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GBPJPY in a Very Risky Bearish ScenarioGBPJPY in a Very Risky Bearish Scenario The BOJ hasn't supported the JPY for a long time, and it doesn't seem to be doing better now. Without delving deeply into this topic, we can observe that GBPJPY didn't react at all yesterday, even as all GBP pairs increased significantly after the UK data release. Today, the price is getting ready for a bearish breakout from the bullish channel pattern. Considering the hesitation for a bullish wave yesterday, the chances are growing for a bearish wave, despite the high risk it entails. The areas where the price may face strong support are 193.85, 192.90, and 191.00. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
4
EUR/JPY 4H Timeframe AnalysisEUR/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis: The EUR/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having successfully broken the downtrend with a breach of minor key resistance at 158.000, which has now turned into support. The formation of higher highs and higher lows confirms this trend change and indicates bullish momentum. The recent break of the next minor resistance at 159.4 confirms that buyers have stepped in, with price action moving towards the next major key level at 161.100. Additionally, the concept of manipulation or liquidity grabs at key levels is crucial. The price has temporarily broken through significant levels, hunting stop losses before reversing direction. This stage has already occurred, and the price is now poised to break the major key resistance. Price Action Expectation: We are observing liquidity forming below the major key level. We are waiting for a breakout above 161.100 to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. The plan is to place a buy stop order at 161.430, just above the major resistance, allowing entry once a move beyond this level is confirmed. A stop loss is considered below the liquidity at 160.700, which is a strategic location for risk management. Trade Setup: Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry Price: 161.430 (just above the major resistance after a breakout) Stop Loss: 160.700 (below the liquidity zone) Take Profit: At the next major resistance level Additional Considerations: You also mentioned a potential bearish flag pattern, which suggests a possible short breakout in the future. However, more confluence or confirmation is needed before placing sell orders. The flag pattern could signal a potential reversal, so it’s important to wait for confirmation, such as a break below a support level or a bearish candlestick pattern, before acting on a short setup. Conclusion: The USD/JPY pair is exhibiting bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators and a favorable fundamental outlook. Key economic indicators from the US, such as PMI, retail sales, and the Federal Funds rate, will significantly influence market sentiment and the USD's strength against the JPY. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakouts and ensure proper risk management strategies are in place. Fundamental Outlook: The upcoming BOJ (Bank of Japan) Policy Rate decision this Thursday is likely to impact the EUR/JPY pair. If the BOJ maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy with no changes to rates, we could see the JPY remain weak, supporting the continuation of the EUR/JPY uptrend. However, if the BOJ signals a shift towards tightening or offers hawkish commentary, we might see JPY strength, leading to a pullback in EUR/JPY. Market sentiment will be crucial—hawkish news from the BOJ could trigger a risk-off move, benefiting the JPY, while dovish news may encourage a risk-on sentiment, driving EUR/JPY higher. Traders should remain cautious around the BOJ release, as volatility could lead to price manipulation or liquidity grabs, particularly near the 161.100 resistance level.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
#EURNZD 2HEURNZD 2-Hour Analysis The EURNZD pair is forming a rising wedge pattern on the 2-hour chart, which often signals a potential bearish reversal. The price is trading near the wedge's upper levels, and a breakdown below the support line would confirm selling pressure, offering further sell opportunities. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Rising Wedge Forecast: Bearish (Sell, and Sell More on Support Line Breakdown) Entry Strategy: Initiate a sell position if the price shows bearish signals near the wedge's resistance. Add to the position or open new sell trades once the support line is broken and confirmed with a retest or bearish price action. Traders should monitor indicators like RSI for overbought conditions or MACD for bearish crossovers to strengthen the case for a sell. Use proper risk management by setting stop-loss orders above the wedge resistance and targeting key support levels below the breakdown point.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
#GBPAUD 1DAYGBPAUD Daily Analysis The GBPAUD pair is trading near the resistance line of an uptrend channel on the daily chart, suggesting a potential reversal or correction from this level. The channel resistance indicates strong selling pressure, making it a key area to watch for bearish setups. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Uptrend Channel Resistance Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a sell position if the price confirms rejection at the channel resistance through bearish price action signals, such as a bearish engulfing candlestick or a double top pattern. Traders should use indicators like RSI to check for overbought conditions or MACD for divergence that signals weakening bullish momentum. Apply proper risk management by placing stop-loss orders above the channel resistance and setting profit targets at key support levels within the channel.