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How Will This Interest Rate Cut Affect Markets? Hey there, The dollar remained steady during the Asian session this morning. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bpt. Traders however, are preparing for a potential hawkish outlook from the central bank considering recent data which showed U.S inflation remained sticky and the labor market strong. The central bank is expected to signal slower pace of easing in 2025 with several analyst predicting a hold in Jan. With retail sales coming out stronger than expected, the Fed now has enough headroom to cut rates at a slower pace. Because gold does not generate income like interest-bearing assets such as bonds or savings accounts, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases when interest rates are higher, making it less attractive to investors. And with the dollar remaining strong near three-week highs on the dollar index. Higher interest rates typically strengthen the dollar, further pressuring gold because it is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for foreign buyers. Additionally, higher interest rates often signal a stronger economy, which can reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
FX:XAUUSD
by DeanMuller
GOLD is neutral on the most important event day of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery decreased under pressure from the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates increased sharply. Strong US retail sales data caused gold prices to plummet to a week low of 2,633 USD/ounce yesterday trading day. Today (Wednesday), markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year. About economic data US retail sales rose more than expected in November, fueling rising inflation data in recent months and suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest growth rate since September and above the 0.6% gain. expected. Retail sales data for the first two months of the year was revised upward and October data was revised from a monthly increase of 0.4% to 0.5%. The most important event this trading week On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Investors will need to pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further assess future policy trends. The Fed's updated economic forecasts and Dotplot charts are also the focus of market attention as they could reshape expectations about the trajectory of interest rates in 2025 and 2026. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. What Powell "breathes" out will create big fluctuations in the market. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Additionally, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025. So the question is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market expects. Because of Trump's victory, the market will have to reassess the Fed's interest rate expectations, and may need to be more cautious about further interest rate cuts at this time. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold attempted to recover after testing the 0.618% Fibonacci level, a position that readers noticed in the previous issue. Temporarily, the trend of gold prices is noticed by the price channel, however the position is quite neutral with price activity around EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index also sticking around 50. Perhaps, the technical chart needs a sudden impact to create a trend, and considering the current position, gold could increase in price if it breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level then the target level is about 2,676USD In the short term, more than $2,693. On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement support level, it could open a new bearish cycle with price activity returning to the price channel and the target then being around 2,591USD in the medium term. During the day, the technical trend is neutral and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,603 ​​– 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2684 →Take Profit 1 2673 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2617 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Technical Analysis for Gold Spot/USD (1-Hour Chart)Current Market Overview Current Price: $2,646.34 Market Trend: Bearish with a range-bound consolidation phase after a strong decline. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: $2,646.34 (current zone), $2,692.50, and $2,725.84 Support: $2,632.71, $2,613.26, and $2,602.79 Bullish Scenario Technical Factors Price Action: Price is stabilizing above $2,632.71, a key support level, with a small bounce attempting to hold around the current range near $2,646. Multiple rejection wicks below $2,640 signal buyers defending this region. Volume Profile: The green delta volume spike near $2,632.71 (41.54K volume) suggests buyers stepped in at this support. Indicators: The pink EMA cloud still indicates bearish pressure, but it is flattening, suggesting the bearish momentum is losing steam. A close above the bearish cloud and price sustaining above $2,646 could signal a reversal. Support Zone: Strong buying demand is seen between $2,632.71 and $2,613.26. Probable Entry Points Entry: Early Entry: Near $2,640 to $2,646 once price consolidates and shows bullish candle formations (hammer, engulfing). Confirmed Entry: Break and close above $2,652 with strong volume. Take-Profit Targets Short-term TP1: $2,660 (recent minor resistance). TP2: $2,692.50 (15% delta volume zone). Extended TP3: $2,725.84 (higher resistance and key supply zone). Stop-Loss Place SL below $2,632 to protect against further downside. Bearish Scenario Technical Factors Price Action: Price remains under pressure below the pink EMA cloud and has struggled to close above it since December 16th. Lower highs continue to form, confirming bearish structure. Volume Analysis: Strong selling pressure is evident near $2,646.34, shown by red bearish delta volumes. Sell zones around $2,646 to $2,660 are seeing repeated rejections. Resistance Zone: $2,646 to $2,652 acts as immediate resistance, and failure to break above this level could trigger further selling. Bearish Continuation Signal: A close below $2,632.71 will confirm bearish continuation to lower support zones. Probable Entry Points Entry: Aggressive Entry: Near $2,646 (sell at rejection or bearish engulfing candles). Confirmed Entry: Breakdown and close below $2,632.71. Take-Profit Targets Short-term TP1: $2,632.71 (immediate support). TP2: $2,613.26 (key support zone). Extended TP3: $2,602.79 (final strong support and green demand zone). Stop-Loss Place SL above $2,652 or $2,660 to protect against a bullish reversal. Summary: Trading Plan Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Take-Profit Targets Bullish $2,640 - $2,646 Below $2,632 TP1: $2,660, TP2: $2,692, TP3: $2,725 Bearish $2,646 - $2,652 Above $2,660 TP1: $2,632, TP2: $2,613, TP3: $2,602 Conclusion Bullish Bias: If price closes above $2,652 with strong volume, expect a move toward $2,692 and higher. Bearish Bias: A rejection at $2,646 - $2,652 or a breakdown below $2,632.71 will likely push prices toward $2,613.26 - $2,602.79. Recommendation: Watch price behavior at $2,646 and $2,632.71 for confirmation. Use proper risk management and wait for clear breakouts or rejections.
