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How to PREDICT MARKETS! Tops and BottomsIn this video, I go over the following in great detail: Predicting Markets with Williams %R, RSI, and MACD Predicting market movements can be challenging, but combining the Williams %R, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicators can provide powerful insights for traders. Williams %R measures the current closing price relative to the high-low range over a specific period, helping identify overbought or oversold conditions. RSI gauges the speed and change of price movements, also indicating overbought or oversold levels. MACD analyzes the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price, identifying potential buy or sell signals. By using these three indicators together, traders can: Confirm Trends: When all three indicators align, it strengthens the signal for a potential trend continuation or reversal. Identify Entry and Exit Points: Overbought or oversold signals from these indicators can help pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Reduce False Signals: Combining multiple indicators can help filter out false signals, increasing the reliability of predictions.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by RonnieV29
4
Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Tumble with -15% crash ??On the above monthly chart price action has seen a nice 25% rise since November 2023. A number or reasons now exist to be bearish. Incidentally, with all the recently published ideas on Tradingview, Without Worries appears to be the only one who is bearish. The reasons? 1) Broken market structure confirmation. 2) Active price action resistance. 3) Rising wedge. A breakdown confirmation will see price action correct 17%. 4) $76 is the next support level, which is incidentally the measured move forecast by the bearish wedge identified in (3). Is it possible price action continues to rise as most of Tradingview is calling for? Sure Is it probable? No. Ww
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by without_worries
29
TLT Flipping ResistanceIn my last post I discussed TLT as a great trade based on a technical basis and also confluent the macro-economic picture. With Trump as the new elect president, it is interesting that the narrative of a flare-up in inflation has not skyed yields and TLT recovers from a nice drop to 90$. Here I am showing the last 2 times where TLT bottomed and then rallied. Each period of time took about 60 days give or take a few to thrust up through resistance. I believe we are experiencing a similar bottoming process now. There is a good chance that we receive some more opportunities to accumulate shares and leaps near 90$ again. Flipping Resistance: As you can see, I have some trendlines drawn that seem to be boxing price in and out of certain areas. I believe we will see a flipping of this diagonal down resistance line and TLT move to the upside to test some horizontal resistance in the 100-105$ area. Quotes from the great theologian Martin Luther: "Every man must do two things alone; he must do his own believing and his own dying." "All who call on God in true faith, earnestly from the heart, will certainly be heard, and will receive what they have asked and desired" "Is it not a thing most abominable, that God who feeds so many mouths, should be held in such low esteem by me, that I will not trust him to feed me? Yea, that a guilder, thirty-eight cents, should be valued more highly than God, who pours out his treasures everywhere in rich profusion. For the world is full of God and his works. He is everywhere present with his gifts, and yet we will not trust in him, nor accept his visitation." Hebrews 11:1 Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by rhall6451
1
Opening (IRA): QQQ Nov 15th 420 Covered Call... for a 415.50 debit. Comments: After taking off my Nov 415 covered call in profit (See Post Below), re-upping here, but at a slightly higher strike (there are only five-wides available). The 420 is at the -87 delta, so this is less aggressive than I usually do (-75 delta call). However, I've already booked profit in the November cycle, so am fine with getting what is kind of a weak sauce ROC here with plenty of "room to be wrong," particularly with the elections coming up. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 415.50/share Max Profit: 4.50 ($450) ROC at Max: 1.08% 50% Max: 2.25 ($225) ROC at 50% Max: .54% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on side test/IV expansion.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IWM Nov 15th 194 Covered Call... for a 192.28 debit. Comments: Re-upping with a monied covered call in November with a strike that is slightly higher than what I previously had on at the 193. (See Post Below). Just looking to get a little more out of the November cycle before moving onto December without taking on a ton of additional risk ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 192.28 Max Profit: 1.72 ROC at Max: .89% 50% Max: .81 ROC at 50% Max: .45%
AMEX:IWMLong
