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Canadian banks offer high-yielding cushion in a correction.If you're worried that growth stocks (the tech and now healthcare stocks) are just ridiculously valued, then perhaps you should think about Canadian bank stocks as a potential cushion against a potential market correction. Earnings beat analyst expectations. Yields are in excess of 4%. Loan loss provisions will gradually find their way back into bank earnings as the economy recovers next year. The steepening yield curve also bodes well for future earnings growth.
NYSE:BMOLong
by malvinspooner
A "surge" in yieldsWord on the street is that real rates are surging. SURGING, I tell you!! The financial press gets caught up in the moment, swept along in the excitement, elation, and fear of any directional market move. During such times, it is especially valuable to step back, look at the bigger picture, and ascertain if the long-term prevailing trend is at risk of a breakout or reversal. Take the US 10-year yield: Looking at a monthly chart, we see 40 years of a very clear downward trend. That "surge"? Well, look for yourself. Barring something as extreme as China throwing a firesale on US paper, I expect this trend to continue for quite a while longer. There is a lower bound to yields, but that bound is continually being pushed lower as rates are cut, other central banks foray into negative rates, and investors/funds begin seeking the 'least-worst' store of value. This demand shift pushing the lower bound lower is what has formed the lower bound of the downward trend channel on the chart. I'm dubious about this 'reflation trade' story: The search for yield, and even simply 'least-worst' store of value is the prevailing force in this market. US treasury yields can only outperform so far in the broader market of debt instruments before they attract more buyers. Negative rates in other nations have intensified this effect. This behavior forms the upper bound of our downward trend channel. Perhaps we'll see by the end of December if this "surge" is an actual SURGE. For myself, I will be respecting the strength of this 40 year trend, and expecting any strong upward move in yields to only tag the upper bound of the channel, (if even that far), before reversing to the downside.
TVC:US10Y
by iamroot
3
SUSHI - LONG, Slowly Climbing BackUNI farming will end soon (at Nov 17) and sushi looks like a hot buy again, flipped the first S/R at $1.3 it seems. It's not just a farm anymore, it has stable yielding cashflows (sushiswap fees, xsushi stacking), constantly rising TVL and future products (Bentobox (Margin trading any alt pairs), Gusoku, MISO). I'm long from $1.19 avg, targeting $2.0. Let's see how it plays out. Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research. Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thanks!
Long
by Bitduke
Bond Yields point to recession....or this time it's different?The 10y-2y bond yields are important because it is the long-short of market expectations; that is, how people view the near-term market vs. their perceived evolution of the market (that also anticipates the FOMC's likely reaction. It's several signals in one). The 10y2ys (blue) is the 10 year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.96%) Minus the 2-Year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.19%). The higher the number (and greater the difference), the more people value long-term certainty over the short-term unknown. Currently, the 10y-2y is at 0.8 and rising which last happened in December 2007, April 2001, December 1990, July 1986, October 1971... you get it. It's a reliable indicator, and in the past, a negative 10-2 spread has predicted every recession from 1955 to 2018 (SOURCE) , but has occurred 6-24 months before the recession occurring. The last time it went negative was in August 2019. THE ANALYSIS Notice that we're approaching a golden cross (yellow 50ema crossing the white 200ema). The last time this happened was January 2008, and May 2001. I've overlaid the S&P- you can see it's crashed. So is this a new paradigm of monetary policy? Or does nothing change? Is this time really different? Here's the historical US Yield Curve source. MORE ABOUT THE YIELD CURVE Bond prices and yields move inversely of each other. When bond prices go up yields go down, and vice versa. The reason that lower yields in the long term are a indicator for the economy is because longer term bonds are seen as safe investments meant for preserving wealth; while stocks, forex, and derivatives are riskier and used for growing wealth. When investors have a good outlook on the economy, they will sell their long term bonds and put that money into the riskier investments listed above. This flight from longer term bonds to riskier investments causes demand for the longer term bonds to fall, causing bond prices to fall ,and yields to increase. In times of bad economic outlook, people will start moving their money from stocks into the longer term bonds as a way to protect themselves from potential future downturns. This flight from stocks to longer term bonds causes demand to increase, causing bond prices to increase, and yields to go down. The change in bond yields is based on bond price, which is based on supply and demand. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: The 10-2 spread reached a high of 2.91% in 2011, and went as low as -2.41% in 1980. During recession, central banks lower rates pushing down the i.r. curve. When the spread starts contracting, market expects a coming cut of the i.r. and a future lower curve. For this reason, real world curves (vs academic ones) are decreasing on the long terms: a kind of economic cycle is implied. You may also read the spread under a credit risk point of view: a tight spread means "if an issuer can survive 2y, it is very likely that it will survive also 10y therefore a small extra premium is required". This is very clean in distressed bond issuers: implied yields usually form a reversed term structured (decreasing like an hyperbola). See more:
TVC:US10YShort
by TMoneyBidness
2
