invalidates the Excess Phase Peak pattern and moves to new ATHs as well.
The QQQ may be a different story as that chart still shows quite a bit of upper price range before invalidating any of the Excess Phase Peak patterns.
Therefore, I suggest traders stay very cautious today and tomorrow as we see how things play out. Right now, I would suggest the topping/peak pattern has about a 60% probability of playing out successfully today. Those ATHs in the RSP are more indicative of a moderate melt upward instead of a rolling top pattern - at least right now.
Gold and Silver will pause a bit ahead of the Fed rate decision. All markets are in a "wait and see mode" ahead of the Fed. This is another reason why you should not be overly aggressive in your trading right now.
Bitcoin is attempting to FLAG again - moving into a tighter, more consolidated price range just below $60k. I still believe an explosive upward price trend is building for BTCUSD.
I believe we will see an explosive upward price trend setting up just before the elections across the SPY/QQQ and other markets as well - we have to get through the next 45 days of consolidation and uncertainty ahead of the elections.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Technical Analysis for Tomorrow (Sept 17, 2024)SPY is currently trading around $563.10 and is consolidating near a key resistance level of $564.78. Here’s a detailed analysis:
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: The $564.78 level is a critical resistance point. It aligns with previous rejections, so breaking above it with high volume could signal a potential upward move toward the next target of $567.50.
Support Levels: If SPY fails to break above resistance, the first support is at $562.56. Below that, the key support levels are:
$556.46 (around the 50-period MA on the 1-hour chart).
$552.72 (another significant support as shown on the Volume Profile).
$540.11 (a major demand zone).
2. Volume Profile:
The Volume Profile suggests that $556.46 is an area of high interest for buyers, making it a critical support level if SPY faces selling pressure. The red and blue zones on the right-hand side show high liquidity zones where price is likely to react (either with consolidation or a strong bounce).
3. Moving Averages:
The short-term moving average (green line) is trending upwards, reflecting positive short-term momentum. This aligns with the recent bullish price movement.
The longer-term moving average (purple line, likely the 200-period MA) is further below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish.
4. Price Action and Momentum:
SPY is in an uptrend, having recovered strongly from the lows around $540.11 earlier this month. The current consolidation below $564.78 indicates indecision, and tomorrow’s move will likely depend on whether SPY can break above this resistance. If it does, the next target could be the $570 psychological level, but if rejected, expect a pullback toward $556.46 or $552.72.
5. Prediction for Tomorrow:
Bullish Scenario: If SPY breaks above $564.78 with strong volume, it could trigger a rally towards $567.50 and potentially higher toward $570.
Bearish Scenario: If SPY gets rejected at this resistance, a pullback towards $556.46 or $552.72 is possible. Watch how SPY reacts at those support levels for potential buying opportunities.
$SPY September 17, 2024AMEX:SPY September 17, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY held on to 560 levels yesterday,
Now in 563 range.
SO, for the rise 559.9 to 563.11 must hold 561 today.
Tomorrow is D day.
No trade day today.
At the moment 554 - 557 is very strong support on downside.
They are 100 average supports in 15- and 60-minutes time frame
Ascending Triangle SPY 4 HRJust noticed this massive Ascending Triangle on SPY 4 HR. If this does decide to breakout, we will see SPY at new ATH within the next 6 weeks.
