Gold’s Bullish Path: Will It Hold? What to Expect NextThis idea focuses on Gold's short-term potential based solely on technical analysis.
If you have a different perspective, please share your thoughts in the comments.
--Overview--
Gold has been on a bullish run since the beginning of July, successfully breaking through the $2,450 mark after multiple attempts. However, it is now encountering resistance around $2,530. If the current momentum weakens, there's a risk that Gold could retrace to the $2,420-$2,450 range. It's important to note that this potential short-term pullback doesn't impact the long-term outlook, which remains strongly bullish.
My reasoning is as follows,
In this view, Gold is currently attempting to break through the $2,450 resistance level, highlighted by the yellow trend line.
When Gold reached a new all-time high at $2,480, it reinforced the bullish sentiment, fueling further momentum. We can see the momentum shift clearly because after the new ATH Gold didn't fall back to 2300$ but instead kept its position at around the yellow circle.
Gold starts moving with the steeper bullish trend shown as blue.
This is what concerns me..
Gold already reached the top of this trend. If momentum doesn't increase further more, a short-term pullback seems likely.
I see two potential scenarios that could sustain the current short-term bullish momentum without a loss.
First, Gold could attempt to retest the upper boundary of the blue trend. If it gains additional momentum, possibly fueled by increased buying in anticipation of a new all-time high, this could extend the bullish move.
Alternatively, Gold might experience a slight pullback, falling to around the midpoint of the blue trend. If momentum shifts again creating a higher low inside the blue trend, this could spark a stronger bullish rally.
With that being said, I find both of these scenarios difficult as of Today.
What is possible then?
I have narrowed down the timeframe...
A retest of the upper boundary around ~2530$ or possibly ~2540$.
Or no retest at all, and a pullback to ~2420$ which is still very bullish on the weekly chart.
Beyond this level, it's difficult to make a fair assessment. We’ll need to wait and see how it plays.
I have included this perspective to better make sense on the sell pressure around the last weeks all-time high.
This idea is based on my opinions and expectations, please don't forget to do your own analysis before taking risks.