FX:XAUUSD
by ProspireWealth
Mean Reversion CME GAP at FOMC -> Pump until BOJ Rate DecissionHello guys! I will share a mean reversion idea on Bitcoin with you today. I expect Bitcoin to close the CME Gap, that got made at the beginning of the week. Currently we are very close to starting the recovery process. The CME Gap closing aligns very good with a mean reversion to the 50EMA on the 4hr timeframe. This could be an indication for a trend continuation of Bitcoin to the upside until friday when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will decide their rate policy. We will look into the chart from a new perspective on friday so take this trade idea as a short term one. I mentioned in the chart that we have an unrecovered pink vector candle at the top. This could be an good area to aim for in the reversal process to take profit. With good execution this could be an good trade from 102k to 108k. Me personal, I don't think we will see a rate cut and if so only a small one. So nothing that will shake the markets to hard. I hope. Trade SAFE!
CME:BTC1!Long
by reports20netrust
Weekly CLS range, HTF KL : Breaker, Model 1, TP 50% of the rangeWeekly CLS range, HTF KL : Breaker, Model 1, TP 50% of the range. That simple it is nothing else needs to be explained. you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Dave-Hunter
13
FED INTEREST RATE CUT / GOLD UPDATETRADINGVIEW: Plan XAU / USD : 18 December , 2024 ⭐️Personal comments "Pips & Profit": The market will pick up and recover when the FED lowers interest rates later today. But it won't have too much of an impact because most investors won't be too surprised. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2664 - $2662 SL $2667 scalping TP1: $2658 TP2: $2652 TP3: $2645 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2694 - $2696 SL $2702 TP1: $2685 TP2: $2670 TP3: $2660 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2607 - $2605 SL $2600 TP1: $2618 TP2: $2630 TP3: $2645 Let's support "Pips & Profit" by LIKE AND COMMENT TRADINGVIEW. Thank you very much everyone. 🌸🌸🌸
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by PIPS_n_PROFIT
FED INTEREST RATE CUT / GOLD UPDATETRADINGVIEW: Plan XAU / USD : 18 December , 2024 ⭐️Personal comments "Pips & Profit": The market will pick up and recover when the FED lowers interest rates later today. But it won't have too much of an impact because most investors won't be too surprised. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2664 - $2662 SL $2667 scalping TP1: $2658 TP2: $2652 TP3: $2645 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2694 - $2696 SL $2702 TP1: $2685 TP2: $2670 TP3: $2660 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2607 - $2605 SL $2600 TP1: $2618 TP2: $2630 TP3: $2645 Let's support "Pips & Profit" by LIKE AND COMMENT TRADINGVIEW. Thank you very much everyone. 🌸🌸🌸
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by PIPS_n_PROFIT
1
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/18/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 22309.25 - PR Low: 22206.00 - NZ Spread: 230.75 Key scheduled economic events: 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories 14:00 | FOMC Economic Projections - FOMC Statement - Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:30 | FOMC Press Conference AMP raised margins for expected FOMC volatility spikes - Retraced 50% of Monday's ATH breakout range - +100 point value decline at session open - Auctioning long above previous session close Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 12/18) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 287.63 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 196K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
Profitable SMC Smart MoneyConcept Strategy Explained I will teach you how to trade liquidity grab, a trap, inducement, order block and imbalance. I will share with you my Smart Money Concept strategy for trading forex & gold. We will study a real SMC trading setup that I took on a live stream with my students. Trend Analysis With Structure Mapping The first step in our trading strategy will be the analysis of a market trend on a daily time frame with structure mapping. Analyzing GBPNZD on a daily time frame, we can see that the conditions for a bullish trend are met. Liquidity Zones Analysis The second step will be to find liquidity - supply and demand zones on a daily time frame. According to our rules, here are 3 liquidity zones that I spotted on GBPNZD. We see 2 demand zones and 1 supply zone. Test of Liquidity Zone The third step will be to wait for a test of a liquidity zone. And on that step, we should remember an important rule: We will wait only for a test of a liquidity zone that ALIGN with the market trend. It means that we will wait for a test of a demand