SPXQQQSPYVOOSCHG Some people have been asking us today if a stock market crash is imminent. We told them: historically, the accounts that lose the most money are usually the ones with the highest trading frequency. For example, the study "Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors" found that households with the highest trading frequency had significantly lower returns. Similarly, a 2019 study on Brazilian futures contract traders showed that 97% of day traders lost money. Conversely, the most profitable accounts belong to those who buy stocks and then forget they even own them! Just our personal take, not financial advice.
SCHGSCHDBTCUSDDJINDX Since 2023, our SCHG position has grown by an impressive 100%, which we think is a solid return for a growth focused ETF. Right now, it feels like SCHG has reached its target range and may be heading into a period of profit taking and potential consolidation.
With Trump back, we see huge opportunities for BTC and value oriented ETFs like SCHD, which represent the backbone of the U.S. economy. They're sitting on strong support levels and looks like it offers a very solid ROR ratio.
For these reasons, we’ve shifted our primary focus to SCHD and BTC related assets. We don’t often make such significant changes to our portfolio unless there’s a compelling opportunity, but we think now is one of those times. Let’s see how it plays out.
SPXQQQSPYVOOSCHG Some people have been asking me today if a stock market crash is imminent. I told them: historically, the accounts that lose the most money are usually the ones with the highest trading frequency. For example, the study "Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors" found that households with the highest trading frequency had significantly lower returns. Similarly, a 2019 study on Brazilian futures contract traders showed that 97% of day traders lost money. Conversely, the most profitable accounts belong to those who buy stocks and then forget they even own them! Just my personal take, not financial advice.
SPXSPYQQQVOOSCHG The S&P 500 and M2 money supply are nearing the overbought levels we saw during the dot-com bubble. Back then, the market crashed by over 50%, with the Nasdaq plummeting 80%. While the new market has vanished, given the current situation, the S&P 500 has risen significantly relative to the money supply and might have another 20% upside. You might think I'm a hopeless optimist, but hey, just sharing my thoughts. ^^