UBRL 20-40%Small swing trade leveraged Uber ETF MAC D flipping bullish, Uber has found a nice support looking to break out above $75 to head to the $82 area. Initial rejection from 75.50 is possible for short term before continuation higher.
ETF market
Volatility metrics are pointing to short vol trade -> long SVXYThis volatility barometer takes signals for 12 different metrics. We are back to a short volatility trade (until we aren't). But I just watch this signals and stay nimble. Contango or backwardation is helpful but not the entire story.
This is a helpful site:
vixcentral.com
Short XLEInvestors are piling back into energy along with other inflation trades. There's a large gap down to $90.50 area. Crude oil, shown here by USO, has also tumbled.
Trade is off if XLE makes a new high or USO/crude oil turns up. Press into a short position if crude breaks below $65.
Could also work as a pair trade for those bullish on oil, going long USO.
$SPY correction incoming? Back below $550AMEX:SPY is putting in a short term top here.
All of the signs are there if you know what to look at. For example, NASDAQ:TLT up 2% today. AMEX:SPY sold off throughout the day. Crypto selling off. Volatility starting to react at the bottom of the range. Dollar continuing to rise.
The chart also is failing at resistance.
I could see one more attempt at a move higher, and if we fail at $602 or lower and fall back below $597, it'll be extremely bearish and the confidence in this move playing out strengthens.
I think we'll see $527-531 over the next couple of weeks. Playing the move through CBOE:UVXY calls.
SLV longgold en silver is in there long term up-trend, it looks like it found support at this place. On the montley view it could go a bith lower.
Nana Money+n is a multipler for a simple longterm dca buy and hold strategy.
Position sizes example: +5 +5 +10 +10 +15 +15 +20... NANA MONEY ALL-IN
(or maybe just keep dca it?)
Anyway, it's all about the meme, don't be Nana guy (not the German rapper).
Comparison chart to other trackers in mixed currencies (USD, EUR, CHF):
S&P500 (SPY) Hits Target #2 Today!Traders, though we've still got a ways to go to our final target of 670-700 on the SPY, it is worth celebrating our direct hit of 600 today. I remember a year ago drawing out 563 as a first target for our blow-off top and I was laughed at. Bears were in their mood and hungry. They wanted more blood. But a combo of our Elliot Wave and a daily inverse head and shoulders showed us exactly where we would hit.
Then I spotted this nice cup and handle on the weekly. If you remember, it was almost invalidated with that China carry trade flash crash. But I stood my ground and stated that we would need to see another weekly open and close below our neckline before the bet was off. That did not happen and we are well on our way to that 670-700 final target. However, before we get there, I do believe our 600 level on the charts will provide some psychological resistance. Admittedly, this was more of a guess than anything when I had drawn it up and placed it on my chart several weeks ago. But now, we are seeing overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Are we a bit over-heated? I think we may be and should be prepared to see a bit of a drop, or at least a week or so of sideways price action, before we break 600.
Unlike my first target at which I sold and buy the carry trade dip for massive profit, I don't know that I will be selling here. 600, as I stated already, was more of a guess than anything. But I am pretty decent at making these guesses. Experience and lots of psychology and chart study has taught me. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's watch and see what the market decides to do next week.
✌️ Stew
$SOXL Inverted Cup and Handlel (SELL NOW!)Grasping chart patterns is essential for market participants. This article explores the inverted cup and handle formation, a bearish signal that suggests potential downward movement.
The inverted cup and handle, also known as an upside-down cup and handle pattern, is a bearish chart pattern that can appear in both uptrends and downtrends. It is the reverse of the traditional bullish cup and handle pattern. The inverted formation consists of two main components: the "cup," an inverted U-shape, and the "handle," a small upward retracement following the cup.
SELL NASDAQ:NVDA AMEX:SOXL NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AVGO NASDAQ:QCOM NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:MU $TXN.
Lets BUY it again WHEN IT'S LOW guys.
Mark my word
ARKK LONGA lot of the top holdings in ARKK are breaking out, I like this ETF to $75+, can it happen fast? yeah, I bought time.
SPY 11/22 PlanUntil we are able to break above the trendline, We will continue to chop
Look at where they closed yesterday, right at it, and rejected.
We have to be patient, the move will come...
One thing to notice though was the retest of the trendline, as of now the retest was able to close above the trendline, but we need to see volume coming in for this move to happen.
If we go below 592 again, i believe we retest 589 fast.
$DIA Trading Range for this Week DIA opened at the very top of the Clyde move at 4:48. We are overbought here. I think we’re at the top of the week.