zone in a bullish trend. We will wait for a test of a supply zone in a bearish trend. The only demand zones that meets these criteria on GBPNZD is Demand Zone 1. It aligns with a bullish trend. We don't consider Demand Zone 2, because a bearish violation of a Demand Zone 1 will be a Change of Character and a violation of a bearish trend. And here is how a test of a liquidity zone should look like. The price should simply reach that. Liquidity Grab & Imbalance After we identified a test of a significant liquidity zone that aligns with a market trend, we will start analyzing lower time frames. We will look for a liquidity grab, order block and imbalance on 4H and 1H time frames. Here is a liquidity grab that is confirmed by a bullish imbalance. We see a false violation of a liquidity zone, followed by a high momentum bullish candle. It will be our strong bullish signal. Order Block Zone In order to identify the entry point, the next step will be to identify the order block zone. According to our rules, here is the order block zone on a 4H time frame. Entry Level Our entry level will be the level of the upper boundary of the order block zone. Here is such a level on GBPNZD. A buy limit order should be set on that level. Please, note that in that particular case we don't need a 1H time frame analysis, because we have a confirmation signal on a 4H time frame. We will analyse an hourly time frame only when THERE IS NO SIGNAL on a 4H time frame. Stop Loss & Take Profit Safe stop loss should be below the lowest low of a bearish movement. To safely calculate a stop loss in pips for the trade, simply take 0.5 ATR - Average True Range. For Average True Range indicator , take the default settings - 14 length. Here is a safe stop loss level on GBPNZD. ATR is 55 pips. Our stop loss for the trade is 28 pips. Take profit for the trade will be based on the closest 4H liquidity - supply zone. That is the closest supply zone that I spotted on GBPNZD on a 4H time frame. Your target level should be a couple of pips below a supply zone. Look how perfectly the market reached the target! As you can see, that trading strategy is quite complex and combines different important elements. But what I like about this SMC trading strategy is that it truly makes sense. The intentions of Smart Money are crystal clear here and the trade execution rules are straight forward. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
The economy is looking to the FedThe Fed has started its two-day policy meeting and is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points. However, the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot, which provide guidance for interest rates in 2025. While US Treasury yields and real yields both edged lower, the US dollar remained steady. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.379%, while the DXY index rose 0.07% to 107.01. On the technical front, gold prices maintain their long-term uptrend but are under pressure in the short term. The key support level now is $2,600/ounce, which corresponds to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). A break of this level could send prices lower to $2,531 – the August 20 high. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,650, the next target will be $2,670 (50-day SMA), and then $2,700. In addition to the Fed’s decision, investors are awaiting the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gauge the future direction of policy. Signs that the incoming Trump administration may push for expansionary fiscal policy have raised expectations of a change in the Fed’s stance in the near term.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price todayGold prices continued to weaken today due to stronger-than-expected important US economic news. The US retail sales report for November showed an increase of 0.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast increase of 0.5%. This information made some gold investors worry that the FED may postpone the 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut after the end of the monetary policy meeting in the early morning of December 19. Since then, many people have temporarily stopped trading gold. On the other hand, gold is also likely to have limited purchasing power due to some forecasts of rising inflation in the US, a slowing labor market..., prompting the FED to stop cutting interest rates early in 2025. At that time, the USD could increase in value very strongly, negatively affecting the world gold price trend. The question now is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market has been expecting. Investors are now expecting the Fed to be more cautious in easing monetary policy, given the impact of Donald Trump’s agenda on inflation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster