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Yields Spread Market Crash AstrologyYield spreads tighten and also invert leading into a recession and it is only once they start to de-invert that any sizable decline begins once all the durations have been squeezed and there is nowhere else to run/hide for market participants. The 10Y-03M curve is of particular interest compared to 10Y-02Y, which almost always leads to a crash once that cuts above 0. Current widened spreads suggest there is still time for any black swan event to realize. I would expect long duration to rally in the next 2-3 months to narrow the spread around ~5% range, this can occur with help from TGA refill that's occurring until the end of September. Once at the end of the fall, I think we will see trouble brewing in markets from high rates and short liquidity. Net-net, equities, and all risk assets can float around until late August/September before any major decline can transpire.
TVC:US10Y
by ponzialchemist
US10YHey folks i do hope everything is going well around you ......lets ckeck us10y chart as of now we are seeing bear flag on DXY and double top in us10y bond and bullish flag on Gold chart....based on these all things i conclude we can dare to expect devaluation in Dollar in midterm and increasing price in gold and commodities...... more over please consider we are getting close to election year day by day , and us goverment needs strong economy in election debates..... GOOOOOOD LUUUUUUCK
TVC:US10YShort
by Logical_Markets
US 10Y TREASURY: reversal is still pendingThe market uncertainty of the future course of inflation and FED`s next moves continued during the previous week, especially after the news that Saudi Arabia will continue with its decreased supply of oil by 1 million barrels per month until the end of this year. The price of oil surged on this news, putting the markets back on the negative sentiment. However, Treasury yields did not make a significant reaction to this news, as investors will probably need some more time to digest potential next Fed's move. The 10Y Treasury yields started the week around 4.18% and went back to the level of 4.30%, without a strength to break this level. They are ending the week around 4.26%. Current charts are pointing that there is time for further relaxation in the 10Y Treasury yields. In this sense, the level of 4.0% is still pending to be tested. During the week ahead yields might again revert back toward the levels from the beginning of the week, around 4.2%, with some probability that 4.10% might be reached. A move toward the upside, in terms of 4.30% is unlikely at this moment, at least based on the charts.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10 Year Bond ready for downward moveFor all trade on my Auto Harmonic patterns indicator trade setup - Risky trades can take trade after crossing 23.6% on either side and safe traders can take trade after 41% We can start buying when our Trailing SL hit at 23.6% with SL of recent low our Target will be 41%, 78.6% , 127.2% 161.8% and 223.6 % , when reversal pattern appears on chart we have to trail our SL if trailing SL hit exit from long trade and initiate sell trade ,
TVC:US10Y
by JaiPrakashShuklaHarmonicTrader
Buy the 10 years sometime soon?for the two year to drop rapidly ( BY Powell) there would have to be a black swan event: WW3 GF When the 2 year crosses the 10 year that´s when you need to be paying attention as the market has gone risk off! In times of crisis good to own the 10 year assuming the FED drops rates, Long end rates may go higher maybe 6-7%, but the opportunity will be fleeting and painful.. but eventually it could be worth the pain as the FED then cuts and equities drop.
