XAUUSD Approaching the cyclical rejection level. Strong Sell.Gold (XAUUSD) hasn't so far diverged from the previous two ATH peak patterns (March 08 2022 and August 07 2020) as following this Cycle's new All Time High, it got heavily sold to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which held and initiated a price rebound.
This rebound sequence is now approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the Lower Highs of the previous peak patterns were formed. The price got immediately rejected to at least the previous Low (in our case 1975). In 2022 the sell-off continued immediately, while in 2020 it was more structured and gave another Lower High to sell.
As a result, we expect Gold to reverse soon within the 2070 - 2100 range and target at least 1975 by the end of January 2024.
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Xauusdsignals
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsFollowing the US Federal Reserve's dovish pivot, the market experienced a shift in sentiment when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams expressed reservations about rate cut expectations, emphasizing the central bank's commitment to maintaining inflation at its 2% target. This development led to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, providing some optimism for the US Dollar.
As we navigate through crucial macroeconomic data, including the Fed meeting, the market is processing this information, with the upcoming week poised to influence the direction of price action as we approach the end of the year. It is anticipated that the trends observed over the past six weeks will likely continue to year-end, albeit at a more subdued pace.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.
The $2,030 zone will be our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then a continued buying pressure above this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if price action stays below the $2,030 level and selling pressure persists below the zone, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,960 zone. Generally, Gold remains bullish following a strong rebound from $1,970 on Wednesday. The pair, however, needs to breach the $2,050 resistance area to confirm the bullish view.
Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Stay informed for strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Gold could break above resistanceIn my Monday analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD , I emphasized the continuity of the medium-term bullish trend. However, to solidify this assessment, a decisive break above the resistance level within the consolidation was deemed necessary.
Over the subsequent days, the price exhibited a contained range between established support and resistance levels. Notably, there was discernible upward pressure from the bulls, and an ascending triangle took shape on lower time frames.
To confirm the bullish outlook, a clear breakthrough above the 2050 level is crucial, as previously mentioned. The associated price target for this pattern stands at 2080. My bullish sentiment remains valid as long as the price of XAUUSD stays above the support line of the triangle.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Technical Outlook 🥇
After a confirmed breakout of an intraday horizontal demand cluster,
Gold started to recover steadily within an expanding wedge pattern.
We saw a strong rejection from the broken area.
Our next bearish signal will be a bearish breakout of the support of the wedge
with a 4H candle close below that.
It will push the market at least 2010 level.
If you haven't shorted yet, patiently wait for a breakout.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Outlook Explained 🏅
Gold nicely respected a horizontal daily supply area.
The price formed a bearish engulfing candle on a daily
and violated a support line of a horizontal range on a 4H time frame.
I believe that the price may drop lower next week.
Next supports: 2010 / 2000
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XAUUSD: Channel Down sell signal as last May.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):
The All Time High (ATH) candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is a Channel Up on the medium-term, which last week broke below its bottom but found Support exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you see on the chart, there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.
As a result, since the price has already brokne below the current Channel Up and seems to have been rejected on an emerging (dotted) Channel Down as in May 2023, we expect this time to break the 1D MA50 and Support 1 and extend towards Support 2. We are bearish, targeting 1930.
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Gold's Price Odyssey: From ATH to Reversals – Where Next?The past two weeks have been marked by significant volatility in the price of $OANDA:XAUUSD. Initially, Gold experienced a strong spike, reaching a new all-time high at 2150. This was followed by a robust reversal, causing the price to drop below 2,000 and breach several crucial support levels. To add to the complexity, the price surged once again last week, reclaiming levels above important resistance, only to stabilize within the familiar range of 2020 to 2050.
These tumultuous market movements raise a pertinent question: What is the medium-term direction?
On one hand, the overall trend remains bullish, and as long as the 2010-2015 zone remains intact, this trend is likely to persist.
On the other hand, a substantial reversal from the all-time high suggests the possibility of a medium-term trend change.
