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2024 US Recession | Key Factors2000 DOT-COM CRISIS The dot-com crisis, also known as the "dot-com bubble" or "dot-com crash," was a period of economic turbulence that affected the technology and telecommunications sectors in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Here are some key points: Euphoria Phase: In the 1990s, there was a boom in the technology and dot-com industry fueled by irrational investor euphoria. Many companies secured significant funding, even if they had weak or nonexistent business models. Excessive Valuations: Valuations of technology companies skyrocketed, often based on exaggerated growth projections and unrealistic expectations. This led to rampant speculation in financial markets. Bubble and Collapse: In 2000, the dot-com bubble began to burst. Many investors realized that numerous technology companies were unable to generate profits in the short term. This triggered a massive sell-off of stocks and a collapse in tech stock prices. Economic Impacts: The crisis had widespread economic impacts, with the loss of value in many technology stocks and the bankruptcy of numerous companies. Investors suffered heavy losses, and this had repercussions on the entire stock market. Economic Lessons: The dot-com crisis led to a reassessment of investment practices and taught lessons about the importance of carefully analyzing companies' fundamentals and avoiding investments based solely on speculative expectations. Following this crisis, the technology sector experienced a correction but also contributed to shaping the industry in a more sustainable way. Many companies that survived the crisis implemented more realistic and sustainable strategies, contributing to the subsequent growth and development of the technology sector. 2007-2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS The 2007-2008 financial crisis was a widespread event that had a significant impact on the global economy. Here are some key points: Origins in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: The crisis originated in the U.S. real estate sector, particularly in subprime mortgages (high-risk). An increase in mortgage defaults led to severe losses for financial institutions holding securities tied to these loans. Spread of Financial Problems: Losses in the mortgage sector spread globally, involving international financial institutions. Lack of transparency in complex financial products contributed to the crisis's diffusion. Bank Failures and Government Bailouts: Several major financial institutions either failed or were on the brink of failure. Government interventions, including bailouts and nationalizations, were necessary to prevent the collapse of the financial system. Stock Market Crashes: Global stock markets experienced significant crashes. Investors lost confidence in financial institutions, leading to a flight from risk and an economic contraction. Impact on the Real Economy: The financial crisis directly impacted the real economy. The ensuing global recession resulted in the loss of millions of jobs, decreased industrial production, and a contraction in consumer spending. Financial Sector Reforms: The crisis prompted a reevaluation of financial regulations. In response, many nations implemented reforms to enhance financial oversight and mitigate systemic risks. Lessons Learned: The financial crisis underscored the need for more effective risk management, increased transparency in financial markets, and better monitoring of financial institutions. The 2007-2008 financial crisis had a lasting impact on the approach to economic and financial policies, leading to greater awareness of systemic risks and the adoption of measures to prevent future crises. 2019 PRE COVID In 2019, I closely observed a significant event in the financial markets: the inversion of the yield curve, with 3-month yields surpassing those at 2, 5, and 10 years. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is generally considered an advanced signal of a potential economic recession and has often been linked to various financial crises in the past. The inversion of the yield curve occurred when short-term government bond yields, such as those at 3 months, exceeded those at long-term, like 2, 5, and 10 years. This situation raised concerns among investors and analysts, as historically, similar inversions have been followed by periods of economic contraction. Subsequently, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, originating in late 2019 in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The virus was identified as a new strain of coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2. The global spread of the virus was rapid throughout 2020, causing a worldwide pandemic. Countries worldwide implemented lockdown and social distancing measures to contain the virus's spread. The economic impact of the pandemic was significant globally, with sectors such as tourism, aviation, and hospitality particularly affected, leading to business closures and job losses. Efforts to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 were intense, and in 2020, several vaccines were approved, contributing to efforts to contain the virus's spread. In 2021, the Delta variant of the virus emerged as a highly transmissible variant, leading to new increases in cases in many regions worldwide. Subsequent variants continued to impact pandemic management. Government and health authorities' responses varied from country to country, with measures ranging from lockdowns and mass vaccinations to specific crisis management strategies. The pandemic highlighted the need for international cooperation, robust healthcare systems, and global preparedness to address future pandemics. In summary, the observation of the yield curve inversion in 2019 served as a predictive element, suggesting imminent economic challenges, and the subsequent pandemic confirmed the complexity and interconnectedness of factors influencing global economic health. 