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Yesbank

(India) YES BANK - Long Term Buy (at Rs.185)Recommending YES BANK as a long term buy, at around 180-185 levels. YES Bank is one of the TOP-5 private sector banks in India, along with others like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, KOTAK etc. Its loan book, NPAs, OPM, PAT numbers etc. are in line with other top private banks (as it should be), but the recent sharp sell-off (due to CEO's resignation & slight IL&FS exposure), might have created a LT buying opportunity. SCALE: Has a loan book of ~ Rs. 2.1 Lac Cr (deposits & advances each). PROFITABILITY: Net Profit YE Mar 2018 = Rs. 42Bn (TTM upto Nov2018 ~ Rs. 45B) MARKET CAP: Rs. 444Bn (@ CMP Rs. 192.5) ... as of Nov2018 P/E Ratio: 10x (444B / 45B) .... which is very low compared to 25-30x of other large Private Banks. SELL-OFF: There was a sharp sell-off in YES BANK from Aug-Oct 2018, with shares dropping from 393 to 184 (-53%). RBI asked YES BANK chairman to step down, due to some discrepancy in NPA reporting. Additionally, in the last earnings call they reported Rs.2600Cr exposure to IL&FS (which even if considered zero/written-off), is just 1% of the total deposits (Rs. 2.1LacCr). So, structurally I do not see these things impacting the long term profitability, AND/OR much of it is discounted in the 50% price drop (& valuation / PE contraction from 21x to 10x annual earnings). So, recommending a buy around 180-185 level (vs. CMP 192). Doubling of the PPS from here (PE doubling 10x to 20x) would roughly put it in line with the remaining Private sector banks. Timeline - long term. CAVEAT 1: Technically, if it closes below 185 on a closing basis ... do average out. And, get back in if it recovers. OR, Average-in more at the next support (around Rs. 132). CAVEAT2: Investing in INDIVIDUAL stocks is always tricky, because of the unknown future news, & can be highly VOLATILE. So be prepared to average in more if a stock drops 50% from your initial purchase, and even more on further drop, etc, before giving up. Otherwise, vs. individual stocks ... consider investing in the top ETFs (NIFTY 50, or NIFTY NEXT 50) for a well diversified approach to Long Term investing (for a steady growth with the GDP & economy).
NSE:YESBANKLong
by Ponty
Nifty : Brexit Gone : Now What : LongFed Hike -- Fed did not changed their stance on rate hike i.e. status quo !! After Brexit it is more likely that there wont be any further news till sept for further rate hikes !! Brexit -- Is it Good ...Is is bad .... we don't know !! This Event is now gone !! Many are comparing this event to lehman brother 2008 crisis, Acc to us their imports have got little bit cheaper and travelling to Britain got cheaper. Coming Back to India : GST - Looks set to pass, if it does'nt then we do have a serious problem, Monsoon will be above average as predicted by the Met Depts, thanks to La Nina we might have extended monsoon this year. Now What about Nifty : Too much of negativity with regards to brexit, many of the technical analyst have turned bearish. Has Nifty breached any major technical level on downside -- No .... Nifty as said earlier has broken its downward sloping channel and has bounced back from it in end of May 16. We think major Wave 5 is in play -- i.e. wave 3 of wave 3 of major wave 5 !! Yesterday correction fits into an abc correction of wave 2 of wave 3 !! Strategy: Let the expiry be over this thursday and see where Nifty ends !! We believe 7935 is now the immediate support which might not be easily broken !! Its Buy the Dips Market !! Stocks List : 1. AxisBank 2. YesBank 3. HDFCBank 4. TCS 5. Ioc 6. Gati 7. ALBK 8. And Gold
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AnbHfund