Further downside unlocked for GoldGold - The pendulum has swung in both directions clearing all of the soft hands.
In July 2020 we were talking about the highs cooking for a couple of years as the price was not quite ready to explode in the ways that some thought (towards 5,000-10,000 or etc).
Sure we saw a lot of institutional interest and activity levels are still high with risk leaving a damp smell in the air, however, the chart suggests that we have further downside to come. Technicals can extend as low as 1518 and still maintain the multi-year trend higher.
I am actively looking to load more gold but at a lot lower levels, and timing wise most likely not until we have seen liquidations in in Q1 2022. Until then, my near term bearish setup is in play with all eyes on 1518 - 1509. Invalidation in the view comes with a breach of 'b' in this corrective fourth wave.
GOLD/EUR
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (9th September 2021)In recent days XAUUSD dropped below 1800 USD towards it short term support around 1785 USD. Since then it rebounded little bit and it currently trades around 1795 USD. In the big picture we are still very bullish on gold. Especially in medium-term and long-term. Although, XAUUSD failed to break above its short-term resistance and travel through its confirmation area we detailed in our previous thoughts. We are closely watching upper bound of the downward moving channel. We think this upper bound currently acts as strong support and if it is broken then more selling pressure is likely to occur. However, gold seems as its trend is further weakening and becoming neutral. We are getting strong notion that gold will remain stuck trading between 1750 USD and 1840 USD for indefinite amount of time. Despite that we remain bullish and exepct eventual breakout to the upside from this area. Because of that our short term price target remains 1850 USD while our medium term price target remains 1875 USD.
Technical analysis
Stochastic is bearish. MACD is in the bullish territory. However, it stages reversal and needs to be closely observed over the next few days. Crossover by MACD below 0 points would be bearish for gold in the short term. RSI is flattening, however, its short term structure remains bullish. ADX is very low suggesting neutral trend and sideways moving price action. Closest supports sit around 1785 USD and 1750 USD respectively. Major support sits at 1677.686 USD. Strong resistance appears around 1835 USD while another important resistance sits around 1916 USD. Overall technicals are mixed. As we mentioned previously we are getting strong notion that gold will trade sideways for while before finally new trend commences.
Our previous thought from 3rd September 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (3rd September 2021)Since our last update on 27th August 2021 gold has traveled towards resistance around 1834 USD. It currently trades around 1830 USD. In the following days we will observe gold for strength. We will watch out for breakout above 1834 USD as we remain bullish on gold. Our short term price target remains 1850 USD and our medium term price target remains 1875 USD. We expect gold to continue march higher and surpass all time high over next 12 months.
Technical analysis
RSI is very bullish. MACD crossed 0 points to the upside as we recently predicted. Stochastic is bullish too. All this strongly bolsters bullish case for gold. Current immediate support/resistance sists around 1834 USD. Next major resistance is around 1916 USD. As opposed to that major support level is around 1714 USD while short term support is around 1785 USD.
Prior developements from 23rd August 2021:
Here we predicted crossover in MACD and breaking above 1800 USD pricetag.
Prior developements from 10th August 2021:
Here we noted that price was very attractive for long entry.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (27th August 2021)Gold continues to rise and we remain bullish. Gold took off to the upside from the upper bound of downward moving channel. Current important area is around 1830 USD. If gold manages to break above this price level it will further bolster a bullish case for gold. We will view this as another confirmation of that gold bottomed out on 9th August. RSI is bullish. Stochastic is also bullish. MACD line crossed over 0 to the upside. This is very bullish. Although, ADX contains low value which suggests neutral or very weak trend at the moment. Therefore investors should be cautious. We would like to change our medium price target of 1850 USD to short term price target. Similarly, we would like to change our long term price target of 1875 USD to medium term price target. We expect gold to continue march higher.
Previous thoughts from 25th August 2021:
Here we observed upper bound of downward moving channel for any weakness. We noted that we were bullish.
