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SPDR Sectors Rolling Down as Anomaly Event Sets UpSPDR sectors appear to be forming a Head-n-shoulders pattern after the US elections. It appears the markets are stalling into a congestion phase - possibly leading to my Anomaly breakdown event. This video will help you understand how the financial and real estate sectors could collapse to deflate the current market trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:XLFShort
by BradMatheny
Update: GOLD, SILVER, NVDA, SPDR Sectors, SPY, QQQ & MoreThe markets are really struggling this morning. The strong selling after the open is likely an indication traders are not buying into the hype right now. NVDA earnings hit and drove the markets a bit higher into the open. I see this selling pressure as a BIG SHIFT into my Anomaly Event. Gold & Silver are reacting to the downside. SPTD sectors, particularly XLE (Energy) is still showing strong upward trends - while many of the others have already started to move downward. I'm watching XLF and XLRE for a breakdown event. The SPY & QQQ are showing broad weakness right now. Prepare for my Price Anomaly Event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:SI1!Short
by BradMatheny
4
Index struggles at Fibonacci resistance amid concerns.The index appears unable to break through its Fibonacci resistance, which is expected given the prolonged impulsive trend and upcoming elections, alongside rising 'no landing' fears. Earnings reports are solid, and with financials (XLF) looking strong, I'm not concerned. The financial sector often serves as a leading indicator for the broader index, so I view the current 2-3 week stagnation as normal. I still see the biggest opportunity in the AI narrative, and will look to buy during pullbacks.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Tolgaun6
Are financials topping here? Financials have been one of the leading and strongest sectors on the back of rate cut narratives. The resilience and strength can easily be observed... XLF has been making new highs despite the QQQ & SPY not. Now it begs the question; is all the rate cut priced in? We think financials are set for some downward rotation. If this rotation occurs it opens up many other opportunities as financials do carry some decent weight in the indices. Today names like JPM & XLF gave us a potential daily topping tail.
AMEX:XLF
by Trading-Capital
US Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings SeasonUS Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings Season Company earnings reports for the second quarter will be a crucial driver of stock market movements in the coming weeks. Traditionally, the largest banks kick off the earnings season, and their performance indicators today are setting a bullish tone. For example: Bank of America (BAC), report published on 16th July: → Earnings per share: actual = $0.83, expected = $0.797; → Gross income: actual = $25.37 billion, expected = $25.22 billion; Goldman Sachs (GS), report published on 15th July: → Earnings per share: actual = $8.62, expected = $8.35; → Gross income: actual = $12.73 billion, expected = $12.35 billion. Other major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC), have also surpassed analysts' expectations. Although following different trajectories, the stock prices of all the listed banks have generally been rising after the publication of their earnings reports. Notably, the formation on the XLF chart is interesting – this is the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF, which is focused on the financial sector and includes the shares of the largest US banks. You can trade this ETF with FXOpen, taking advantage of CFD instruments. Technical analysis of the XLF chart shows that: → In 2022-2023, the price was in a broad trading range of 30.70-36.6; → In 2023-2024, the price formed an upward channel (shown in blue); → The median line of this channel acts as support; → Rising lows A and B resemble a bullish Cup and Handle pattern. In the wake of the successful bank reports: → the XLF price broke through the 42.20 level, which had been acting as resistance since the end of March; → the RSI indicator entered the overbought zone. It is possible that amid positive earnings reports from other companies in the financial sector: → the XLF price could reach the upper boundary of the blue channel; → the RSI indicator could form a divergence; → subsequently, a correction may form on the chart as investors may wish to lock in profits from the rapid growth. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AMEX:XLF
by FXOpen
1
KRE: Regional Bank Collapse?Financials have been demonstrating some interesting price action. We believe financials in the near term could be in for some choppy negative price action. With yields now sitting at support during the recent selloff, banks haven't done all that well. Were now at a point in the inflation fight where we could experience an upside move in inflation. We just witnessed today the Canadian CPI came in much hotter. To make matters worse, were at a time when central banks like the ECB, BOC, PBOC, BOJ are all loosening policy. However this very laxy=daisy policy is what caused Oil to bottom on June 4th. Oil has since moved up 13% in 2.5 weeks. This will likely cause yields to have upward pressure since its inflationary to the economy. If the US CPI comes in hotter expect no 2024 rate cut...banks would hate that. Im eyeing the head and shoulders breakdown.