2024 Outlook The outlook for 2024 presents significant economic challenges, outlined by a series of critical indicators. At the core of these dynamics are the interest rates, which have reached exceptionally high levels, fueling an atmosphere of uncertainty and impacting access to credit and spending by businesses and consumers. One of the primary concerns is the inversion of the yield curve, manifested between July and September 2022. This phenomenon, often associated with periods of economic recession, has heightened alarm about the stability of the economic environment. The upward break of the 3-month curve compared to the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year curves has raised questions about the future trajectory of the economy. Simultaneously, housing prices in the United States have reached historic highs, raising concerns about a potential real estate bubble. This situation prompts questions about the sustainability of the real estate market and the risks associated with a potential collapse in housing prices. Geopolitical instability further contributes to the complexity of the economic landscape. With ongoing conflicts in Russia, the Red Sea, Palestine, and escalating tensions in Taiwan, investors are compelled to assess the potential impact of these events on global economic stability. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Composite Index, showing an upward trend since December 2021, suggests an increase in financial difficulties among consumers. Similarly, the charge-off rate on credit card loans for all commercial banks, increasing since the first quarter of 2022, reflects growing financial pressure on consumers and the banking sector. In this context, it is essential to adopt a prudent approach based on a detailed analysis of economic and financial data. The ability to adapt to changing market conditions becomes crucial for individuals, businesses, and financial institutions. Continuous monitoring of the evolution of economic and geopolitical indicators will be decisive in understanding and addressing the challenges that 2024 may bring.
TVC:US03MYEducation
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
US 10Y TREASURY: the last call for 4.2%?Although the US equity market was strongly supported during the previous week, where one of the reasons was expectation on forthcoming rate cuts, still, the US 10Y Treasuries reacted in a bit different manner. Yields were testing the level of 4.2%, after successfully breaking the 4.0% level. As per CME's FedWatch tool, traders on the futures market have decreased their expectations for the rate cut in March this year. The percentage dropped from 71% to 53% within a week. This came after the jobless claims were released, which were at its lowest level since 2022. A too strong jobs market might be an indication of increased spending and in this sense, potential for the increased inflation, which might impact Fed's decision to postpone rate cuts for the second quarter of this year. The level of 4.2% will be tested at the beginning of the week ahead. However, there is a relatively low probability that this level might be breached in a week ahead. In this sense, yields might look toward the 4.0% support line to test it once again.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" (...who will win?)Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish impulse with wave 5 formation. Does this bullish pattern meet economic fundamentals over the medium term? ...What is your opinion? -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ...trade with care! 👍 If you think that my analysis is useful, please... "Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers!
TVC:US10YLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
23
US 10Y TREASURY: 4.0% testing is over?The US Treasuries ended the previous year with investors expectations on the forthcoming rate cuts, which was reflected in the Treasury yields which took the downtrend. This year, the 10Y US Treasury benchmark started by testing the $4.0% short resistance level, which ended in a short reversal further to the downside. During the previous week yields were moving within a relatively short range, between levels of 4.0% and 3.9%. Friday’s session ended with modestly lower grounds as investors were digesting the latest US inflation data released for December 2023. As inflation is easing down further in the US, so will the investors' expectations that the Fed might cut rates sooner from the second half of this year. In this sense, the 10Y yields might test lower grounds, where 3.8% currently stands as a next target and support line in technical analysis which is pending testing.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: Bullish long term.The US10Y is being rejected on the 1D MA200 after a HL rebound at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish again (RSI = 42.660, MACD = -0.055, ADX = 36.524), same with the 1W timeframe (RSI = 43.184), so this is still an early buy opportunity for the long term. The 1D RSI patterns among the three bottoms so far are similar and one more pullback to the HL would be ideal for the most comfortable buy entry until the 1D MA50 is crossed. Our target is towards the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4.600%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
1