ABSA - LongOur momentum strategy is showing all of the signs for a long position on JSE:ABG . We are aiming for a target at the 221 level and a stop loss at the 191 level with a 1:2 risk reward ratio
ZAR
Wide turbulent ranges for the ZARReferring back to my long-term idea posted in January (linked below “1H2023 USD/ZAR weekly timeframe”) I believe that the pair has started its 5th impulse wave higher towards the 2020 high around the 19.30’s after the failed break below the critical support rate of 16.80.
The rand has depreciated for five consecutive weeks since mid-January which has seen the local unit slide roughly 7.65%. The economic calendar for this week is a heavy one with a host of local and international events and data prints which is expected to throw the pair into a wide trading range. Locally, SA’s finance minister will present the updated budget tomorrow. The main point of discussion that investors will look out for is Eskom and it is anticipated that the government will advance their plans to take on a sizeable amount of debt from the ailing power utility. The rand also faces a potential grey listing by the FATF this week. Honestly, don’t expect any local factors that will be rand positive anytime soon.
Internationally, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting results will be released which will probably just support the Fed’s recent hawkish sentiment. To wrap up the week, US GDP results for 4Q2022 will be released and on Friday the US PCE price index will be updated, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. It’s difficult to make a call how these data prints will influence investor sentiment.
Despite all the above factors that are undoubtedly rand negative, the rand could pull the pair lower towards the 61.8% Fibo rate of 17.84 if risk-on sentiments flow into the markets following the FOMC minutes, US GDP and PCE data prints. The rand tends to pullback aggressively after an uptrend, it overshoots like a rubber band to the top and bottom side. If this pullback materializes, buying at rates around 17.80 may be favourable. The support levels currently sit on the psychological rate of 18.00, 23.6% Fibo at 17.95 and then the critical support at 17.83 which coincides with the neckline of the broken parallel channel. I’m personally looking to leave buy limit orders between 17.75 and 17.85. A break above 18.28/18.30 will invalidate the expected pullback.
Technically the daily MACD seems to be rolling over and could cross to a sell signal while the RSI is sitting in overbought zones at 67.85 which supports this expected pullback.
Two factors that also support this USD/ZAR pullback is my expected pullback in the DXY and the fact that Platinum is finding support around $920 per oz (ideas linked below).
Bullish Pennant on MTNJSE:MTN price has broken out of a bullish pennant pattern that formed over the last month or so. It seems to have retraced a bit since, so we will have to wait and see if the trade gets triggered.
Catching pullback zonesThe dollar strength following Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls print continued in yesterday’s session which allowed the USDZAR pair to break through the blue 50% Fibo retracement rate of 17.61. The pair seems to have lost some upward momentum after hitting a high of 17.70. The rate of 17.61 will swing from a resistance to a support and a break below it will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the neckline of the updated green parallel channel and lower towards the orange 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.50 (I’ll drop a daily timeframe in the comments for context) and the green 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.46 (support range 1).
Fundamentally there is not much supporting a strong pullback for the rand so the red zone between 17.46 and 17.50 is looking like an attractive buy zone (s1). The January risk-on sentiment was dealt a reality check last week which has seen dollar strengthen across the board and US equity markets are looking poised to pull back from their current overbought zones, which is rand negative. In that breath, it is however not unlikely that we see a deeper pullback into the range between 17.30 and 17.38 (s2).
Technical indicators on the 4H chart is supporting this pullback; the RSI is trending downwards after falling out of the overbought zone and the buy signal of the MACD is losing momentum and may switch to a sell signal if the expected pull back materializes. Regarding our daily indicators, the RSI is still trending higher and the MACD buy signal is still solid.
Looking over at the DXY, the index hit its 50-day MA resistance rate at 103.642 and its technical indicators are also supportive of a pullback for the greenback.
Ascending Triangle breakout and retestOn the 1st of Feb the price on JSE:ABG broke out of the ascending triangle it has been trading in. It has since retreated and gone back into the triangle. It seems as though it is currently retesting the levels at the apex of the triangle. If it breaks through the triangle again, I believe we will be in for a nice long position. The target would be around the 227 level.
