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Dollar Index ahead of US Inflation data releaseThe DXY (US Dollar Index) 4-hour chart presents a mix of technical and fundamental insights: Technical Analysis: Price Pattern: The chart suggests a breakout from a descending wedge, a potential bullish reversal pattern. However, broader bearish signals loom, as noted by a potential head-and-shoulders neckline that, if breached, could trigger intensified selling. Key Levels: Support : Immediate support lies at 105.50, followed by critical levels at 105.00, 104.60, and 104.10. Resistance: The next significant resistance is at 106.70. A sustained break above this level is needed to confirm bullish momentum. Fundamental Factors: Economic Data and Fed Meeting: Traders are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of key US CPI and PPI reports this week. Core CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.3% YoY, potentially influencing the Fed's rate guidance. The Federal Reserve meeting on December 19 is pivotal, with a 90% probability of a 25-bps rate cut to 4.25%-4.50% priced in. Market focus will also be on the dot plot guidance for 2025, which could shape expectations for future rate cuts. Market Sentiment: The current range-bound movement around 106.35 reflects cautious sentiment, with traders balancing between potential bullish technical developments and looming bearish risks from economic data and Fed expectations. Outlook: Bullish Scenario: A break and close above 106.70, supported by favorable economic data, could fuel further upside toward 107.00. Bearish Scenario: A decisive move below 105.50 or the neckline of the bearish pattern could intensify selling pressure, targeting 105.00 and beyond. Traders should closely monitor upcoming CPI and PPI reports, along with Fed guidance, as they could significantly influence the DXY's direction in the short term.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by ALRDNMRSKY
S&P500 What will happen in 2025 and 2026 based on this pattern?The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024: As you see, the index rose by around +8.50% from 5625 to 6100 in only 3.5 months. We are still expecting a local top just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, with our Target in tact at 6500. If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025). What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support. As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
DAX forming a top?GER40 - 24h expiry Sequence of 7 positive daily performances broken. We are trading at overbought extremes. Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains. Short term MACD has turned negative. A higher correction is expected. Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high. We look to Sell at 20415 (stop at 20535) Our profit targets will be 20115 and 20025 Resistance: 20350 / 20474 / 20600 Support: 20260 / 20200 / 20000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
US100 - 1H - Short Setup to $21,000 (Technical Analysis)The CAPITALCOM:US100 bounced from the upper side of it's wedge where it marked it's new ATH. On the way up we opened two gaps (red in the chart) which are still left to get closed. We also see a RSI divergence which implies we've seen the top for now and are heading lower (at least for the time being). Current targets would be the support at $21,184, then the trendline of the current wedge at around $21,000 and a bit lower the bigger support zone at around $20,600. If we break above $21,600 this short setup is denied. Target Zones $21,184 (Gap Close) $21,000 (Trendline) $20,600 (Bigger Support Zone)
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by LGNDRY-Capital
1
US30: Key Levels and Bearish Outlook Below 44410Technical Analysis The price has dropped approximately 320 pip, as mentioned in the previous analysis, and has now stabilized below 44410. This supports a bearish outlook, with the next target being 44130. A break below 44130 with a 4-hour or 1-hour candle close will confirm further downside to 43900. To signal a bullish correction, the price needs to break above 44410 by closing a 4-hour candle above this level, potentially targeting 44590. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 44410 Resistance Levels: 44590, 44750, 44920 Support Levels: 44270, 43900, 43760 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 44410, with targets at 44130 and 43900. Bullish correction above 44410, targeting 44590. PREVIOUS IDEA:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
HSI Index Falls Amid Disappointing Chinese Economic DataHSI Index Falls Amid Disappointing Chinese Economic Data On Tuesday, Hong Kong's HSI index (traded as Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) declined, erasing gains from the previous session due to worsening market sentiment following the release of disappointing Chinese economic data for November. As reported by the media: → China's export growth slowed to 6.7% year-on-year, falling short of the forecasted 8.5%, according to a Reuters survey. This marks a significant deceleration compared to the 12.7% growth recorded in October. → Additionally, Chinese imports contracted, decreasing by 3.9% year-on-year in November, further deteriorating from the 2.3% decline seen in the previous month. These figures have heightened concerns about the state of China’s economy, with consumer demand remaining weak amid the potential for tariff increases under the Trump administration. Technical analysis of the Hong Kong HSI Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) reveals that price action throughout 2024 has established an ascending channel (illustrated in blue). Notably: → The median line of the channel has previously acted as a "magnet" for price (highlighted with a blue oval), typically indicating equilibrium between supply and demand. → However, as marked with an arrow, it has recently acted as resistance, turning the price downward this week. This sharp shift in sentiment suggests that the HSI index value (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) could retreat to the previous consolidation zone between the 19,000–19,700 levels. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:HSI
by FXOpen
1
Russell 2000 H4 | Bullish bounce off overlap support?Russell 2000 (US2000) is trading close to an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 2,389.15 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 2,350.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 2,434.59 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:US2000Long
by FXCM