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading? The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a strategic trading approach designed to exploit false breakouts in financial markets. By understanding and leveraging liquidity grabs, traders can identify potential reversals and enter trades with relative precision. This article delves into the components of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, how to identify and use it, and its potential advantages and limitations, providing traders with valuable insights to potentially enhance their trading strategies. The ICT Turtle Soup Pattern Explained ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern developed by the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) that focuses on exploiting false breakouts in the market. This ICT price action strategy aims to identify and take advantage of situations where the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, only to reverse direction shortly after. This movement is often seen in ranging markets where prices oscillate between established highs and lows. The concept behind ICT Turtle Soup trading is rooted in the idea of liquidity hunts and market imbalances. When the price breaks out, it often triggers stop-loss orders set by other traders, creating a temporary imbalance. The ICT Turtle Soup strategy seeks to capitalise on this by entering trades in the opposite direction once the breakout fails and the price returns to its previous range​. The pattern is named humorously after the original Turtle Traders' strategy, which focuses on genuine breakouts. In contrast, ICT Turtle Soup takes advantage of these failed attempts, thus "making soup out of turtles" by transforming unproductive breakout attempts into potentially effective trades​. Typically, traders look for specific signs of a false breakout, such as a price briefly moving above a recent high or below a recent low but failing to sustain the move. This strategy is particularly effective when used in conjunction with other ICT concepts, such as higher timeframe analysis and understanding of market structure​. Components of the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern To effectively utilise the ICT Turtle Soup setup, it’s essential to understand its core components: order flow and market structure, liquidity, and internal versus external liquidity. Order Flow and Market Structure Order flow and market structure are critical in analysing the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. This involves observing price movements and traders' behaviour in different timeframes. Traders can analyse higher and lower timeframe price movements in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Higher Timeframe Structure This refers to the broader trend governing the lower timeframe trend. For traders using the 15m-1h charts to trade, this might mean structure visible on 4-hour, daily, or weekly charts. Higher timeframe structures help traders identify the major support and resistance levels. These levels are essential as they mark the boundaries within which the market generally oscillates. Traders use these to determine the prevailing market direction and potential areas where false breakouts (stop hunts) are likely to occur​. Lower Timeframe Structure Lower timeframe structures are examined on hourly or minute charts. These provide a more detailed view of price action within the higher timeframe’s range and account for the bullish and bearish legs that dictate a broader higher timeframe trend. Liquidity and Stop Hunts In general trading terms, liquidity represents how easy it is to enter or exit a market. However, in the context of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, areas of liquidity can be identified beyond key swing points. Stop Hunts Stop hunts, also known as a liquidity sweep, occur when the price temporarily moves above a resistance level or below a support level to trigger stop-loss orders. This movement creates a liquidity spike as traders' stops are hit, providing a favourable condition for the price to reverse direction. ICT Turtle Soup traders seek to exploit these moments by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction once the liquidity is absorbed. Internal and External Liquidity Understanding internal and external liquidity is vital for applying the ICT Turtle Soup pattern effectively. Internal Liquidity This refers to the liquidity available within the range of the higher timeframe structure. It involves identifying smaller support and resistance levels within the larger range. For example, in a bullish leg, there will be a series of higher highs and higher lows; beneath these higher lows is where internal liquidity rests. This internal liquidity will be targeted to form a bearish leg as part of a higher timeframe bullish trend. External Liquidity This involves liquidity that exists outside the key highs and lows of the higher timeframe trend. To use the example of the bullish leg in a higher timeframe bullish trend, the low it originated from and the high it creates as the bearish retracement begins count as areas of external liquidity. Order Blocks and Imbalances While not directly involved in the ICT Turtle Soup setup, understanding order blocks and imbalances can provide insight into where the price might head and the general market context. Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling activity has previously occurred, often due to institutional orders. These blocks represent zones of support and resistance where the price is likely to react. Bullish Order Blocks These are typically found at the base of a significant upward move and indicate zones where buying interest is strong. When the price revisits these areas, it often finds support, making them potential entry points for long trades​. Bearish Order Blocks Conversely, these are located at the top of significant downward moves and signal strong selling interest. These zones often act as resistance when revisited, making them strategic points for short trades​. Imbalances Imbalances, or fair value gaps (FVGs), are price regions where the market has moved too quickly, creating a significant disparity between the number of long and short trades. These gaps often occur due to high volatility and indicate areas where the market might revisit to "fill" the gap, thereby achieving fair value. In other words, when a price rapidly moves in one direction, it leaves behind an area with little to no trading activity. The market often returns to these imbalanced zones to facilitate proper price discovery and liquidity. How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Strategy Here's a detailed breakdown of how traders use the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. Establishing a Bias Traders begin by analysing the higher timeframe trend, such as the daily or weekly charts, to establish a market bias. This analysis helps determine whether the market is predominantly bullish or bearish. Identifying this trend is crucial as it guides where to look for potential Turtle Soup setups. For instance, the example above shows AUDUSD initially moving down after a bullish movement off-screen. It eventually breaks above the lower high, indicating that the higher timeframe trend may now be bullish. Similarly, the shorter-term downtrend beginning from mid-May also saw a new high, meaning a trader may want to look for long positions. Identifying Internal Liquidity Once the higher timeframe trend is established, traders look for a move counter to that higher timeframe trend. In the example shown, this would be a downtrend counter to the bullish structure break. They mark levels of internal liquidity; in a bullish leg, these would be below swing lows and vice versa. These areas are likely to attract stop-loss orders. Looking for Liquidity Taps The next step involves waiting for these internal liquidity areas to be tapped. This typically happens when the price briefly breaks through a support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before quickly reversing direction. Ideally, the price should tap into the same area or order block where the internal liquidity formed and then exhibit a quick reversal, often leaving just a small wick. This movement indicates a liquidity grab, where large players have taken out stops to facilitate their own orders. Lower Timeframe Confirmation After identifying a liquidity grab beyond this internal liquidity level, traders look for an entry. On a lower timeframe, they look for a similar pattern: internal liquidity being run and a subsequent break of structure in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. This involves price retracing back inside the range to fill an imbalance and meet an order block, which provides a precise entry point. Executing the Trade Once these conditions are met, traders typically enter the market. Specifically, they’ll often leave a limit order at an order block to trade in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. They place a stop loss just beyond the liquidity grab, either above the recent high for a short trade or below the recent low for a long trade. Profit targets are often set at key liquidity levels, such as previous highs or lows, where the market is likely to encounter significant activity​. Potential Advantages and Limitations The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a trading strategy with several potential benefits and drawbacks. Advantages - Precision: Allows for precise entry points by identifying false breakouts and liquidity grabs​. - Adaptability: Effective across different timeframes and market conditions, including ranging and trending markets. - Risk Management: Built-in risk management by placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab points. Limitations - Complexity: Requires a deep understanding of market structure, liquidity, and order flow, making it challenging for less experienced traders​. - Market Conditions: Less effective in highly volatile or illiquid markets where false signals are more common. - Time-Consuming: Demands continuous monitoring of multiple timeframes to identify valid setups, which can be time-intensive. The Bottom Line The ICT Turtle Soup pattern offers traders a powerful tool to identify and exploit false breakouts in the market. By understanding its components and applying the strategy effectively, traders can potentially enhance their trading performance. To put this strategy into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account, a reliable broker that provides the necessary tools and resources for trading. FAQs What Is ICT Turtle Soup in Trading? ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern that exploits false breakouts. It identifies potential reversals when the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing direction. This strategy aims to take advantage of these liquidity grabs by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction​. How to Identify ICT Turtle Soup Conditions? To identify the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, traders analyse higher timeframe trends to establish market bias. They then look for counter-trend moves and mark internal liquidity areas. The pattern is identified when the price taps these liquidity zones and reverses quickly, often leaving a small wick. This signals a liquidity grab and potential trade setup in the direction of the higher timeframe trend​. How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern? Using the ICT Turtle Soup pattern involves several steps. First, traders establish a market bias based on higher timeframe analysis. Then, they look for liquidity grabs at marked internal liquidity areas, indicating false breakouts. The next step is to confirm the setup on a lower timeframe by observing a similar liquidity grab and structure break. Lastly, they enter trades in the direction of the higher timeframe trend, placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab and targeting key liquidity levels for profit-taking​. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EURJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short! Take a look at our analysis for EURJPY. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 161.281. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 159.582 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