AMEX:KRE
by Trading-Capital
Stock Market Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Sectors Heavy selling observed across the S&P500: Financials & Real Estate hit hard. S&P500 hitting the 50 day MA...technical daily support. Some breakout sectors are seeing there first pullback in a bullish trend. The sectors that have had breakouts will likely see dip buyers. Health Care & Utilities are into some interesting support levels. This is where bulls step in. Megacap Tech still saw some flight to safety money! Lets see if this holds.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
Is PYPL ready for recovery?n the daily chart PYPL is at its six-month lows sitting on the support /demand zone after recent earnings which were helpful in showing earnings and revenues holding up. Upside to resistance is about 25%. The volume profile shows heavy volumes at both the current price and at $75 Any upward price action would likely experience volatility at $7 5 as that is where a large a number of institutional traders are situated. This is also approximately where the mean long term anchored VWAP is extending. The MACD indicator's lines have crossed under the histogram which is now green and positive. They are approaching the horizontal zero line. Trading volumes have increased since the last earnings and so shares are being accumulated which usually results in prices rising gradually over time. I see this as an excellent long trade setup targeting first $ 75 and then $87 just under the resistance zone with a stop loss in or under the support.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by AwesomeAvani
5
Capital One to Buy Discover for $35 BillionThe country’s ninth-largest bank, Capital One (NYSE: COF), shocked the finance world when it announced that it will buy Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) for a staggering $35 billion. This all-stock deal is set to be one of the biggest M&A deals of 2024, bringing together two of the nation’s credit card giants to create a true global payments powerhouse. But, what drove Capital One to make this move? It’s clear as day that the Berkshire Hathaway-backed (NYSE: BRK.B) Capital One has finally had enough of the sky-high fees associated with Visa (NYSE: V) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA). By snatching up Discover, Capital One won’t just compete with these industry titans, but it could break free from their clutches altogether. After the news, DFS stock rose 15.6% in premarket trading, while COF stock fell by 3.5%. But there’s just one problem: The rise in DFS stock doesn’t reflect the nearly 27% premium Capital One valued Discover at, which could suggest that investors aren’t entirely convinced that this deal will come to fruition. The Deal Under the terms of the all-stock deal, if you’re a Discover shareholder, you’ll receive 1.0192 shares of COF stock for each DFS stock you own. And what’s really interesting about this is that Discover has a market cap of $27.6 billion, and the deal is valued at $35 billion, which means it’s a 26.6% premium over its closing price on the 16th of February. Moreover, after the deal closes, Capital One shareholders will hold roughly 60% of the combined company, while Discover shareholders will own the remaining 40%. What is Capital One Getting? For starters, now is a good time for credit card companies to make big moves like this one. There’s a boom in the credit card sector because more and more customers are switching from paying with cash to cards. This is largely thanks to generous rewards programs and the strong rise in e-commerce, which started to take off during the pandemic. Additionally, card issuers are getting a boost from increasing credit card debt, which continued to increase last year amid rising prices and declining savings. As for what it’s getting from the deal, buying Discover would give Capital One a large card network, greatly increasing its power in the payments ecosystem. And this is important because card networks are essential for making transactions happen, as well as setting the fees that sellers pay when customers shop with their credit cards. This would allow Capital One to negotiate interchange fees and other terms directly with merchants, making Capital One more of a competitor to companies like Visa and Mastercard. Notably, shares of Visa were down 1.8% in premarket trading after the news, while Mastercard stock was down 3.2%. The deal would also increase the number of cardholders Capital One counts as customers for its credit-card lending business. This deal doesn’t just give Capital One numbers, but quality too, since many Discover cardholders have high credit scores. The deal would also allow Capital One to get its hands on the consumer deposits in Discover’s savings accounts, an area where it already has a large presence but would like to continue growing. When you compare Discover to competitors like Visa and Mastercard, you’d think that Discover is a very small company, but what makes it unique is that it’s one of the few U.S. card issuers that actually have payment networks. Which is the main reason why Capital One is buying it in the first place. Even though it uses Visa and Mastercard for most of the cards it issues, it will likely begin switching some of its cards to Discover after the deal closes. Even after the deal closes, Capital One will continue using Visa and Mastercard thanks to its wider reach. For example, Discover currently has 70 million merchant acceptance, compared to Visa’s 130 million and Mastercard’s nearly 100 million. Still, this could be a play from Capital One to reduce its dependence on Visa and Mastercard, as the pair have come under fire recently for their high fees they charge for processing payments. Some lawmakers have even accused them of forming a “duopoly”. Discover’s Recent Troubles For Discover, the deal couldn’t have come at a better time. The company was going through a tumultuous period with increased regulatory scrutiny and two changes in its leadership. Discover’s troubles are a result of a statement issued last year, in which it stated that it had misclassified certain credit card accounts beginning in 2007 and had incorrectly placed them in the highest pricing tier. As a result, the company was forced to record a liability of $365 million in estimated compensation for everyone involved. In addition to that, Discover received a consent order from the FDIC regarding consumer compliance, but Discover did not release many details about the matter. Discover escaped a fine from regulators after reaching an agreement with the FDIC to improve its