US 100 Trade LogUS100 Long Setup (1H) Trade Logic: - Entry: Long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located in the discount zone relative to this timeframe. Confluence Factors: - Bullish Momentum: The market is strongly bullish, with price action consistently breaking resistance and forming higher highs. - Relative Aggression: While the FVG is in a discount zone on the 1H timeframe, higher timeframes do not confirm the same, making this a relatively aggressive trade. - Supportive Context: Recent pullback aligns with the FVG, offering a potential continuation opportunity as buyers step in. - Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss of 50 points, ensuring disciplined risk management. - Target: TP1 at the next intraday resistance; TP2 near psychological levels like 15,500. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Strong risk-on sentiment in equities as major indices rally, supported by favorable economic data and dovish central bank tone. - Tech Strength: Nasdaq constituents leading the charge with inflows into growth and tech sectors, further reinforcing bullish momentum. - Volatility: VIX remains low, indicating stable conditions conducive to continuation of bullish trends. Additional Consideration: While this setup is aggressive, the bullish momentum makes it a calculated risk worth attempting. Keep stops tight and monitor if price fails to hold the FVG. Reassess if higher timeframe resistance levels come into play, suggesting a larger pullback.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) following a clear bearish shift in market structure. - Confluence Factors: - Break of Structure (BOS): Price confirms a bearish break, with a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) reinforcing downside bias. - FVG Rejection: Anticipating rejection within the 1H FVG as price retests this imbalance area, providing an optimal entry point. - Kijun Resistance: Kijun line on the 1H timeframe aligns as a dynamic resistance level, further supporting bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss above the FVG zone. - Target: TP1 near liquidity at 20,306 ; TP2 at deeper liquidity grab around 20,260 . Confluence Factors: - Market Context: Indices showing signs of pullback after extended bullish momentum, with GER40 leading a potential retracement. - Volume Signals: Declining buy-side volume during recent highs, indicating exhaustion and paving the way for downside. - Liquidity Levels: Price action aligns with tapping liquidity from equal highs before driving into lower demand zones. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the 1H FVG. - Maintain tight risk management with a stop-loss just above the FVG zone. - Reassess trade if price closes above the Kijun or invalidates the bearish structure. Extra Note: Monitor macroeconomic news or EUR-related sentiment for potential catalysts that could impact volatility in GER40. Let me know if you'd like any additional details or adjustments!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Pre-Market Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the pre-market bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting the defined downside liquidity zones. - Confluence Factors: - Pre-Market Gap: Price retraced into the FVG formed during bearish pre-market movement, offering a low-risk, high-reward entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): A confirmed bearish structure break reinforces downside momentum. - Kijun Resistance: 1H and 4H Kijun levels align with the FVG, acting as strong dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: Recent liquidity sweep near the highs sets the stage for further bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG to maintain a tight risk. - 1:3.83 RRR as per the defined target zones on the chart. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,267 , aligning with local liquidity. - TP2 at 20,240 , deeper liquidity grab zone for full target execution. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Pre-market signals and reduced buyer strength suggest increased selling pressure ahead of European market open. - Economic Indicators: Risk-off behavior in broader markets supports bearish bias. - Volume Profile: Weak buyer volume within the FVG zone adds confluence for downside continuation. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the FVG zone with a stop-loss just above it. - Strictly adhere to the 1:3.83 RRR, with partial profit-taking at TP1 and the remainder at TP2. - Monitor the European open for any shifts in momentum that could invalidate the setup. Extra Note: Stay updated on economic news or key macro triggers that could influence GER40's short-term price action. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
S&P 500: Technical Insights and Trend ForecastS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price has dropped from its previous significant high and has already broken the key level at 6058. It is currently attempting to reclaim this level. As long as trades below 6058 will touch 6022. Bullish Scenario, A 4-hour candle close above 6058 will signal a potential reversal, targeting higher resistance levels. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: The trend remains downward while the price is below 6058. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
My exectations for US 30Hi guys, hope you are doing good)) ** Time frames of the analysis are 4H & daily.. on the chart currently is the 1d frame ** The index big overall view is bullish and it does HH and HL which I marked them by numbers but we are on the correction bearish temporary wave to try to create another HL to start again to go to another HH and so on.... ** My TP1 and TP2 are marked on the chart by horizontal lines with price tags too ** The big yellow rectangle represents the consolidation zone which I avoided to trade at except the price breaks through up or down and once it broke down through, I made that idea as it became clearer now ** The index should settle on the purple uptrend line to take the power back or lose it and fall down more but anyway it will go there, but the market whalers know how we think well so they use the cards in their hands like a retrace to the upside from the current level to the most important price currently 44735 or higher but then it will go down to visit the daily uptrend line ** Plz consider too that the Fib 23.6% was not settled on by index yet so it did not meet the same point of the trend line by chance! it is the work of the market whalers and needs certain people to read their minds and go along with them otherwise no losers will be at markets.. it is not about chart alone, it is more about understanding the whalers! how they think and what they want.. Whalers are liquidity providers, banks, ETFs and funding establishments along with individual so rich people like me hehehe (joking) who not by chance too think all in same way that is why they become more rich and the poor stays poor or poorer because it is about the mind set, not only a chart! or a circumstances! true! ** Also the daily down should be filled but i do not depend on the daily gap to be filled as there are three daily gaps already further down which index did not fill yet! ** TP1 is the high and TP2 is the top of the body candles of 11th and 12th Nov. ** In case the purple uptrend line will be broken by a closed minimum daily candle, so I will make another idea then. ** Try to open the chart and make it bigger to see the view better or zoom or according to what you like NOTE ****** Tp1 means to close the trade and then see if there is consolidation then breakthrough in the trade direction or to see that it retraced to the opposite direction of the trade then came back then (WAIT) till it settle down on by body or wick then to go in the trade direction only then you could re-enter to TP2 My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
FX:US30Short
by moustafa_marei