Short Setup Limit order GBPUSD day trade before news👋Hello Traders, Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 timeframe ICT Short setup in GBPUSD for session trade (a couple of Hours) Here is a session trade idea Sell limit order level for reference, TP and SL in pips Cancel limit order before any great news in Forex. For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview. Have a good day! Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
Short
by ICT_Trader_SB
1
#GBPJPY 1DAYGBPJPY Daily Analysis The GBPJPY pair is approaching a significant trendline resistance on the daily chart, suggesting a potential reversal or rejection from this level. This resistance line indicates strong selling pressure, making it a prime area for bearish setups. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Trendline Resistance Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a sell position if the price confirms rejection at the trendline resistance through bearish price action signals, such as bearish engulfing candlesticks or lower highs. Traders should closely watch indicators like RSI for overbought conditions or MACD for signs of weakening bullish momentum. Ensure proper risk management with stop-loss orders placed above the resistance line and profit targets set at nearby support levels.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
NZDUSD H1 Short At Market TP +100 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the H1 chart for NZDUSD today. Price contained withing sliding bear channel previously rejected multiple times from overhead resistance. 🔸Currently expecting price to clear S/R and complete the break of structure pattern near 5820 then dump to 5750 / 5700. 🔸Previously rejected from overhead resistance, sequence of lower highs in progress and expecting yet another rejection into double top and also re-action with the bear channel. 🔸Recommended strategy for NZDUSD traders: short at market now, SL 40 pips TP1 +60 pips TP2 +100 pips final exit at 5750. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
12
Market Analysis: NZD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount Market Analysis: NZD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.57350. Important Takeaways for NZD/USD Analysis Today - NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.5790 resistance zone. - There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5750 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen. NZD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.5790 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.5765 against the US Dollar. The pair settled below the 0.5755 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 0.5735 zone and is currently consolidating losses. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5792 swing high to the 0.5736 low at 0.5750. There is also a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5750. The next resistance is the 0.5765 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5792 swing high to the 0.5736 low. If there is a move above 0.5765, the pair could rise toward 0.5790. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.5810 resistance zone in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.5735 level. The next major support is near the 0.5710 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.5710, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.5665 level. The next key support is near 0.5640. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount Market Analysis: AUD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount AUD/USD declined below the 0.6400 and 0.6375 support levels. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today - The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6400 level against the US Dollar. - There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen. AUD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6430 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6400 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis. The pair even settled below 0.6375 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6340. A low was formed at 0.6317 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6340 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.6375 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low, above which the price could rise toward 0.6385. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6430 resistance. A close above the 0.6430 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6500. On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6320 zone. The next support sits at 0.6350. If there is a downside break below 0.6350, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6320. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6300 support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD (1-Hour Chart) – Three Possible Scenarios I'm here to illustrate three possible scenarios for the future EUR/USD movement on the 1-hour chart. 1. Bearish Continuation Below the Demand Zone (≈1.0460) The price has formed a double bottom near 1.0460, indicating a strong demand level. If the market breaks below this zone, it would suggest that sellers remain in control and the downtrend could continue. 2. Retracement From the Supply Zone (≈1.0630) The supply zone around 1.0630 is acting as a strong resistance level. If the price moves up into this zone and finds significant selling pressure, it may retrace lower. Additionally, the RSI is showing overbought conditions, which supports the idea of a potential pullback from this area. 3. Bullish Breakout Above the Supply Zone (≈1.0630) If the price breaks above the 1.0630 supply zone and shows a clear Change of Character (CHOCH), it could signal a new bullish trend. This would imply that buyers have regained control, pushing the market toward higher levels.
by ClearTradingMind