Bond Yields point to recession....or this time it's different?The 10y-2y bond yields are important because it is the long-short of market expectations; that is, how people view the near-term market vs. their perceived evolution of the market (that also anticipates the FOMC's likely reaction. It's several signals in one). The 10y2ys (blue) is the 10 year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.96%) Minus the 2-Year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.19%). When the spread increases, it means there's falling demand for long-term Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher risk, higher reward investments. Investors think interest rates will now rise in the short term. Currently, the 10y-2y is at 0.8 and rising which last happened in December 2007, April 2001, December 1990, July 1986, October 1971... you get it. It's a reliable indicator, and in the past, a negative 10-2 spread has predicted every recession from 1955 to 2018 (SOURCE), but has occurred 6-24 months before the recession occurring. The last time it went negative was in August 2019. THE ANALYSIS Notice that we're approaching a golden cross (yellow 50ema crossing the white 200ema). The last time this happened was January 2008, and May 2001. I've overlaid the S&P- you can see it's crashed. So is this a new paradigm of monetary policy? Or does nothing change? Is this time really different? Here's the historical US Yield Curve source. MORE ABOUT THE YIELD CURVE Bond prices and yields move inversely of each other. When bond prices go up yields go down, and vice versa. The reason that lower yields in the long term are a indicator for the economy is because longer term bonds are seen as safe investments meant for preserving wealth; while stocks, forex, and derivatives are riskier and used for growing wealth. When investors have a good outlook on the economy, they will sell their long term bonds and put that money into the riskier investments listed above. This flight from longer term bonds to riskier investments causes demand for the longer term bonds to fall, causing bond prices to fall ,and yields to increase. In times of bad economic outlook, people will start moving their money from stocks into the longer term bonds as a way to protect themselves from potential future downturns. This flight from stocks to longer term bonds causes demand to increase, causing bond prices to increase, and yields to go down. The change in bond yields is based on bond price, which is based on supply and demand . HISTORICAL CONTEXT: The 10-2 spread reached a high of 2.91% in 2011, and went as low as -2.41% in 1980. During recession, central banks lower rates pushing down the i.r. curve. When the spread starts contracting, market expects a coming cut of the i.r. and a future lower curve. For this reason, real world curves (vs academic ones) are decreasing on the long terms: a kind of economic cycle is implied. You may also read the spread under a credit risk point of view: a tight spread means "if an issuer can survive 2y, it is very likely that it will survive also 10y therefore a small extra premium is required". This is very clean in distressed bond issuers: implied yields usually form a reversed term structured (decreasing like an hyperbola). See more:
TVC:US10YLong
by TMoneyBidness
54
LONG AAVE/USDT on breakout of downtrend!LONG AAVE/USDT on breakout of downtrend! Aave is an open-source and non-custodial protocol to earn interest on deposits and borrow assets with a variable or stable interest rate. It also enables ultra-short duration, uncollateralized flash loans designed to be integrated into other products and services. Aave began as ETHLend in 2017 after it raised $16.2 million in an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) to create a decentralized lending platform. Later, they announced a parent company, Aave, which would house multiple different products including EthLend, Aave Lending, Aave Pocket, Aave Custody, Aave Clearing, and Aave gaming.
Long
by HodlTradeCrypto
4
KAVA - Retesting Key Support, Quick 20%+ likely!KAVA has been crashing around it's key support for a few weeks now, in a declining triangle; which as we've seen can go either way. As we've seen with the last two bounces, we're likely to hit up from where we're at now to the upper resistance line. RSI is ripe for reversal MACD has shrinking bearish deviation and is heading to bull cross volume has been dropping over the sell EMA's 100& 50 are both by the upper resistance line, We just went below EMA 200, which has been a pivot line 3 times in the last month and a half. Should be pretty clean; set your stop loss below the support level , if it goes south it'll be a hefty decline. There's a chance we'll move up to the green demand zone as we have been ranging here for a good while. But safe bet is catch the upper trend-line as TP. -- I'm a guy that you don't know posting his ideas on the internet for the sake of improving as a human being. If you take this as financial advice, that's on you. If you like my analysis, then leave a like and feel free to follow for more free content. Feedback, criticism and crude humor are welcome :)
Long
by cryptosince1963
2
YFII Again Rejected By Resistance | Was It A Bull Trap ???Hey friends, hope you are well and welcome to the new update on YFII token. Previously the price action broke down the support of the pennant on daily chart. But in a very next candlestick we can observe a powerful buying volume therefore while re-testing the previous support as resistance the price action of DFI.Money re-entered in pennant. Finally the price action of YFII token also broke out the resistance of this pennant. But the priceline is still below the exponential moving averages with the time period of 10 and 21. For confirmation of the change in trend from down to upside we need crossing above these EMAs 10 and 21 and a bull cross between these EMAs as well. In my previous post we have seen that on small time period 4-hour chart the priceline of YFII token broke down all simple moving averages with the time period of 25, 50, 100 and 200 and there was a big distance between all these moving averages and the candlesticks. At the moment the price action is again breaking out the 25 SMA and soon it can also breakout the other simple moving averages as well. For complete trend change from down to up we need the closing above all these SMAs. On daily chart the price line is also completing final leg of bullish Butterfly. But the priceline cannot complete this leg because if we see the trader’s interest as per volume profile of complete price action of this butterfly. Then it can be clearly observe that trader’s has no interest to trade below $800 and this can be last support as well. The priceline has also a very strong resistance at $2600. In my previous article I also mentioned this resistance and now the priceline is rejected by this resistance. So the previous short rally to the upside worked as a bull trap for many traders. However the priceline is moving with the pivot 1st support and point of control of the volume profile. Conclusion: The priceline is moving with pivot 1st support and point of control of volume profile therefore is the priceline would be moving here sideways and in the meanwhile if it will cross up the EMA 10 and 21 on daily chart and simple moving average 200 on 4 hour chart. Then it can be possible that the trend will be completely changed from down to up side. And if the volume profile will start showing interest of traders below the $800 level in coming days then more drop can be possible as well.
