ETF market
UVIX...easy trade 4X!VIX is showing massive pulse and with that come UVIX futures that will reflect this. I'm already up, but with the sell off and inflation pending next year UVIX could jump very high. Very nice upside before it becomes pricey again.
Do your DD and best of luck!
$SPY ChatGPT's predicted 12/19 Move Per chatGPT
www.tradingview.com
Considering the anticipated GDP report and its potential impact on market sentiment, here are three scenarios for SPY’s intraday high and low:
1. Best-Case Scenario:
• High: $600
• Low: $585
Assumption: The GDP report exceeds expectations, indicating robust economic growth, which boosts investor confidence and leads to a market rally.
2. Moderate Scenario:
• High: $590
• Low: $580
Assumption: The GDP report aligns with forecasts, suggesting steady economic conditions. The market reacts with cautious optimism, resulting in moderate price movements.
3. Worst-Case Scenario
• High: $580
• Low: $570
Assumption: The GDP report falls short of expectations, signaling potential economic slowdown. This triggers investor concern, leading to a market sell-off and lower SPY prices.
Note: These scenarios are hypothetical and depend on various factors, including investor sentiment, market liquidity, and broader economic indicators.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again.
I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward.
Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening.
I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend.
Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now.
Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern.
$95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
No One Good Trade Today: Here is A Quick Market BreakdownWe saw major volatility in the market yesterday. This is not something that we could have predicted. It is our job to be on the right side of the market today and moving foward after this move. In my morning overview yesterday, I talked about about how the federal reserve would cut but, likely not cut into 2025. Apparently, this was not common knowledge and it scared markets.
SMH | SHORTNASDAQ:SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Weekly Analysis:
Current Price Action:
SMH is trading at $218.43, down 9.10% for the week.
Price has breached the upward trendline support, indicating potential further downside.
Key Levels:
Bearish Line: $214.18
Target Price 1: $199.15
Target Price 2: $172.35
Target Price 3: $155.65
Target Price 4: $136.10
Support Zones:
Immediate support is expected around $199.15.
Further support levels are $172.35, $155.65, and $136.10.
Resistance Levels:
Resistance is at the broken trendline near $240, followed by the recent high around $300.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI is at 53.98, trending downwards, suggesting weakening momentum.
Volume:
Volume is significant at 75.462M, indicating strong selling pressure.
Conclusion:
SMH's breakdown below key support levels and significant bearish momentum suggest further downside potential. Watch for reactions around $199.15 and $172.35 for potential entry points or further declines.
Why not?See the pattern? SPY closed within the ascending channel. We might see a green weekly candle next week.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust ETF Technical Analysis Trade This chart highlights a parabolic uptrend in IBIT, with price making a significant move from consolidation to new highs. The chart includes pivot levels (S1, R1, R2), dark pool levels, moving averages (8 EMA and 21 EMA), and volume, all of which help in understanding the current price action and predicting potential moves.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Structure:
The chart shows a strong uptrend supported by the 8 EMA and 21 EMA.
A breakout above the 61.99 resistance (R1) occurred recently, but price has since pulled back slightly, consolidating near 56.10, which aligns with a dark pool level.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Levels:
61.99 (R1): The key breakout level, which price is currently retesting as resistance.
68.77 (R2): The next significant resistance and a long-term target for bulls.
Support Levels:
56.10: A dark pool level and immediate support zone.
53.00: Key short-term support near the 21 EMA.
47.30 (S1): A deeper support level in case of a larger pullback.
3. Volume Analysis:
A high volume breakout occurred recently, suggesting strong interest from institutions or retail traders.
However, recent volume bars are slightly lower, indicating that the bullish momentum is consolidating. This could lead to either a continuation higher or a pullback to support.
4. Moving Averages:
The 8 EMA is currently acting as immediate dynamic support, while the 21 EMA (~53.00) provides a secondary layer of support.
As long as the price remains above these moving averages, the uptrend remains intact.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Trigger: A breakout above 61.99 (R1) on high volume would confirm bullish continuation.