Pre-fed 4H USDZARThe upward momentum seems to be fading as we await the open of the US session. The orange 23.6% Fibo retracement at 17.50 is a strong resistance and psychological rate for the pair and I don’t see it giving way before the major Fed event tomorrow. Over the slightly longer term I’m bearish on the rand after the pair broke above the key 50-day MA level at 17.15 and 17.30.
A pullback seems to be on the cards as the 4H RSI is topping out just under the overbought zone and the buy signal on the MACD is losing momentum. The pullback will likely see the pair slide into the range between the green 38.2% Fibo retracement rate at 17.18 and the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate at 17.30. The rate at 17.30 will also swing from a previous resistance to a support. (I’m personally planning to leave a few buy limit orders scattered in this range). Given all the market moving data releases and Central bank announcements I suspect we could see the rand weaken towards the range between 17.60 and 17.70. A break above this resistance range will allow the pair to climb higher towards the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.84.
(I'll drop the daily timeframe chart in the comments below for context regarding the Fibo retracements levels I'm using)
Also see attached my idea for the DXY as we prepare for Fed week!
Short triggeredA short position has triggered on JSE:AGL based off of the signals from the stochastic, MACD and EMA cross.
We are looking at a target at around the 619 level.
Short triggered on ANGA short has been triggered on JSE:ANG based off our momentum strategy. we expect it to reach the target at the 317 area.
OMU - Ascending Triangle BreakoutJSE:OMU has broken out of an ascending triangle that has been forming since late Nov 2022. If it continues up, the trade will be triggered with a target around 1375.
GLN - Short looking goodThe bearish engulfing on JSE:GLN seems to be playing out quite well so far. Along with that, the stochastic and MACD have both turned downwards, so once the EMA's cross in a downward direction, the momentum strategy will also be triggering and alert on this one.
ARI - Short alertJSE:ARI is showing all of the signs for a possible short position based on our momentum strategy. If it continues downward, the trade will be triggered and we will be looking at a target around the 250 level.
USD ZAR | DECRYPTERS | FORECAST |SIGNALHi people welcome to Team Decrypters
We are expecting sell limit of ours to play for 60-100 pips atleast rest details are on the chart
USDZAR - Short PotentialVELOCITY:USDZAR is showing signs that it might be heading downwards. Although none of our indicators have crossed just yet, if the price action continues downwards we could be looking at a nice downward move. I have set the take profit to 1:2 Risk to Reward. I think that is pretty aspirational, so if the trade is triggered, I will monitor it and adjust the stop loss accordingly.
USDZAR Up or down ? Please do not use these as trading signals
What do you think is it going up or down ?
I still think the $dollar is going to crash hard
50-day MA brokeThe pair broke to the upside of the 50-day MA yesterday despite minimal loses in the DXY which shows that the move was largely based off rand weakness, yesterday. The 50-day MA will swing from a resistance to a support rate and I'm looking to catch a buy entry off the re-test of the 50-day MA, currently at 17.15. Short-term take profit zone between the 38.2% fibo at 17.40 and 17.50. (See my attached longer-term ideas)
MTN position triggeredIt took a while, but the long position on JSE:MTN was finally triggered with yesterday's price action. Today's move is looking good for a continuation to the upside. Target at the 146 level
VOD - Long position triggeredJSE:VOD has triggered a long position. This is based off of the stochastic, MACD and EMA's crossing upwards. We are looking at a target at the highs from the end of July 2022.
EURZAR SHOWING WEAKNESSforming Ascending Channel In daily Tf And Got Rejected From Channel Resistance
Rsi Printed Bearish Dirvergence
Wait For Macd Crossover To Enter
Expecting Lower Channel Line To Be tested Incase Of Breakout Will Crash Further
GBPZAR - Fume Indecision - Nice but Unexpected! South Africa BB!Fibs gartley dailies monthlies.. At the end of the day - have you seen South Africa? Beautiful Country!
AGL going shortbased off of the turning downwards of the stochastic and MACD as well as the downward crossing of the EMA's, it looks like we could see a downward move for JSE:AGL
ARI - ShortJSE:ARI is showing all of the signs for a good short position. If it breaks below yesterday's lows, the short will be triggered.