by moon333
2
BNB - Renewed Life? Nearing buy for 70%+ potential?BNB is Binance's native coin. A useful coin as it is used for a variety of transactions on Binance, and allows traders lower trading fees by using it for fees, as well as yield options. I've had a love hate relationship with this coin in the external world: On one hand, it's uses on what is essentially the most popular exchange has meant constant demand. On the other hand, it's directly tied to an exchange; and as history has told us, these seemingly mighty titans can be felled relatively quickly. Recently it's seen a huge uptick following the September dump, largely driven by it's inclusion in various liquidity farming pools. Big returns, allegedly minimal risk! Allegedly . Taking a look at the chart, I think there's some potential here. Since the June '19 ATH, we've seen a bearish downward channel turn into a rather bullish upward channel. Higher highs, higher lows, rather consistently strong MACD. It's the things you want to see. EMA 100 is a very important trendline on the BNB daily chart. We can see the price basically play around it: Above it, 100 becomes support and the price is bullish. Below it, 100 becomes resistance the we see bearish movement. Currently we are above it with a recent test bringing aggressive price rebounding. MACD is showing decently bearish at the moment, can assume further drops in the short term as historically the bearish MACD trends take a few days to play out with BNB Stoch is bottoming out. Historically it doesn't hang out here long at all, with abrupt up shifts being the norm recently. If we stay above this line consistently, without regular testing , I think bullish action in general can be assumed for BNB . Also, notice support & resistance levels have been falling in line with fib levels often, with the current support being at .5 fib, almost scarily on the nose. Like wise peaks fall on the fib. This can tell us ALOT about how the general market is reading the chart and setting their levels. BUYING IN? We're close. If the long term ascending channel holds we'll likely have a good opportunity to buy soon. Short term we're facing a bit of a resistance wall since the last peak, a break through this could signal movement upward. My buy zone is from 22.30 down to around .382 fib or 19.11 in the cases of a total market breakdown. Don't see it falling below this point, as that would take it well beyond previous lows and completely break the bullish upward channel it's been on. Definitely stop loss territory. BUYIN: 22.20 down to 18.00 TP's: (based on previous highs, and fib levels) #1 - 27.05 #2 - 32.70 #3 - 39.90 SL: 15-20% MAX If all else fails, we stick em in a yield pool and pray that boat isn't headed to the proverbial waterfall. Am I joking or not? Your call! “On the highest throne in the world, we still sit only on our own bottom.” - Michel de Montaigne I'm a guy that you don't know posting his ideas on the internet for the sake of improving as a human being. If you take this as financial advice, that's on you. Feedback, criticism and crude humor are welcome :)
Long
by cryptosince1963
7
RidetheMacro| US-10 Year Treasury Yield | 40 years Outlook📌 Treasury yields move higher ahead of Fed speeches. U.S. government debt prices fell on Friday morning as investors monitored rising cases of coronavirus and polls ahead of the U.S. election. the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose above 📈 1% to trade at 0.6904%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond increased 📈 by about 78 basis points to trade at 1.4375%. Yields move inversely to prices. US-10 Year Treasury Yield - 40 Years in Review 📍 Many of still remember the collapse of the U.S. housing market in 2006 and the ensuing financial crisis that wreaked havoc on the U.S. and around the world. Financial crises are, unfortunately, quite common in history and often cause economic tsunamis in affected economies. ⬇️ Below I explain some Major Financial Crisis. 📍 1981 Volcker Fund Rate Increase Paul Volcker was Chair of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. In 1980, the Volcker Shock raised the fed funds rate to its highest point in history to end double-digit inflation. That extreme and prolonged interest rate rise was called the Volcker Shock. It did end inflation 📍 The Credit Crisis of 1772 This crisis originated in London and quickly spread to the rest of Europe. In the mid-1760s the British 🇬🇧 Empire had accumulated an enormous amount of wealth through its colonial possessions and trade. This created an aura of over optimism and a period of rapid credit expansion by many British banks 🏦. The hype came to an abrupt end on June 8, 1772, when Alexander Fordyce—one of the partners of the British banking house Neal, James, Fordyce, and Down—fled to France to escape his debt repayments. The news quickly spread and triggered a banking panic in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, as creditors began to form long lines in front of British banks to demand instant cash withdrawals. The ensuing crisis rapidly spread to Scotland, the Netherlands, other parts of Europe, and the British 🇬🇧 American colonies. Historians have claimed that the economic repercussions of this crisis were one of the major contributing factors to the Boston Tea Party protests and the American Revolution. 