TVC:US10YLong
by PoPnoStyle
Reversal Bars: Springs and Upthrusts: 4-2 In part one (4-1, linked) we outlined the base characteristics of spring and upthrust patterns. In part two we examine two charts that have the potential to develop the behavior, and describe why they are candidates. The two examples use daily perspective charts but the patterns are fractal and translate well to all time frames. Many popular published strategies center around buying and selling breakouts of prior swing points or patterns and consequently is the first approach that most new technical traders attempt to implement. But failed breakouts are common, and when they fail, they often fail violently. The rapid reversal creates panic among the weak hands who entered in response to the breakout. The panic often results in significant slippage on both entry and exit when poorly placed stops are elected. Early in my trading career I made a concerted effort to trade breakouts. Ultimately the losses convinced me that, despite what the books said, buying and selling initial breakouts was a very bad idea. Eventually I discovered Richard Wyckoff, Richard Shabacker and John Hill and began to understand why. I flipped the script and began to develop trading strategies around failed breakouts (my favorite trades) and that entered into legitimate breakouts only after the breakout was confirmed. Since my trading style is not constrained, I can cycle through hundreds of charts (equity, income, commodities) and time frames looking for setups and situations that fit my pre-established risk-reward parameters. Just as it is “always five o'clock somewhere,” there is also always a trade setup somewhere. You just need to put forth the effort to find it. As I cycle through the charts that I trade, I simply monitor for markets that, after extended trends, are testing a prior high or low, or that have developed a trading range in the vicinity of an important high or low. In other words, markets that are at critical junctures in their trend where the short-term behaviors are more likely to generate signal as opposed to noise. I am also cognizant of momentum divergences, countable threes, channels, sentiment and other nonprimary factors that might strengthen my view or influence the size of the trade. Those markets go on my "list" and I begin actively monitoring them for behavior. Note that I often monitor in one perspective lower (IE from daily to hourly) than the perspective I am trading. 10-year Treasuries and the Citi equity charts offer solid examples of charts that would go on my watch list. One final point: In my work, market behavior is much more important to trading than my fundamental opinion. This is particularly at potential trend inflection points in daily, weekly, and monthly perspectives. Don't get me wrong, I dig it when both my fundamental and technical reads are in sync, but I typically default specific trades to behavior rather than outlook, particularly in the daily and lower perspectives. The U.S. ten-year Treasury offers a good example of a market that would go on my list. It has described a long uptrend (in yield), there are multiple momentum divergences, the bigger pattern has unfolded in three distinct advances (labeled 1X, 2X & 3X), rates are in a seasonally bullish (rates falling) period. The news/sentiment around rates is almost uniformly bearish. Note that the market briefly traded above the prior pivot (by 2 basis points) and then traded modestly lower. The small failure generated some selling, but the weakness has not developed the kind of follow-through (for instance a break of the uptrend along the lows of the test) that would convince me the testing process was complete. Additionally, while I maintain the view that the long-term trend in rates has changed and that over time, they will be generally higher, there are several fundamental relationships that I monitor that may make it possible for rates to fall for several weeks/months before rising next year. CITI Daily and Weekly: Citi is also on my watch list. Following a long decline (see weekly) and after absorbing the supply along the downtrend line via a lateral trading range, it has now retreated into a good support zone and is quite oversold. Because of the trading range dynamics, it’s my suspicion is that it will move closer to 32 before producing a tradable spring. However, I am open to the idea that this smaller range may present a terminal spring and will be alert for setups to take advantage if it does so. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
8
50DMA and TBILLS indicating when bear market hitsHere's a closer look at a highly reliable cyclical bear market indicator. Over the past two decades, it has consistently proven itself as a trusted signal, often aligning with yield curve inversions. In contrast to employing trendlines and breakouts for precision, this chart relies on moving averages. These moving averages function in a similar manner to channels, as they calculate the mean, much like a channel does in various aspects. When there's a breakdown from this mean, it typically signifies a significant loss of support. From a fundamental perspective, this shift suggests that the market is heading towards a risk-off sentiment, leading investors towards products such as TLT due to their appealing pricing in comparison to stock valuations. The divergence we're witnessing appears unlike any we've encountered before. To return to the mean, it would require either a prolonged consolidation at higher levels for many months or a sudden and sharp downturn. I have my own theories on how such a downturn might occur, possibly triggered by an event akin to a cyber attack on financial systems, similar to the disruption caused by the COVID pandemic. However, that's a discussion for another day. In this scenario, our focus should be on reacting to developments rather than attempting to predict them. Currently, the most crucial level to monitor is a potential retest of the 4100 range on the SPX, coupled with how the yield curve reacts when it approaches its initial resistance. If a breakout occurs in these areas, it could signify an increasingly uncertain market environment. For a more detailed analysis, please refer to the chart below, which provides insights into the points I've discussed.
TVC:US03MY
by EdwinPus
This chart pattern suggests yields are going higherUS10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow. But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation. Granted, there are one or two of those engulfing candles that do not fit the exact description (as an open or close is out be a few ticks, meaning it has not truly engulfed). But we've relaxed the rules to note bullish candles that show clear range expansion over the prior candle. And if that pattern persists, it looks like the 10-year yield (and likely yields across the curve) are at least going to make an attempt to retest or break their cycle highs.
TVC:US10YLong
by CityIndex