by NaughtyPines
SUPER STOCKS 2023 notes & issues for POSiTiONiNG there are stocks driven by MARKET .. meaning float is out in the public that normally has a DRUNK price action with gaps and erratic volume there are issues with an assigned Specialist that can TRADE or CROSS huge volume without moving the price or go beyond a range RANGE highlighted ones have been decided by both the MARKET and the MARKET MAKER best of both worlds where artificial price meets the wisdom of PUBLiC Vanguard holds most or is the CUSTODY of most issues Citadel & the gang of 3 manages the FLOAT FUNDS are public PUBLIC is barometer for entry or exit of Sovereign and Trust Fund babies on a 3 5 7 10 year cycle determined by the FED's cost of printing borrowinng and lending note: Market Cap is dated June 22, 2022 ... Bottom are of MARKETS
AMEX:SPY
by senyor
11
Why I think TLT is still a buyThe Fed fund rate has dropped 0.5%. Why hasn't bonds went up? -The fear is inflation will rise again and thus requiring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat inflation. Have we seen this before? -News from 9/18/2007 www.nbcnews.com The Federal Reserve Tuesday surprised financial markets with an aggressive half-point cut in a key lending rate, lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers in response to a housing downturn that threatens to spread to the broader economy. Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today’s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time. Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year. However, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. -This is not to say that there isn't a possibility that inflation will rise, but it is notable that the fear was similar. The Fed has stated that they intend to lower interest rates to between 3-3.5%. We are currently at 5%. " FOMC policymakers' own estimates of where short-term rates will be in December 2025 is, on average, a little more than 3%, with a median forecast of 3.4%. That forecast was updated at the FOMC's last meeting on September 18." -Assuming the Fed is telling the truth and plans to lower rates to 3-3.5%. Bonds should reflect that. Sooner or later.. -Showing how we can use 1-US10Y as a base to understand TLT on a longer time basis as TLT only goes back to 2002. Even if TLT is longer term bonds vs 10y yields -Yields trend with fed fund rates, but it can front run or lag as it is still based on the market's opinion on what the future holds. -From a technical perspective. Chart patterns of yields closely resemble 1982. -2024 TLT vs 1982 1-US10Y -Bonds and stocks are not 100% correlated, but in the event of a stock crash - the Fed will lower interest rates to help the economy and thus increasing bonds. Nasdaq looks familiar technically as sudden sharp downward move and then met with an uptrend into liquidity but met with exhaustion candles. No one knows if/when a crash will come, but the takeaway is that there are many indicators/fundamentals/chart patterns/whatever have you that are lining up at the same time.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by stuco
4
$ARKK caught a #Whale in $55C 1/17/2024 (Profit Target @ $69)5,000 Open Interest on this contract until this morning when we found a whale/institution buying up probably 10k 55C contracts for Jan 17... This is a HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD PLAY given the holdings in AMEX:ARKK , but something tells me it can get to MONKEY ie $69 , and some whale or some bank also believes the juice could be worth the squeeze on this former high flyer... Past All Time Highs at $158 ... $53 now = Buy Low? - Probabilities_R_Us
AMEX:ARKKLong
by Prophecies_R_Us
Opening (IRA): TQQQ August 16th 73 Monied Covered Call... for a 70.80 debit. Comments: High IV at 55%. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against in the August 16th monthly to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I looked at doing something in the 45 DTE wheelhouse, which would be the August 30th expiry, but it was less liquid than the monthly, so opted to go shorter duration, with the plan being to roll out to the September monthly should we get further weakness and/or a test of 73. Otherwise, I'll look to just take profit at my standard 50% max. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 70.80 Max Profit: 2.20 ROC at Max: 3.11% 50% Max: 1.10 ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-8 : Counter-trend RallyHappy Friday everyone, Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Rally in Counter-trend mode. I interpret this as a moderate downward price trend for the SPY - possibly pulling the SPY into the GAP created after yesterday's opening GAP rally. I got into deep detail related to the potential anomaly event setting up over the next three weeks for the SPY & QQQ in this video. I also go into a fairly deep analysis of Gold and Silver - relating my expectations and how these moves align cleanly with an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. And, I even go into broad detail for BTCUSD and how I see multiple aligned Excess Phase Peak Patterns setting up to drive big trends over the next 3-4 weeks. As I stated near the end of this video, the next 5-7+ years are going to be filled with opportunity. I suggest everyone get ready for the biggest opportunity of your life. I hope you enjoy my videos and research. I know some of you have already experienced tremendous success following my research. I'm urging to you consider the opportunity that will be available as the markets continue to trend through my window of opportunity - and how you want to try to profit from these moves. Remember, the markets will always be there - but these opportunities are unique to the next 5-7+ years. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