$IWM Today's Trading Range 11.25.24IWM is trying so hard to make those new all-time highs. We’re not far away from those highs made three years ago and today’s gap up was definitely a push and attempt to do that. We are definitely overbought here. Keep an eye on the 35 EMA if it does cross up in the rain today, expect a pull back and if not , then maybe tomorrow will hit those all-time highs. At that point I think will be pretty exhausted with this run. I know I’ll be a seller at all time.
$QQQ Trading Range for TodayAll right, we have an opening move to the top of the implied move and a pull back down to the gaps that were the island top that were resistance last week. We’re dropping it now. Looks like it wants to fill man. I wish I was more prepared to trade this one this one looks like fun. 30 minute to average and 35 EMA underneath us those should be targets and the implied movies between 50 one and 510 so far we are in the implied move
$SPY Trading Range for TodayAll right so today’s implied move is between 592 and 599 and add open. We capped up above 599 above previous all-time highs made new ones and pulled back down.
Tonight I’m gonna try and get these trading ranges in the videos. I’m traveling right now so it’s a little bit difficult but good luck today and I’ll see you guys tonight.
The 35 EMA is on the right side of the trading range today and be careful if it does come up into the green. I would expect pullback at that point.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-25-24 - Carryover TrendToday's pattern is a Carryover in Trend mode. Obviously, this is a holiday week, and because of low liquidity, I expect to see moderately wild price volatility.
Stay cautious, as price moves could be exaggerated this week.
Gold and Silver are still attempting to break higher and trading in a consolidated sideways price channel.
BTCUSD pauses into the holiday week.
This would be a good week to pause, read a good book, and avoid the risks in the global markets.
This shortened trading week will likely result in very wild price swings.
Stay cautious.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Might Dump MassivelyIt may be an unpopular opinion, but we see the SPY and thus the SP500 dumping massively.
This hidden bearish divergence is enormous and it would almost be a miracle if it is resolved without a sudden, sharp price drop.
QQQ Technical Short OpportunityTechnical SHORT opportunity in QQQ:
1. QQQ failed to fill gap from Friday. Very weak upward progression over the last 4 days
2. Thursday’s candle is a “bearish hanging man”
3. The last bearish wave retraced 66% of the prior upward move
4. There have been multiple tests of immediate support level (495-498)
5. QQQ has been weaker than S&P over the past 5 days
Profit target can be placed near the high-volume node at 488
Please note that the long-term trend remains “bullish,” and a short-term downside auction does not indicate an immediate reversal.
S&P 500 Weekly Recap: A Struggle to RecoverLast week’s market action reflected the ongoing struggle for recovery after the previous week’s sell-off. The market opened cautiously, with buyers stepping in to regain ground lost during the prior downturn. Despite early hesitation, bulls managed to push prices higher, eventually filling the gap created by the earlier sell-off. However, this recovery faced significant resistance from sellers, resulting in minimal upward progression in daily closes.
Strength in the recovery was primarily driven by Financials (XLF), which set a new all-time high. Other sectors, however, remained subdued, aligning with the broader market's hesitant tone. While this selectivity isn’t necessarily negative on its own, when combined with other signals, it may indicate growing risk aversion and a lack of conviction among market participants.
It is also worth zooming into the lower timeframes.
The 584 level provided key support but was retested multiple times during the week, which is not a good sign for buyers. Persistent tests of support typically indicate weakening demand, and bulls should be cautious of this development. Additionally, it was remarkable to observe how the rally went precisely to the Value Area Low ( 596 ) of the previous consolidation zone. Buyers should note that the market failed to push higher and close within the value area, signaling potential exhaustion of the current recovery attempt.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to push above 596 , reclaiming the previous value area, which would provide stronger validation for the recovery. On the other hand, bears will be focused on taking down the 584 level, where there is likely big liquidity pool.
Next week is rich in terms of key events.
The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release on Tuesday, preceded by significant economic data on Wednesday. These releases will be closely scrutinized as investors remain deeply concerned about the possibility of a recession. Any signals pointing toward a slowing economy could spark fear and trigger increased volatility.
While the long-term market trend remains intact, the warning signs outlined above suggest that investors should hold off on adding to their positions for the time being.
P.S. ES futures are currently rising in the pre-market session. If this momentum doesn't transform into a sell-off after the bell, it will certainly be a positive sign for the buyers.
$XLU BullishLooking like Utilities are on a run. They are testing the $82.13 We could scalp a trade from $81.45 to $82.13 for a $0.60 scalp and hold contracts above this level. Looking at the gaps, they have all filled, so upside potential is very likely with the AMEX:SPY rising. Trade the Trend and Follow the Trend.
