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Government bonds

US10Y - Can The Upwards Momentum Continue?From the ending of 2023, Yields have been trickling to the upside, regaining the losses made throughout the last quarter of Q4. With this weeks candle attacking buyside liquidity with a strong bullish closure, manipulation to the downside, ideally respecting the short term lows @ 4.183%. 4.532% lowest displacement of the order block is in the cards. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince
US10Y - Sellers, Be Careful!Relative equal highs around the 4.329% level is prone for smart money to liquidate those who placed their stops above recent highs. Stagnent throughout the week but the overall sentiment for yields over the short-term is bearish as a LH was formed, piling shorts to place their stops above recent short term highs as well as yields being bearish 2 weeks in a row, forgiving the fact that this weeks trading has been choppy. I cannot discount the possibility that we could continue to see a selloff into 4.140% before a major pullback with Wednesday and Friday being the most volatile day due to the volume of red folders coming out. Yields bullish projection goes hand-in-hand with Euro's weekly short projection to 1.25180 with a stretch target of 1.23623. Dollar Index will also have the freedom to reprice higher as a weaker Euro generally leads to stronger Dollar. Looking forward to see how this weeks price action plays out as we could be in for some fireworks leading into the ending of this week... Will we sell the short traders a dream by continuing to retrace lower, piling in more shorts (with, of course SL's placed above recent highs) before ripping their eyeballs out or... Sweep through sellside liquidity down at the lowest displacement new week opening gap @ 4.024 enabling bonds to freely move to the upside? My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince
US 10Y TREASURY: testing 4.2%The 10Y US Treasuries finished the first quarter testing 4.2% level. The favorite Fed's inflation gauge, PCE indicator was published on Friday, indicating that the inflation is moving within market expectations. This additionally supported market optimism that the Fed will cut interest rates in June this year, which is currently estimated with 60% chance. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York gathering, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that there is no rush for cutting interest rates. He saw a rationale in keeping interest rates at current levels for longer to help inflation on its "sustainable trajectory toward 2%". Based on current charts, it might be expected that the market will start the week ahead by testing the 4.2% level. At this moment there are no expectations that yields might move below this level. On the opposite side, there is a low probability that yields could move higher to the upside, aside from 4.25% level. Overall, some higher swings in yields should not be expected at this moment.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y - You Could Say Last Weeks Targeting Was OverzealousPlaying safe this week as last weeks projection was stretched to 4.401% but top formed @ 4.348%. Immediate Swing high and low in relation to current price means we are currently in a discount market with last weeks updated projection of 4.19% still up for grabs and macro EQ @ 4.137% also up for debate if the sell programme continues. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
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US 10Y TREASURY: digesting Fed`s narrative Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some relaxation in 10Y Treasury yields, so they moved from 4.34% as a highest weekly level toward the supporting 4.2%. Current question is whether yields are preparing for a move toward levels from the beginning of March, when they were standing at 4.0%? On a long run, they will certainly make this move, however, probably not during the week ahead. The reason is that markets take time to digest all the information received, and then make a decision on a clear move. In this sense, for the week ahead the most probable scenario is that 10Y Treasury yields will take some time to test the 4.2% before they decide for a move toward the lower grounds.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Ten Year Yields: Potential OutcomesThis is the yearly perspective Ten-year Treasury. Note the break of the secular downtrend and the push above the 3.35% pivot. It's worth noting that the MACD oscillator has turned higher for the first time since 1985. The basic definition of an uptrend is a market consistently defining higher highs and higher lows. For instance, a great example of a downtrend can be seen in the annual ten year Treasury chart, where over several decades yields consistently made lower lows and lower highs, defining a very clear and obvious bull market (yields down/prices up). For bonds to begin defining a secular bear (bond prices down/yields up) will require yield to set back from a high pivot, define a higher low pivot, and subsequently make a substantive new high. From that point, tentative annual and monthly trendlines and channel projections can be drawn and Fibonacci and point-and-figure price projections made. Importantly, this structure would define a secular bear and place weekly and monthly momentum in harmony with annual momentum. I fully expect this transition to occur over the next 12-18 months. The biggest question in my mind is whether last October's 4.98% high print marked the terminal point for the bearish structure that has built since the 0.40% low. I suspect that is indeed the case and that by midyear yields will be falling. But there is also a reasonable case for one final push higher, into the stronger resistance zone around 5.25%, before subsequently setting back and defining the higher low. Given this view, the evolution of the weekly chart over the next few months becomes particularly important. Conclusion: The next few weeks should represent a significant juncture in the daily, and potentially the weekly chart. The market has been generally consolidating over the last several months and the breakout of the pattern could be meaningful. For shorter term traders the direction out of the consolidation will likely define the direction of travel into the fall. In other words, it is a go with. If yields do break out higher I am likely to begin selling the breakouts of bear (prices down/yields higher) flags and will view short term declines in yields as selling opportunities. If lower, I will likely be a buyer of bull flags and setups (yields down/prices higher) as they develop. If the market falls away from the trendline with velocity, first solid support there is found in the 3.79% zone. I continue to see a not trivial chance of one last push higher into the 5.25-5.50% zone before beginning a major weekly and monthly perspective correction (yield down/price up) that eventually makes the higher low. And while I see an advantage to being generally bullish over the next few months (falling yields, rising prices), the analysis is tentative with only a small near-term advantage to the trade. In my own trading, I would consider it non-actionable without additional price/volume development or reasonable structure to trade against. In deference to my macro work and business cycle work, I will be a better buyer of bullish inflections in the weekly chart over the next few months as I fully expect a significant economic slowdown to develop into the end of the year. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
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