Profit Targets:
68.77 (R2): The next major resistance level.
70-75: A potential extension zone in a strong parabolic move.
Stop-Loss: Below 56.10, as a break below this level would signal a loss of bullish momentum.
Scenario 2: Pullback to Support
Trigger: If price fails to break above 61.99 and pulls back, look for buying opportunities near:
56.10 (dark pool level): Immediate support.
53.00 (21 EMA): A stronger support level for a bounce.
Profit Targets:
61.99: Retest of the breakout level.
68.77 (R2): Higher target if the trend resumes.
Stop-Loss: Below 52, as this would indicate a breakdown below the key EMAs.
Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown
Trigger: A strong close below 53.00 with high volume would signal bearish momentum.
Profit Targets:
47.30 (S1): First major pivot support.
41.00-43.00: A retest of previous consolidation levels.
Stop-Loss: Above 56.10, as a reclaim of this level would invalidate the bearish thesis.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near 56.10 suggests the potential for either a breakout above 61.99 or a pullback to key support zones.
Long-Term Outlook: The parabolic nature of the trend suggests strong bullish sentiment, with deeper pullbacks offering opportunities to re-enter the trend.
Watch volume closely to confirm either a breakout or a breakdown, as institutional activity (dark pool levels) will likely play a significant role.
QQQ Trade AnalysisThis chart represents the daily timeframe for QQQ, showcasing a mix of technical indicators like pivot points (S1, S2, R1, etc.), exponential moving averages (EMAs), trendlines, dark pool levels, and volume. The chart indicates a recent pullback in a long-term uptrend, with price sitting near a key support zone.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Analysis:
Long-Term Trend:
The green ascending trendline suggests a consistent long-term bullish trend.
The price is still well above this trendline, indicating the broader trend remains intact.
Recent Pullback:
Price recently tested the R2 pivot (534.52), indicating an overbought condition, and has since pulled back.
It is now consolidating near the S1 pivot (490.80) and the 21 EMA, which are critical short-term support levels.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Levels:
R1 (522.13) and R2 (534.52) are the immediate resistance zones. Price rejection at these levels confirms sellers’ presence.
R3 (553.45) is the long-term target if the bullish trend resumes.
Support Levels:
S1 (490.80): Current support level and pivot zone.
S2 (471.87): A deeper support zone near the green trendline, likely to act as a strong barrier.
Dark Pool Levels:
508.70 (recent activity) may serve as minor resistance.
496.39 and 480.70 indicate institutional interest zones that could provide support.
3. Volume Analysis:
Recent volume spike on the pullback indicates increased participation, potentially signaling a shift in momentum.
Red candles with high volume often signal distribution, but if price stabilizes near support, this could indicate accumulation by institutions.
4. Moving Averages:
Price has fallen below the 8 EMA, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
However, the 21 EMA near 490.80 acts as a critical level. A rebound from this area could indicate a resumption of the uptrend.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from S1 (490.80)
Trigger: A bounce off the S1 pivot and reclaim of the 8 EMA (~508.70) would signal a bullish continuation.
Profit Targets:
508.70: Dark pool resistance and 8 EMA level.
522.13 (R1): Swing high and key resistance zone.
534.52 (R2): Longer-term resistance.
Stop-Loss: Below 486, as a break below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below S1 (490.80)
Trigger: A strong close below the S1 pivot with increasing volume would confirm bearish momentum.
Profit Targets:
480.70: Dark pool support.
471.87 (S2): Pivot support and intersection with the green trendline.
459.48 (S3): Deeper downside target.
Stop-Loss: Above 500, as this would indicate a reversal back above key support.
Scenario 3: Long-Term Reversal Near Trendline Support
If price continues lower, the green trendline near 471.87 offers a high-probability buying opportunity, especially if accompanied by lower volume on the decline.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near S1 (490.80) requires confirmation of direction. A breakout above the 8 EMA would favor bulls, while a breakdown below S1 opens the door for further downside.
Long-Term Outlook: The green trendline and dark pool levels suggest strong institutional support on deeper pullbacks, keeping the broader bullish trend intact.
MSTX: The Coiled SpringFollowing MSTX's descent to $60, technical indicators are painting a picture that screams opportunity.
Daily Chart:
Weekly Chart:
The CM_Ult_MaCD has bottomed out completely, and if you've traded long enough, you know what that means - upward momentum is coming, and it's coming fast.
The setup is textbook perfect. We're seeing the Stochastic oscillator flirting with oversold territory, and anyone who's been in this game knows that's when you want to position yourself. It's not just about timing - it's about recognizing the patterns that repeat themselves.
What's really getting my attention is the SQZMOM_LB indicator. Those VIX spikes we're seeing aren't random noise - they're telling us a squeeze is brewing. When this pressure cooker blows, we could see rapid upside movement that'll catch the shorts off guard.
Speaking of shorts, they've shown their hand at the $60 VWAP level. Both daily and weekly charts confirm this sweet spot, and I'm seeing all the signs of a short sweep setting up. This is exactly the kind of technical confluence that precedes significant moves.
I'm anticipating MSTX to first reclaim the $100 level, with potential to test previous highs around $175-200. The short squeeze, when it triggers, could accelerate this movement significantly. Smart money will be watching these levels closely.
The key here is patience.
Let the technicals confirm what we're seeing. When that squeeze triggers - and it will - you'll want to be positioned ahead of the crowd.
Stay tuned for updates as this play develops.
$50 by Nov 5
Appears we've had an accelerated move to the low $40's already. Was expecting this by x-mas.
Now expecting a move to $50 by election day. There is some uncertainty who will win, but a push to the 88.6% fib is highly probable.
Depending on who wins, we will see a push to between $54-62 range, or a temporary retrace.
Feds have cleared the way for more rate cuts. Mostly likely another .25 before election day, just so they look good, but not "influencing" the market/election in any way, of course.
12/19/24 - Here is a new SELL breakout chosen mechanically: ETHE12/19/24 - Here is a new SELL breakout chosen by a completely rules based, mechanical trading system:
SELL SHORT : ETHE
Stop Loss @ 34.07
Entry SELL SHORT @ 28.31
Target Profit @ 22.19
Shopping spree done?Inflation looming, possible drone invasion, uncertainty with our very stable economy. Do I believe we are in a bull market? No... Volatility has a way of creating a bull market behaviour, but it's usually a credit fueled shopping spree. I could see the spx continue to drop till after the new years, and more. There may be a spring bounce after elections has simmered down, but I wouldn't be investing too much into it .
ZEB LongCanadian banks progressing well, entry here on the 4 hour. Pure trend following with long SL.
Agricultural commodities outperforming After a +20% gain in the first quarter of the year, AMEX:DBA formed a 30-week base respecting the 2022 highs
Price resolver higher confirming the continuation of the uptrend making 52-week highs
This week has been very bad for the equity indexes, but AMEX:DBA is making 3 month highs relative to the SP:SPX
The best thing to do in this kind of market environment is to look for what is outperforming
IWM CORRECTIONAs we can see, there has been a correction since the presentation of the FOMC meeting, with a break in the bullish structure we had in the indices. IWM is one of the most bearish indices, breaking bullish structures in the 4-hour timeframe and losing strength in the daily timeframe. Although there hasn’t been a change in the daily timeframe yet, we are losing momentum and should recover the daily channel. In my view, it is the weakest index.
QQQ correction end 2024 - more strong than SPYAs we can see, there has been a correction since the presentation of the FOMC meeting, with a break in the bullish structure we had in the indices. QQQ broke bullish structures in 2-hour timeframes, but for now, it shows a more bullish movement than SPY. We should recover the 4-hour channel to maintain an upward movement in the 4-hour and daily timeframes.
Como podemos ver tenemos una correccion desde la presentacion de la reunion de la FOMC, con una ruptura de las estructura alcista que teniamos en los indices, QQQ rompio estructuras alcista en temporalidades de 2horas, pero por el momento tenemos un movimiento mas alcista que el SPY y deberiamos recuperar el canal de 4HS para mantener un movimento alcista en la temporalidad de 4hs y diaria.
SPY CORRECTION END 2024 - 2025As we can see, there has been a correction since the presentation of the FOMC meeting, with a break in the bullish structure we had in the indices. SPY broke bullish structures in 2-hour and 4-hour timeframes, and we should recover the daily channel to maintain an upward movement in the daily timeframe.
Como podemos ver tenemos una correccion desde la presentacion de la reunion de la FOMC, con una ruptura de las estructura alcista que teniamos en los indices, SPY rompio estructuras alcista en temporalidades de 2horas, 4 horas y deberiamos recuperar el canal de la diaria para mantener un movimento alcista en la temporalidad de la diaria.
Gold vs. Silver: Is the Ratio Signaling a Major ShiftIntroduction:
Precious metals are displaying promising price action, warranting a closer look at the gold AMEX:GLD to silver AMEX:SLV ratio. This ratio provides valuable insights during bull markets:
Bullish Silver: In a strong bull market, silver typically outperforms gold, causing the ratio to decline.
Gold Leading: Recently, gold has taken the lead, advancing in a corrective rally, but there are signs this could change.
Analysis:
Inverted Saucer Formation: On the gold-to-silver ratio chart, a large inverted saucer formation is emerging. This bearish pattern indicates a potential breakdown below key support levels, signaling silver’s outperformance in the months ahead.
What to Watch:
A confirmed breakdown of support in this ratio could signal a major shift in favor of silver.
If silver outperforms, prices could surge to retest its 2011 highs of $48-$50 next year.
Gold Outlook: Despite the shift in favor of silver, gold remains bullish. A breakout could target significant upside, with price projections of $3,300-$3,400.
Trade Setup:
Silver Bullish Setup:
Trigger: A breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio, confirming silver’s relative strength.
Target: SLV retesting $48-$50.
Stop Loss: Manage risk by placing stops near recent support levels in silver.
Gold Bullish Setup:
Gold continues to show strength, targeting $3,300-$3,400. Monitor for breakouts in gold prices alongside silver’s potential surge.
Conclusion:
The precious metals setup looks increasingly bullish. The gold-to-silver ratio is hinting at a shift toward silver outperformance, a hallmark of true bull markets. If this scenario plays out, silver could retest its 2011 highs, while gold targets new all-time highs. This is a chart and setup worth keeping a close eye on in the coming months. Which metal do you think will lead the charge? Share your thoughts below!
Charts:
(Include charts showing the gold-to-silver ratio with the inverted saucer formation, key support levels, and projected breakdown targets. Add gold and silver price charts highlighting bullish setups.)
Tags: #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #GLD #SLV #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingIdeas
Stock Watchlist Alert - Hngsngbees🚨 Stock Watchlist Alert 🚨
📊 Here's a chart analysis showing a potential VCP pattern forming.
Key details:
Sharp initial breakout: +45.17% gain 🚀
Current consolidation: ~73 days 📅
Resistance at ₹360-₹380 🔵
Volume dynamics and structure suggest a potential breakout above resistance levels. Adding this to my watchlist for a breakout opportunity! 📈
#StockMarket #ChartAnalysis
Weekly close 15.65This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
$XHB - ShortSimilar to AMEX:SRS which is a short against real estate, AMEX:XHB is the home builders index. We again see a revesal candle into the prior qrtrs mother bar, if it closes inside the mother bar, a strong top signal is created.
$SRSI occasionally check this ticker… it’s a ultra short real estate etf. It constantly depreciates similar to the vix. Last time this security ticked up it was a precursor to the 21/22’ sell off. With this qrtrly reversal candle pushing back into several qrtr back’s mother bar at the low we may see a rush to cover.