Prior developements from 10th August 2021:
Here we noted that price of gold was very attractive for entry of the long position. We also noted that price of gold was very oversold.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (25th August 2021)Gold took some step back after its breakout above 1800 USD. It currently trades around 1792 USD. We think upper bound of downward moving channel should be closely observed in the following days as it currently acts as immediate support for gold. Plunge below this level could lead to short term weakness. Although, we expect 1750 USD (previous support/resistance) to hold in case of further selling pressure. Stochastic is bullish. RSI continues to change back and forth from neutral to bullish on daily timeframe. MACD has bullish direction and we expect it to perform crossover above 0 points. We expect this to be very bullish for gold. In the big picture we remain bullish on gold with medium term price target of 1850 USD and long term price target of 1875 USD. Though, our price target for next 12 months is much higher at 2100 USD.
Prior developements from 10th August 2021:
Here we noted that price of gold was attractive for long entry. We also announced that we believe gold is near end of its struggle to move higher.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (23rd August 2021)For last few trading sessions gold has been trading near the upper bound of its downward moving channel. Short term resistance appears between 1780 USD and 1795 USD while short term support sits near 1750 USD. There is also major support around 1678 USD. RSI is neutral to bullish at the moment. Stochastic is bullish. MACD is still below 0 but it has gained bullish direction. We will be watching whether crossover above 0 occurs in MACD over the following days. This would be bullish sign. We also believe that it would coincide with gold surpassing 1800 USD pricetag. We remain bullish on gold.
MACD on daily timeframe:
Prior developements from 10th August 2021:
Here we noted that price was very attractive for entry of the long position.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: 19th August 2021Gold's price has retraced back to its 20-day Simple Moving Average. RSI is flat. Stochastic is bullish. MACD is still in a bearish zone. However, its direction is to the upside. We will observe MACD for next few days. We will be looking for crossover above 0 points. This would be bullish developement and could lead to price increase above 1800 USD. Gold has currently strong resistance in area between 1780 USD and 1795 USD. Price has been climbing steadily since 9th August 2021 when gold plunged to its medium term support around 1670 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (13th August 2021)Gold has rebounded from its recent low at 1677.686 USD. Currently it trades around 1750 USD. RSI reversed to the upside and crossed above 30 points on its way, showing bullish signs at the moment. MACD is flattening out. Stochastic oscillates in its lower area, although, it starts to show first signs of reversing to the upside similarly like RSI. First resistance sits near 1790 USD which coincides with 20-day Simple Moving Average. Second resistance appears around 1835 USD and third resistance around 1917 USD. We think all these levels will be taken out over time. We also think it is highly possible that gold has already bottomed out (in recent slump) at its medium/long term support from March 2021. Our medium term price target remains 1850 USD and our long term price target remains 1875 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Ichimoku Keltner Strategy (by Flexa)-INDICES/METALS BacktestingThe pair and the timeframe you see is the winner in the INDICES/METALS category with profit factor criteria
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Using the previous data :
* Best timeframe for all categories : 1m with 46 and 10m with 42 pairs
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Check my posts for all instrument categories
1st (FOREX), 2nd(CRYPTOs) and 3rd(INDICES/METALS)
I will split each strategy backtesting in this manner
I'm talking for strategy :
Ichimoku Keltner Strategy (by Flexa) Oct 19, 2017
I test 29 Forex pairs from FXCM, 51 Crypto Pairs from Binance and 46 CFDs Indices and Metals from OANDA
In total 126 pairs using 32 !!! timeframes
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,12,15,17,20,24,25,30,45 minutes
1,1-1/2,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,12,16,20 hours
1 and 2 Days
In total 4032 results per strategy
I like profit factor and Sharpe ratio as my main guides but also percent profitable does matter
The results of forex were with 1000 contracts, default currency USD and 0.07 USD per order commission
At Cryptos i use 1 contract, default currency USD and no commission because most cryptos are spread based.
At Indices i use the same details as Crypto.