Are Silver Miners Poised to Outperform Gold Miners?Introduction: At the start of 2024, we were strong advocates for precious metals, and this strategy is paying off. Gold is consistently reaching new all-time highs, while silver is surging to levels not seen in over twelve years, finally capturing public attention. However, during a genuine bull run in precious metals, it's crucial to watch for mining stocks to outperform the spot prices of the metals. The lesser-known secret among gold enthusiasts is that investing in mining stocks often yields higher returns than holding physical metals. Analysis: Spot Prices vs. Mining Stocks: While gold and silver spot prices are making impressive gains, the true potential lies in mining stocks. Historically, mining stocks outperform physical metals during strong bull runs because of their leveraged exposure to rising metal prices. Silver Outperformance: We focus on the potential for silver to outperform gold, especially as silver has been gaining momentum. In this context, it's key to monitor the performance of silver miners (SIL) compared to gold miners (GDX). Broadening Wedge Pattern: Currently, the ratio between SIL and GDX is forming a broadening wedge pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signal a surge in silver mining stocks, indicating a shift where silver miners may start to outshine their gold counterparts. Conclusion: As precious metals continue their strong performance, the focus shifts to mining stocks, where the potential for higher returns lies. A breakout in the SIL-to-GDX ratio could mark the beginning of a new phase, with silver miners taking the lead. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on this ratio as a key indicator of the next big move in the precious metals sector. What are your thoughts on this potential shift? Share your insights below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SIL-to-GDX ratio, the broadening wedge pattern, and potential breakout targets) Tags: #Gold #Silver #MiningStocks #PreciousMetals #SIL #GDX #TechnicalAnalysis
AMEX:SIL
by Richtv_official
SPY Near Resistance: Continuation or Pullback?Analysis: Price Trend & Momentum: SPY has shown a strong rally, breaking above previous resistance levels and establishing a new high at $596.65. However, the price action appears to be consolidating near the high, which might indicate a potential pause or a pullback before the next move. Volume Analysis: Volume has been decreasing as the price approached the $595-$596 zone, suggesting a lack of strong buying conviction at these elevated levels. Watch for a volume increase as an indication of continuation or reversal. Moving Averages: The 9 EMA is currently acting as support, with the price staying above it. This indicates that bulls are still in control. A break below the 9 EMA could lead to a retest of the 21 EMA, which is currently sitting around the $583.27 level. Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: $596.65 (recent high and potential double-top formation) Support Levels: First Support: $583.27 (strong support near the 21 EMA) Second Support: $579.47 (previous breakout level) Key Support: $575.58 (major pivot level, failure to hold here could lead to a deeper correction) Critical Support: $567.89 (previous swing low, below which bearish sentiment could intensify) MACD Analysis: MACD is showing a bearish crossover on the 1-hour chart, suggesting a loss of momentum. This could be an early sign of a pullback or consolidation phase. Price Action Expectation: Bullish Scenario: If SPY can hold above $595.58 and break above $596.65 with strong volume, we could see a continuation towards the $600 psychological level. Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold the $583.27 support could lead to a pullback towards the $579.47-$575.58 zone, where buyers might step in. A break below $575.58 would be a significant bearish signal. Conclusion: SPY has rallied significantly in the past few sessions, driven by strong market momentum. However, the current consolidation near resistance could indicate a potential pullback or a pause before the next leg up. Keep an eye on volume and the key support levels for confirmation of direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please perform your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights