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Forecasting the direction of gold for the rest of this yearAt the beginning of the trading session on December 16 (US time), world gold prices increased. The market expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on December 17-18 (US time). Investors took advantage of buying gold to get ahead of the uptrend after the Fed's decision. After a series of unusual developments in gold in recent times, experts are still cautious with the precious metal in the short term. Some investors are tending to sell to take profits in the last weeks of the year. Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, said that the direction of gold depends on the Fed's decision. Gold is at risk of falling to the $2,600/ounce mark if the Fed signals a smaller reduction or stops cutting interest rates next year. Forecasts that the US economy will likely be more stable and stronger next year. This means the Fed has little reason to lower interest rates, and gold prices may not receive as much support as this year.
TVC:GOLD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold price forecast December 17, 2024World gold prices increased slightly as the USD dropped. Recorded at 9:45 am on December 17, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 106,470 points (down 0.08%). The gold market is cautious as investors prepare to receive the decision of the US Federal Reserve (FED), which is expected to reduce interest rates with a "hawkish" message after the monetary policy meeting. last of the year. Although gold prices maintained a sideways trend ahead of Wednesday's decision, one analyst said the message from the Fed could lead to a larger correction in the precious metals market. This medium-term upward trend is mainly driven by new economic policies, including deeper corporate tax cuts and increased tariffs on imports to the US. These policies could cause inflation to increase in 2025 and beyond. Wong also highlighted that real yields on the 10-year note have rebounded sharply after testing the 1.9% support level last week. If it increases to 2.29%, the opportunity cost of holding gold will be higher, making gold less attractive to investors.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Mastering RSI: The Complete and CORRECT Way to Trade ItThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most popular and widely used indicators in trading. Despite its prevalence, many traders misuse it or are unaware of its full potential. RSI isn't just about identifying overbought and oversold conditions; when applied correctly, it becomes a robust tool for trend confirmation, reversals, momentum acceleration, and much more. This guide explores how to unlock the full power of RSI and avoid common pitfalls. What Is RSI? Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes over a specified period. It oscillates between 0 and 100, with the following traditional zones: Above 70: Indicates overbought conditions, where the price may reverse or consolidate. Below 30: Indicates oversold conditions, where the price may rebound or reverse upward. However, it’s important to note that RSI above 70 or below 30 can sometimes indicate trend acceleration rather than an immediate reversal—especially in strong trending markets, discussed in #6 The real reversal signal comes after RSI crosses back below 70 (for overbought) or back above 30 (for oversold). Understanding this distinction is critical to using RSI effectively. 1. Overbought and Oversold Conditions The classic use of RSI involves identifying overbought and oversold levels: Overbought: RSI rises above 70 and then drops back below it, signaling potential selling pressure. Oversold: RSI falls below 30 and then moves back above it, indicating potential buying interest. These signals are more effective when combined with tools like support/resistance levels or trendlines. 2. Centerline Crossover The 50-level on RSI is a reliable trend indicator: Above 50: Bullish momentum dominates. Below 50: Bearish momentum dominates. Use these crossovers to confirm trends: Enter long trades when RSI is above 50. Enter short trades when RSI is below 50. 3. Divergences Divergences between RSI and price can signal potential trend reversals: Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows, but RSI forms higher lows. Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs, but RSI forms lower highs. These divergences highlight weakening momentum and often precede reversals. 4. RSI Patterns RSI can form recognizable chart patterns, such as triangles, head-and-shoulders, or double tops/bottoms. These patterns often precede price moves: Triangles: A breakout on RSI often signals a strong price move. Double Tops : A topping pattern on RSI warns of potential price declines. 5. Failure Swings Failure swings occur when RSI enters an extreme zone (above 70 or below 30) but fails to sustain momentum and reverses. This is a strong reversal signal and can precede significant price moves: Bullish Failure Swing: RSI dips below 30. It rises but dips again, staying above 30. RSI breaks its previous high, signaling a bullish reversal. Bearish Failure Swing: RSI rises above 70. It falls but rises again, staying below 70. RSI breaks its previous low, signaling a bearish reversal. How to trade it: For a bullish failure swing, enter long when RSI confirms the higher low and breaks above the previous swing high. For a bearish failure swing, enter short when RSI confirms the lower high and breaks below the previous swing low. 6. Momentum Acceleration Strategy While RSI is traditionally used for spotting overbought and oversold conditions, it can also identify momentum acceleration during strong trends: Above 70: In strong uptrends, when RSI rises above 70 and stays there, it signals upward acceleration, indicating buyers are in control. Below 30: In strong downtrends, when RSI dips below 30 and stays there, it signals downward acceleration, with sellers driving the market lower. How to trade it: In uptrends, treat RSI staying above 70 as a sign of strength and look for pullbacks to enter long positions. In downtrends, use brief rebounds as opportunities to short while RSI remains below 30. 7. Multi-Timeframe Strategy Analyzing RSI across multiple timeframes enhances accuracy: Use the higher timeframe (e.g., daily) to identify the overall trend. Use the lower timeframe (e.g., 1-hour) to time trade entries. Example: If RSI on the daily chart is above 50 (bullish trend), look for hourly RSI dips below 30 to enter long trades. If RSI on the daily chart is below 50 (bearish trend), wait for hourly RSI to reach overbought levels above 70 to short. Tips for Advanced RSI Use: Adjust RSI Settings: Shorter periods (e.g., 7) make RSI more sensitive, while longer periods (e.g., 21) smooth out signals for longer-term trends. Combine RSI with Other Tools: Use RSI alongside moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, or Candlesticks. Risk Management: Always pair RSI signals with a stop-loss strategy to manage risk effectively. PRO TIP: As I like to say "Trade the price, not the indicator." Use RSI as a confirmation tool, not the main signal. For example, a price reversal from resistance or a bullish engulfing candle becomes far more reliable when backed by RSI signals. Conclusion RSI is far more versatile than many traders realize. While it’s traditionally used for identifying overbought and oversold levels, strategies like momentum acceleration and failure swings add depth to its utility. By combining RSI with centerline crossovers, divergences, multi-timeframe analysis, and chart patterns, traders can pinpoint entries, reversals, and momentum shifts with more precision and trade more confidently. Key Takeaways: - RSI staying above 70 or below 30 in trends signals momentum acceleration. - Failure swings offer reliable reversal signals when RSI breaks key levels. - Combining RSI strategies with other tools and proper risk management leads to more confidence
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
21
ASX 200: Is the Santa Rally Finally on the Runway?Did we just see the start of the ‘Santa Rally’ on Australia’s ASX 200? If the daily candle on SPI futures finishes around these levels, the price signal will likely embolden those who have been pining for its arrival. As things stand, we’re looking at a key reversal with the body and range greater than the candle of 24 hours earlier, pointing to the potential for an extended run higher. RSI (14) has broken its downtrend – hinting at a shift in price momentum – although MACD is yet to confirm the signal. While the timing of the futures contract roll emphasises the need for risk management, with just a handful of trading days left until Christmas, this has often been a strong seasonal period Australian stocks. If the price closes above 8310, one setup to consider would be to initiate longs above the level with a stop beneath for protection, targeting the downtrend established from the record highs. A break of that level may open the door for a larger thrust, possibly towards 8420 or 8480. The price needs to overcome 8353 for the setup to succeed, meaning traders should be on alert for signs of hesitancy from this known reversal level. If the price were to close beneath 8310, the bullish setup would be invalidated. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Long
by FOREXcom
XAU - monday sideway! Scalping follows the downtrendSCALPING XAU / USD ⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Last week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease its rate cuts at a slower pace next year. On Friday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to a three-week high, reflecting market bets on a less dovish Fed stance, which could limit gains for the non-yielding gold. Looking ahead, Monday's release of global flash PMI data may shape broader market sentiment and potentially impact demand for the safe-haven precious metal. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price is slow on the first trading day of the new week, around the 2650 area. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2662 - $2664 SL $2667 scalping TP1: $2657 TP2: $2650 TP3: $2640 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
5
Welcome to my latest analysis and forecast for XAU/USD!Gold prices are entering a phase of bearish consolidation. The understanding that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of its interest rate cuts due to stalled progress in reducing inflation to its 2% target acts as a headwind for the yellow metal. However, a combination of factors continues to provide some support. A slight decline in U.S. Treasury yields keeps dollar bulls on the defensive. Additionally, persistent geopolitical risks and concerns regarding the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump helps limit the downside for the precious metal. Traders are also likely to avoid taking new directional positions ahead of the critical Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision on Wednesday. This decision will be closely watched for signals on the future path of rate cuts. which could provide new impetus for the XAU/USD pair. Technical Analysis In this analysis we will take a closer look at the current state of XAU/USD and provide a forecast for its future movements. First, let's start with a brief explanation of XAU/USD. XAU refers to the chemical symbol for gold, while USD is the abbreviation for the US dollar. This currency pair represents the price of gold in US dollars. As the US dollar is the world's foremost reserve currency and gold is seen as a safe-haven asset, XAU/USD is a highly watched and traded currency pair. Now, let's dive into the analysis of XAU/USD. In recent months, we have seen a steady uptrend in the price of gold against the US dollar. This can be attributed to various factors, such as the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and the global economic slowdown. All of these events have led to investors seeking refuge in the safe-haven asset of gold, thus driving up its price. Additionally, the recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have weakened the US dollar, making gold more attractive for international investors. The demand for gold has also increased due to the central banks of various countries adding gold to their reserves. These factors have all contributed to the bullish trend in XAU/USD. In terms of technical analysis, XAU/USD is currently trading above its long-term moving average , indicating a strong uptrend. However, it is important to note that the price has reached on critical resistance level of $2,718 per ounce. If it breaks through this level, we can expect to see further gains in XAU.USD. On the other hand, if the price fails to break this resistance, we may see a pullback to the support level of $2,560. Now let's move on to our forecast for XAU/USD. Based on the current market conditions, we believe that XAU/USD will continue its uptrend in the short term, with a potential target at $2,791 per ounce. However, we cannot ignore the fact that gold is a highly volatile asset, and any unexpected events or changes in market sentiment can quickly reverse this trend. In the long term, we maintain a bullish stance on XAU/USD due to the ongoing uncertainty in the global economy and the potential for further interest rate cuts by central banks. It is also worth mentioning that the gold market tends to perform well during times of geopolitical tensions and economic downturns, which are all possibilities in the current global landscape. In conclusion, XAU/USD has been on a steady uptrend, and our analysis and forecast suggest that our analysis and forecast suggest that this trend will continue in the short and long term. As always, it is important to keep an eye on the market and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. Stay updated with the latest news and events that may affect XAU/USD to make informed trading decisions. Happy Trading!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS