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EUR/USD Clings to Key Support Ahead of Fed DecisionEUR/USD is holding its breath at a significant support level as the Federal Reserve gears up for tomorrow’s interest rate decision. The market is balancing what feels like a finely poised mix: sticky inflation, resilient US economic data, and the risk of overly aggressive policy easing. In short, the market is jittery, and EUR/USD is reflecting that perfectly. The Technical Picture Let’s take a step back. After the steady decline through the second half of the year, EUR/USD has spent the past month consolidating near the October 2023 lows. This long-term support level has held firm so far, but the price action is far from convincing. We’ve already seen two false breakouts recently. At the end of November, there was a fake dip below support, quickly followed by an equally fleeting move above the range earlier this month. These two extremes set the boundaries of the current consolidation phase and tell us one thing—EUR/USD is coiling up, and something’s got to give. Adding to the tension, the top of the recent range now lines up with the descending trendline that’s defined the pair’s medium-term downtrend. This confluence of technical factors puts EUR/USD in a tight corner just as the Fed is about to weigh in. EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Zoomed View: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Scenarios to Watch 1. Dovish Cut – The Fed Eases Off the Brakes If Powell and the team deliver a quarter-point cut and hint at a more accommodative stance next year, EUR/USD could finally catch a bid. A clean break above the descending trendline and recent range highs would signal a shift in momentum, with the 200 day moving average quickly coming into focus as the next area of interest. 2. As-Expected but Cautious – Status Quo for Now The more likely scenario is a measured quarter-point cut paired with Powell keeping his cards close to his chest. If the Fed reiterates a gradual approach and avoids overpromising future cuts, EUR/USD could stay stuck in its current range. In this case, the October lows remain the line in the sand, with the pair trudging sideways until there’s more clarity. 3. Hawkish Tilt – The Fed Pushes Back If Powell leans more hawkish—acknowledging the resilience of the US economy and refusing to commit to further easing—EUR/USD could crack. A decisive break below the October lows would clear the way for a fresh leg lower. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Capitalcom
GBPCAD MODULEWe are focusing on the 4-hour time frame chart to analyze the potential moves and changes in GBP/CAD price. Based on my bias, I am expecting a sell in the market today. Let's see what kind of opportunity the market provides. It is very important to get confirmation before taking a trade, so always wait for confirmation. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis or prediction. #GBPCAD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Short
by TradeTacticsreal
Pound steady after hot UK wage growth, CPI nextThe Canadian dollar continues to lose ground. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4315, up 0.48% at the time of writing. The Canadian dollar has declined 2.2% in December and is trading at its lowest level since mid-March. Canada's inflation eased to 1.9% in November, down from 2% in October and shy of the market expectations of 2%. However, the trimmed-mean core rate remained unchanged at  2.7%, higher than the market estimate of 2.5%. This is above the Bank of Canada's target of 2% and will complicate plans to continue to lower interest rates. The BoC has been the leader among major central banks in lowering rates, with five rate cuts since June for a total of 175 basis points. The central bank chopped the benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% last week but indicated in the rate statement that it expected a "more gradual approach to monetary policy", which means we can expect 25-bp increments in rate cuts if there are no surprises in inflation or employment data. US retail sales sparkled, another sign that the US economy remains robust. Retail sales jumped 3.8% y/y in November, following an upwardly revised 2.9% in October. This was the highest annual gain since last December. Monthly, retail sales rose 0.7%, above the upwardly revised 0.5% gain in October and the market estimate of 0.5%. US consumers have opened their wallets for the holiday season and motor vehicles and online sales helped drive the gain. The strong retail sales report didn't change expectations for a rate cut on Wednesday, which stand at 99%, according to the CME's FedWatch. US PMIs on Monday pointed to a mixed bag. The Services PMI rose in December to 58.5 from 56.1 in November and above the forecast of 55.7. This was the highest level in over three years as the services economy is showing impressive expansion. The manufacturing sector is in dreadful shape and weakened to 48.3, down from 49.7 in November and below the market estimate of 49.8. Output and new orders are down as the demand for exports remains weak. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.4289. Above, there is resistance at 1.4343 1.4191 and 1.4137 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EURUSD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisEURUSD is moving in an UPWARD channel. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity EURUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
3
USDJPY - Short active !!Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect bearish price action as price rejected from bearish OB + institutional big figure 154.000. As well we have hidden divergence for sell. Fundamental news: On Wednesday (GMT+2) we will see results of Interest Rate on USD and on Thursday on JPY, news with high impact on currencies. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Short
by Snick3rSD
EURCAD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisEURCAD is moving in an UP trend channel. The chart broke through the dynamic Resistance line.. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity EURCAD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
3
EURUSD SELL ZONE URUSD – Key Sell Zone Identified EURUSD is trading near a strong resistance area around 1.05270 – 1.05340, indicating a potential sell opportunity. Trade Setup: Sell Zone: 1.05270 – 1.05340 Support Levels: First Target (TP1): 1.04825 Second Target (TP2): 1.04511 Trade Plan: Entry: Wait for price rejection or bearish confirmation in the sell zone. Stop Loss: Above 1.05340 (safe protection against breakout). Take Profit Targets: TP1: 1.04825 (mid-support zone) TP2: 1.04511 (lower support zone) Outlook: Price action suggests a potential downward movement after rejection from the resistance zone. Manage risk carefully and follow confirmation signals for entry.
by FOREXQUEEEN_1
9
"Preparing for a Short Trade on GBP/USD as Dollar Strengthens""I’m currently waiting for a scenario like this to unfold, or something similar, before I consider opening a short position on GBP/USD. I’m also looking for confirmation before actually executing the trade. Based on my analysis, I expect the dollar to strengthen in the near future, which is why I believe that a short position on GBP/USD could be a profitable move. However, I’ll stay cautious and monitor the market closely before making any decisions."
Short
by sinaaf
USD/MXN Holding the Rising Trendline, Key Resistance in SightChart Analysis: The USD/MXN pair continues to respect the rising trendline (black), maintaining its bullish structure. Price action remains constructive as it hovers near 20.25, with a key resistance level around 20.80. 1️⃣ Rising Trendline Support: The trendline, initiated from mid-June lows, has consistently supported price dips. This upward trajectory remains intact for now. 2️⃣ Key Resistance Zone: The 20.80 level (horizontal black line) marks a critical resistance area, where price struggled to break higher earlier this month. A move above this could signal renewed bullish momentum. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Price remains above the 50-day SMA at 20.12, confirming short-term bullish strength. 200-day SMA (red): The longer-term bullish trend remains intact, with the 200-day SMA rising steadily around 18.55. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: Hovering near 51.41, signaling neutral momentum. Traders may watch for a push into overbought territory if price challenges resistance. MACD: The MACD remains flat, with the signal line just above zero, suggesting indecision in short-term momentum. What to Watch: A sustained break above 20.80 could signal continuation of the bullish trend and bring new highs into focus. If the rising trendline fails, traders may monitor the 50-day SMA near 20.12 as a key support level. USD/MXN remains bullish within its rising trendline structure, with the 20.80 resistance level standing as a critical hurdle. Momentum and price action suggest a key decision point ahead. -MW
by FOREXcom