📍 The Great Depression of 1929–39 This was the worst financial and economic disaster of the 20th century. Many believe that the Great Depression was triggered by the Wall Street crash of 1929 and later exacerbated by the poor policy decisions of the U.S. government 🇺🇸. The Depression lasted almost 10 years and resulted in massive loss of income, record unemployment rates, and output loss, especially in industrialized nations. In the United States the unemployment rate hit almost 25 percent at the peak of the crisis in 1933. 📍 The OPEC Oil Price Shock of 1973 This crisis began when OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) member countries—primarily consisting of Arab nations—decided to retaliate against the United States in response to its sending arms supplies to Israel during the Fourth Arab–Israeli War. OPEC countries declared an oil embargo, abruptly halting oil exports to the United States and its allies. This caused major oil shortages and a severe spike in oil prices and led to an economic crisis in the U.S 🇺🇸. and many other developed countries. What was unique about the ensuing crisis was the simultaneous occurrence of very high inflation (triggered by the spike in energy prices) and economic stagnation (due to the economic crisis). As a result, economists named the era a period of “stagflation” (stagnation plus inflation), and it took several years for output to recover and inflation to fall to its pre crisis levels. 📍 The Asian Crisis of 1997 This crisis originated in Thailand in 1997 and quickly spread to the rest of East Asia and its trading partners. Speculative capital flows from developed countries to the East Asian economies of Thailand 🇹🇭, Indonesia 🇮🇩, Malaysia 🇲🇾, Singapore 🇸🇬, Hong Kong 🇭🇰, and South Korea 🇰🇷 (known then as the “Asian tigers”) had triggered an era of optimism that resulted in an overextension of credit and too much debt accumulation in those economies. In July 1997 the Thai government had to abandon its fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar 💲 that it had maintained for so long, citing a lack of foreign currency resources. That started a wave of panic across Asian financial markets and quickly led to the widespread reversal of billions of dollars of foreign investment. As the panic unfurled in the markets and investors grew wary of possible bankruptcies of East Asian governments, fears of a worldwide financial meltdown began to spread. It took years for things to return to normal. The International Monetary Fund had to step in to create bailout packages for the most-affected economies to help those countries avoid default. 📍 The dotcom bubble The dotcom bubble, also known as the internet bubble, was a rapid rise in U.S. technology stock equity valuations fueled by investments in internet-based companies during the bull market in the late 1990s. During the dotcom bubble, the value of equity markets grew exponentially, with the technology-dominated Nasdaq index rising from under 1,000 to more than 5,000 between the years 1995 and 2000. In 2001 and through 2002 the bubble burst, with equities entering a bear market. The crash that followed saw the Nasdaq index, which had risen five-fold between 1995 and 2000, tumble from a peak of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, to 1,139.90 on Oct 4, 2002, a 76.81% fall. By the end of 2001, most dotcom stocks had gone bust. Even the share prices of blue-chip technology stocks like Cisco, Intel and Oracle lost more than 80% of their value. It would take 15 years for the Nasdaq to regain its dotcom peak, which it did on April 23, 2015. 📍 The Financial Crisis of 2007–08 This sparked the Great Recession, the most-severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, and it wreaked havoc in financial markets around the world. Triggered by the collapse of the housing bubble in the U.S., the crisis resulted in the collapse of Lehman Brothers (one of the biggest investment banks 🏦in the world), brought many key financial institutions and businesses to the brink of collapse, and required government bailouts of unprecedented proportions. It took almost a decade for things to return to normal, wiping away millions of jobs and billions of dollars of income along the way.
TVC:US10YLong
by Ridethemacro
2