compliance management system. A Decade of Offers Interestingly, this is not the first time Discover was approached by a large bank or even a tech company for an acquisition. In fact, the company has been receiving offers for the last decade, especially from tech companies. The reason Discover accepted this deal and not those from tech companies is likely because they were only interested in its payments and card network. For tech companies, Discover offered an opportunity to play a more central role in payments. But, Discover’s older management wasn’t interested in separating the company’s credit card lending side from the network, which is why many deals were rejected. On the other hand, Capital One said that it’s planning to keep the Discover brand on the cards and network. If the deal happens, it will certainly rank among the biggest deals so far for 2024. After a slowdown in M&A activity in 2023 due to increased interest rates that reduced the appetite for massive deals, this deal between Capital One and Discover could reignite interest in this market. The Combined Company There’s an opportunity here to create a new credit card giant, but the main concern for shareholders of COF stock and DFS stock can be summed up in one question: Will the resulting company outperform the broader market in the long-term? Over the past 10 years, COF stock has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of 8.39%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 12.62% annualized return. Compared to the XLF, COF stock has also underpeformed offering an annualized return of 8.39% over the last 10 years, while XLF has yielded 13.08% annualized return. The same can be said for DFS stock which underperformed the XLF during this same period and compared to the SPY, achieved an annualized return of only 9.97% compared to the SPY’s 12.62% annualized return. It’s possible that these two companies hope that combined, they will be able to outperform these benchmarks and take on industry giants. With this merger, the resulting company would create the largest card issuer in the US – immediately surpassing JPMorgan Chase. While Jamie Dimon brushed it off saying “let them compete. Let them try”, the merging companies are likely hoping to capitalize on the credit card sector boom and use their advantages and synergies to generate higher profits and shareholder value than COF stock or DFS stock could achieve on their own. COF Stock Forecast If the deal is approved by regulators, the COF stock forecast looks notably bullish. In fact, Citi analysts stated that with Discover’s valuable payments network it will unlock value that neither company could achieve on its own. As a result, Citi increased its price target for COF stock to $152, offering 11% upside from its closing price on the 16th of February. However, one glaring risk is the fact that M&As of large companies are super hard to pull off. Together, Capital One and Discover will become the sixth-largest bank in the US, with consolidated assets of almost $625 billion. A combination like this will undoubtedly come under intense antitrust scrutiny. The deal is already seeing push back from Senator Warren and 12 congressional Democrats who wrote Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu and the Michael Barr, urging them to block the deal. This appeal is based on their belief that the deal would reduce competition and reduce card issuers’ incentives to offer customers favorable terms. However, its possible that regulators will be more amenable to this deal, since Capital One is a well known company and considered to be a “good actor”. Not to mention, Discover previously pledged to invest $500 million to better its compliance operations after its troubles with the FDIC. Setting aside these regulatory concerns, the two companies expect the deal to close late this year or in early 2025. There is a lot at stake for Capital One which stated that shifting away from Visa and Mastercard’s “duopoly” would help it generate an extra $1.2 billion in revenue in 2027. While COF stock offers a tempting opportunity for long-term investors, veteran investors have seen time and again major deals fall through. Whether it was the collapse of Adobe’s acquisition of Figma or the UK’s decision to block Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, its not unusual for these deals to fall through or at the very least face hurdles such as in Microsoft’s case.
NYSE:COF
by Penny_Stocks_Today
XLF breaking out?XLF has had a pretty good month so far. Probably the worst sector is showing some signs of life despite issues with the banking system. This week XLF has poked its head above the triangle and the close was pretty good. Volume increased from last week as the down trendline was breached. Now, it is not a confirmed breakout yet as horizontal resistance is right above it and things are getting a bit overheated in the shorter time frames. It will be interesting to see how the pullback plays out. Markets are due for a nice pullback soon. If $31.5 - $32.5 area holds on the pullback then it might go off to finish the primary wave 5 sometime during the first half of 2024. This may also pull regional bank stocks that will benefit Russell and IWM.
AMEX:XLFLong
by mukit1
Citizens Financial Group. Possible Upside on Q3'23 Earnings CallBond pressure... Pushing' down on me, Pressing' down on you, No man ask for... Technical graph says that possible upside with NYSE:CFG stocks could be possible, with projected/ targeted line at 52W SMA. With 6.20% dividends yield, double-digit operating yield and P/B just at 0.6, NYSE:CFG securities can be considered as quite undervalued. The protection level can be considered as multi months (6-, 12-months) low.
NYSE:CFG
by Pandorra
XLF - Looking Very WeakFinancials charts have completely been rejected by the downscoping trend line. A weekly bear flag looks like it's about to trigger and send price action much lower. Since the daily chart is getting oversold, waiting for bearish consolidation is a wise decision if you are wanting to short. With the rise in yields recently, it's clear the Banks net interest margins are being squeezed. Will we see another banking crisis? The last time we saw the XLF close below the weekly 50MA, we saw a quick 10% drop.
AMEX:XLF
by Trading-Capital
1
JPM - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Resistance become support at 144 in NEGATIVE reaction. 🔹POSITIVE volume balance indicates higher volume on rising days. 🔹RSI above 70 indicates strong short-term POSITIVE momentum. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NYSE:JPMLong
by wavepoint99
1