In conclusion, I will closely monitor the specified support and resistance levels. A decisive break above or below these levels could provide more clarity, at least in theory.
GOLD (XAUUSD): 2 Scenarios Explained 🥇
US fundamentals are coming in 30 minutes.
Here are the potential scenarios for Gold.
Bullish Scenario
The market is currently testing 2041 resistance.
If the market breaks and closes above that
a bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2070.
Bearish Scenario
Gold is currently consolidating within a narrow
horizontal range on an hourly time frame.
If the price breaks and closes below its support - 2029,
a bearish movement will be anticipated at least to 2015.
Wait for a breakout and then follow the market.
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XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold price retreated and closed at the $2,000 mark for the first time since November 24, extending its losses. This decline follows the latest US employment report, indicating an improving labor market. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 199K jobs, exceeding forecasts, while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.7%. Additionally, University of Michigan (UoM) data showed increased optimism among American households about the economy and a downward revision of inflation expectations. Market focus turns to the upcoming US inflation report and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Inflation is expected to remain at 3.1% annually, with no change in monthly inflation, while the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to stay at 4% unchanged YoY and 0.3% monthly. Traders anticipate the US central bank to maintain current interest rates. As we gear up for a busy week filled with high-impact events from the US economic docket, how should we prepare?
XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.
The $2,000 zone will be our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then a continued buying pressure above this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if price action drops below the $2,000 level and selling pressure persists below the zone, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,960 zone.
Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Stay informed for strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
XAUUSD H8 - Long SignalWe were trading south of that $2000/oz price during recent trade, pulling as low as $1975/oz. Again, upside moves witnessed follow FED outlook, a lot of the pairs we follow and trade revolve around the USD and thus a soft USD means ***USD climb higher.
Still focussed on that $2000/oz support price, the D1 trend is still valid and pointing to the upside, hopefully a healthy correction from 1975 to 2040 sits us in that 2000 region for potential longs.
XAUUSDDear Traders,
Gold has shown extreme bearish momentum since last Tuesday, institutional buyers took the price all time high and dumped it. Price will continue the drop either from the current area or from 2020. Our target is 1930 region which will be 700 pips.
show some love if you agree with the idea and good luck :)
Gold- CPI could bring a new local lowOn my Monday's OANDA:XAUUSD analysis I wrote than there is a high chance of a change of trend in Gold's price and this remain the case.
After breaking under the ascending trend line and the important 2k figure, Gold has made a local low at 1973 and, in my opinion, more loses will come.
Yesterday's spike up at 1996 offers resistance and rallies to that zone should be sold
The target is 1940 zone resistance and negation comes with a daily close above 2010-2015 zone
The market is facing expectations that gold will decline sharplyGold markets are quiet ahead of the Fed's policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of this policy meeting. The market is predicting about a 45% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in March 2024.
Gold speculators are hoping for a series of important economic data to be released soon. Important US inflation data will also be released this week.
Additionally, traders will keep a close eye on the US Treasury note and bond auctions on Monday and Tuesday.
The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank all hold monetary policy meetings on December 14.
Gold price forecast
Chris Gaffney, president of global markets at EverBank, said the market is on edge with interest rate expectations. The only risk to precious metals prices next year is the Fed having to maintain higher interest rates for longer.
Daniel Pavilonis, commodities broker at RJO Futures, said interest rates may pause adjustment. The precious metal will move sideways within the $2,000/ounce range this week.
Entry sell 1990-2000
TP 197x - 195x
SL 2015
XAUUSD 1D Symmetry giving a strong break-out sell signal.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):
That Monday candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is still a Channel Up on the medium-term, with the price approaching its bottom.
As you might have already observed there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.
As a result, if the price breaks below the current Channel Up, we expect not to stop on the 1D MA50 or Support 1 but rather extend towards Support 2. That will be a break-out sell signal for us, targeting 1930.