Aiming for ResilienceRecent Performance: The Invesco QQQ Trust has displayed mixed performance,
recently showing bullish trends yet struggling to maintain momentum compared
to indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. The underperformance of key
technology stocks such as Nvidia, Apple, Google, and Meta has dampened
sentiment around QQQ, contributing to its inability to break key resistance
levels. While the overall market is trending upwards, QQQ's struggle
highlights the vulnerability of its tech-heavy composition.
- Key Insights: Traders should remain vigilant as QQQ faces critical resistance
at 514.98, which is essential for establishing a bullish outlook. The
support levels of 501.28 and 496.29 will play crucial roles in gauging QQQ's
resilience. Current market sentiment suggests that while broader indices may
regain traction, QQQ's performance hinges on the recovery of its major tech
constituents that are currently facing selling pressure.
- Expert Analysis: Market experts advocate for a cautious yet optimistic
approach to QQQ. There is a consensus on the necessity for robust
performance from major tech stocks to ensure QQQ can recover and progress.
While some analysts project potential upward movement supported by bullish
trends in other segments of the market, they stress that any sustained gain
in QQQ will depend heavily on overcoming resistance and the broader tech
market environment.
- Price Targets: Next week targets include T1 at 516.00 and T2 at 520.75. Stop
levels should be set with S1 at 501.28 and S2 at 496.29 to align with a
bullish strategy, as current market price of 505.79 fits the required
criteria.
- News Impact: Market participants are closely watching macroeconomic indicators
and sector-specific developments leading into holiday trading. Notably,
upcoming earnings reports from major tech firms could greatly influence
QQQ’s trajectory, adding to the significance of monitoring performance as
traders prepare for a potentially impactful period.
Take Advantage of SPY's Bullish Momentum Next WeekRecent Performance: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is currently showing strong
bullish momentum, trading at 595.51 and maintaining its position above all
major moving averages. Market reports indicate that buyers are actively
engaging, particularly as indices like the S&P 500 and Russell 2000
experience upward movement. Overall, SPY's recent trading activity reflects
resilience and an optimistic market outlook as it gears up for potential new
highs.
- Key Insights: Investors should focus on the bullish sentiment surrounding SPY,
as experts predict solidifying performance near critical resistance levels.
With inflation on the rise and projected rates around 4-5%, traders should
consider how these factors affect their strategies. The potential for a soft
economic landing amidst inflationary pressures presents both opportunities
and challenges in navigating SPY's upcoming movements.
- Expert Analysis: Market analysts express a predominantly bullish sentiment for
SPY, anticipating a challenge at resistance levels which could catalyze
further upward momentum. The continued discussions regarding interest rates
and inflation will remain pivotal in shaping market conditions and investor
sentiment. Despite a likely increase in market volatility towards the end of
December, there is cautious optimism for SPY's ability to maintain its
upward trajectory.
- Price Targets: Based on current market dynamics:
Next week targets:
T1: 600
T2: 605
Stop levels:
S1: 593.73
S2: 591.94
These targets align with the projected trading range and support levels,
providing realistic expectations for the next week's performance while
maintaining robust bullish strategies.
- News Impact: Upcoming volatility is expected in the markets due to inflation
concerns and key interest rate discussions. As we near December, trading
activity may fluctuate, influenced by holiday sentiments. Market
participants should closely monitor SPY's price movements around the 600
resistance level, as it could serve as a critical juncture for testing
bullish strength, shaping trading strategies accordingly.
Potential Paths for QQQ This WeekWe may or may not get some good price action this week. The week of thanksgiving is pretty terrible for trading most of the time, but we have a lot of potential catalysts this week. I would still avoid Wednesday.
If this futures move holds up overnight, it looks like QQQ may gap up above $507.84. if that's the case, I'd have bullish bias until it breaks below. I'd be looking for longs on any retests of the area. We may not get much of a pullback and head straight up for a test of the trendlines above which I think will likely provide at least one rejection.
If we don't hold up overnight and open lower, downside targets would be $503.52 and then $492.80.
SPY Ascending Triangle pattern AND Rising WedgeAMEX:SPY Printing a nice ascending triangle pattern along a rising wedge. Could go either way as marked out but considering last weeks action the time for the rally of santa is here as we head into the day of the great Turkey. Some fat wall street bankers have to cover and generate returns they keep pushing people out of positions just to buy them up. Very likely we set a new ATH on SPY this week. We just as easily could reverse as rising wedges tend to be bearish signals.
