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Cardano / US Dollar Perpetual Quanto Swap Contract

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ADAUSD.P trade ideas

Last Cycle -> This CycleNo two cycles have ever been exactly the same and it remains to be seen if that will ever happen. Bitcoin has thus far demonstrated a certain amount of cyclicity and predictable behavior on a 4-year time scale that has been widely studied and written about. Given BTC's overall influence on the asset class, we'll make the assumption in this idea that ADA can also exhibit a certain amount of cyclicity and predictable behavior within a similar time period. I'll start by defining 4, temporal 'parts'. From cycle to cycle they do NOT translate exactly and it's possible I'll look back in two years and realize I drew them wrong. Regardless of this, let's explore. ~~ Part 1 - The premature "Rally" The rhetoric of "This time is different" and "We're going to see new ATH's next month" are particularly strong. This "Rally" usually starts towards the end of the pre-halving year or sometime early in the halving year. Positive USD price movements set the stage for a short staged, preliminary mania before the inevitable lull. ~~ Part 2 - The Pre-Parabolic lull After seeing a 2x - 6x return from the cycle bottom, which is usually quite nice given years of mostly weekly red candles, a summer or late fall lull sets in. The rhetoric of "Crypto is dead" and "It's never going to go up again" emerge. The prior cycle, at least for ADA, appeared to be much shorter than this cycle's early new ATH ~6 months ago for BTC. Given bitcoin had a long cooling off period time year, it's not particularly shocking that ADA did as well. ~~ Part 3 - The first kickoff and the 35% downwick Cue the US elections and like clockwork the asset class kicks off. BTC breaks 100k for the first time, ADAUSD skyrockets from ~$0.30 to ~$1.30. IF YOU TAKE NOTHING ELSE FROM THIS POST AT LEAST CONSIDER THIS: ADAUSD, like ETHUSD, does not exactly have a great December track record during the halving year. Last Cycle, ADAUSD saw a -35% downwick from the local high to the local bottom. Ask yourself: Do you think this flushed some people out? Do you think some panic sold? Nobody, not me, not anyone, knows where the USD valuation is going. I believe it's going to go higher but all I know for sure is that where we are now...December of the halving year...is behaving, overall, quite similar to December 2020. ADAUSD skyrockets to $1.30 and then wicks down to the $0.77 range. ~~ Part 4 - The Real Parabolic Rally Cue the post-halving year which we are less than 2 weeks away from. In 2020, from the last week of December to the last week of February, ADAUSD rallies 834%. 834% in 8 weeks. And during this time, it printed 2 weekly red candles in the later half of Jan that sent the price down -34%. And then, at the start of March, it printed two more red candles that sent the price down -25%. But the rally wasn't over because the USD valuation in the Spring of 2021 was still in the low $1's. It wasn't until the second week of May that ADA hit $2 for the first time and it wasn't until late August it hit $3. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I believe the real parabolic rally hasn't start yet. I believe that if ADAUSD behaves similarly to how it did last cycle, we're going to have an exciting next 10 weeks, a cooloff in March+April, and an exciting start to summer. There will be turbulence. There will be doubt. This is crypto, this is the nature of trading. I suspect there will be weeks after a new local high is printed that we're all down 20%-40% and that's okay, it doesn't imply the end of the cycle. ~~ This isn't financial advice and this isn't investment advice, but now that we're still in the <$1.00/ADA it's probably worth determining what you want your exit strategy to be. Good luck out there.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by Varmushu
BUY OPPORTUNITYInstrument: ADA/USD Entry Price: $0.941 Stop Loss (SL): $0.831 Take Profit (TP): $1.178 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 Technical Analysis: 50 EMA Support: As price approaches the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it is expected to act as support. This suggests that ADA/USD may find support and bounce higher from this level, leading towards your TP. Strong Supply Zone at $1.206: The price is below a significant supply zone around $1.206, which could act as resistance. This means there is a higher chance of ADA reaching your TP of $1.178 before encountering further resistance. Fundamental Analysis: Positive Address Profitability: 60.9% of ADA addresses are in profit (2.68 million addresses). 34.95% of addresses are in losses (1.54 million addresses). This indicates a predominantly positive market sentiment, with the majority of addresses currently seeing gains, which could indicate bullish momentum for ADA in the near term. ADA's 70% Drop from ATH: Despite the price being down by about 70% from its all-time high, the profitability of ADA addresses remains strong. This signals that investors holding ADA may continue to support the price at current levels, further reinforcing the bullish bias in the short term.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by GODOCM
1
Possible head and shoulders. My previous chart predicted a bearish divergence and this played out. Now there is a possible head and shoulders forming. However, Cardano does appear to be showing strength and this may be invalidated soon. I think it wholly depends on BTC movements. Right now BTC just hit a new ATH and the market followed this. I think ADA is showing strength in the RSI. Key support is 1.15, I think ADA does have the strength to reach this and hold it. Only time will tell, market is neutral in my eyes right now.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by Shaun_Poland
1
Cardano - Starting The 10x Parabolic Rally!Cardano ( CRYPTO:ADAUSD ) is perfectly following the break and retest: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 With an incredible +200% pump in November, Cardano is finally coming back to life after creating the bullish double bottom break and retest just a couple of months ago. Looking at previous cycles, this seems to be just the beginning of another +3.000 rally. Levels to watch: $3.0, $10.0 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:ADAUSDLong
by basictradingtv
17