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XAUUSD 10.12.23 SELL & BUY PROJECTIONReason For Bearish
1.Bearish Engulfing Formed
2.Breaked 2012 and waiting for retest 2012
3. Approaching Next Support @ 1980
Reason For Bullish
1.Obey Strong Support @ 1980
2. Obey Golden Ratio 0.631 Fibonacci retracement
Overall Possible Outcomes
XAUUSD SELL@ 2010-15
SL 2022
TP1 1980
XAUUSD BUY @ 1980
SL 1960
TP1 2000
TP 2 2020
Riding the NFP: Is Gold Set for a 400 Pips Rally?OANDA:XAUUSD traded within a 200-pip range throughout yesterday, establishing a distinct support at 2020 and a ceiling around the 2040 zone.
The jobless claims failed to provide a clear directional cue. Following an initial dip to the support level, Gold swiftly rebounded, settling around the familiar 2030 mark.
Maintaining the stance shared earlier this week, my outlook remains bullish, contingent upon the integrity of the 2010-2020 zone and the absence of a daily close below this range.
In yesterday's post, I highlighted a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern on a lower timeframe. The pattern is now clearer, with the right shoulder forming an accumulation range. A breakout above the pattern's neckline, aligning neatly with an old horizontal support line, has the potential to trigger a robust ascent.
Considering the pattern's target of 300 pips, I anticipate an extension beyond this level to reach the 2070 old ATH zone and Monday's congestion zone.
XAUUSD The NFP is 'do-or-die' moment for this pattern.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading exactly at the bottom of the 2-month Channel Up, restrained below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which ahead of today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is getting increasing dangerous. Technically, as long as the Channel Up holds, the current level is the most optimal buy opportunity for another +11.00% bullish sequence (as the previous two Higher Highs) targeting above 2200.
With the 1D RSI though showing no divergence at all with the price's Higher Lows (as opposed to the previous two bottoms of the Channel Up), it is the first time on this pattern that a bearish break-out is so likely to take place. We will look for a break below the 2010 Support as our sell signal. Due to the usual high volatility that is expected during NFP releases, if we do get a bearish break-out, it is quite probable to reach the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) even within the day. Sell target on this, 1965.
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XAUUSD for non-farm trendGlobal gold prices rose slightly this morning, with spot gold prices up $2.4 to $2,028 per ounce. Gold futures traded at $2,045.3 per ounce, up $1.6 from the previous day.
Global gold markets were slightly volatile as investors awaited the release of key US jobs data on Friday (US time). This data is intended to help determine U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate trends.
The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a three-month low, while gold edged higher as a 0.6% drop in the dollar index made the precious metal more attractive to investors. Holders of other currencies.
Ole Hansen, a commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, said the biggest concern for gold right now is that markets are pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts early. Today's jobs report will therefore be part of the answer to the possibility of a rate cut.
According to Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, gold is waiting for key data points in the US and the Fed meeting before making its next move. "Whether gold returns to record highs will depend on this year's final labor market data," Ahlam said.
Looking ahead to next year's gold market, World Gold Council experts recently noted that while market expectations that the US will achieve a soft landing have made gold historically less attractive, geopolitical tensions and central bank He said that combined demand for gold has made gold less attractive, which could provide support. In 2024.
Gold held above support, will it start rising?In my yesterday OANDA:XAUUSD analysis I wrote that the situation for the medium term remains unclear, and this remains the fact so far.
However, there are some good signs for bulls:
First of all, after touching 2010 confluence support, the price reversed quickly to 2040 zone resistance.
Second, yesterday Gold has made a higher low in the 2020 zone.
Considering that, in spite of Monday's movement, the medium-term is still grossly bullish, 2010 could be a local bottom.
In the past 20 hours or so Gold remained in a range and even we have price congestion, a break looking imminent now.
I believe this break will be to the upside and in such a case, 2050 is the next resistance for traders to watch.
At this moment I'm very cautious when it comes to Gold, but 2070 is not out of the question by week's end, if bulls manage to maintain the 2020 zone intact.
P.S: In the alternative scenario, a drop under 2020, I believe, will lead to a break of confluence support (2010) and, in that case, Gold will become bearish in the medium-term.