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I can't post direct links according to house rules, since i love TradingView and i play with their rules.
However my profile links and my signature may help for extensive information.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (10th August 2021)Many people may feel perplexed about yesterday's selloff in gold when price halted its decline at 1677.686 USD (after 4 bn. USD sell order hit the market). At some point a spread between bid and ask reached more than 35 USD (mainly around yesterday's low). Upbeat economic data with decreasing unemployment point to the steady recovery and lay out path for future rate hikes and taper by the FED. Yesterday's price decline stopped at March lows suggesting strong support in this area. RSI reached oversold level and is striving to reverse. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. Despite that we believe there is not much more downside for gold from here. We believe that short term struggle in gold is nearing its end. Eventually FED will be forced to hike interest rates due to soaring inflation making it bullish case for gold in long run. In our opinion current price of gold is very attractive for entering a long position. Our medium term price target remains 1850 USD and our long term price target remains 1875 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (6th August 2021)Gold has been trading sidways for a while now. ADX contains low value which suggest neutral trend remains in place. In addition to that RSI, MACD and Stochastic are neutral. Despite current struggle in gold to move up we remain optimistic on future price of gold. Our medium term price target remains 1850 USD and our long term price target remains 1875 USD.
Prior developements from 21st July 2021:
Here we suggested that gold would be moving along upper channel line for indefinite amount of time. We still expect gold to decouple from this area and move to the upside.
More developements from 30th June 2021:
Here we hinted at divergence between price and RSI. We also correctly predicted reversal in price direction.
More developements from 26th May 2021:
Here we suggested that gold reached overbought zone and odds of correction were increasingly growing.
More developements from 16th April 2021:
Here we correctly predicted move to upper bound of downward moving channel.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (29th July 2021)We correctly predicted that gold would move along the upper channel line for few days before moving higher. Yesterday gold decoupled from the upper channel line to the upside. RSI and MACD are bullish. Stochastics is also reversing to the bullish side. We expect gold to continue go higher and subsequently reach our price targets. Our short term price target of 1850 USD remains in place. Similarly, our medium price target of 1875 USD also remains in place.
Developements from 26th July 2021:
Here we suggested that gold would move along the upper channel line before finally moving higher.
Developements from 30th June 2021:
Here we hinted at divergence between price and RSI. We also correctly predicted end of correction and reversal in price direction to the upside.
Developements from 26th May 2021:
Here we suggested that gold was reaching overbought zone in the short term. We also hinted at growing odds of shortlived correction.
Developements from 16th April 2021_
Here we correctly predicted move to the upper channel line.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (26th July 2021)Technical indicators are mixed for gold. Yet fundamentals remain bullish. As gold continues to move along upper channel line we believe that it is poised for further move up. Our short term price target remains 1850 USD and our medium term price target remains 1875 USD.
Prior thoughts from 14th July 2021:
More prior thoughts from 30th June 2021:
Here we hinted at divergence between price and RSI. We also correctly predicted reversal in price.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (9th July 2021)Recently we correctly predicted reversal in the downtrend of smaller degree (correction). Subsequently our price target of 1810 USD per ounce was reached. Currently, RSI, MACD and Stochastics are bullish. Our new medium term price target is 1850 USD per ounce.
Thoughts from 30th June 2021:
Here we hinted at divergence between RSI and price of gold. We also noted that this would lead to reversal in price direction.
More thoughts from 11th June 2021:
Here we warned investors about higher volatility around FOMC date and possible plunge in XAUUSD.
More thoughts from 19th May 2021:
Here we observed that gold was reaching overbought condition.
More prior developements from 16th April 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (30th June 2021)Drop in XAUUSD this week may be perplexing to many people. However, yesterday we outlined case for divergence between price and RSI. This is very positive developement for price of gold. Our short term price target remains 1810 USD per ounce.
Our prior thoughts from 28th June 2021:
Here we covered technical indicators and outlined case for divergence between price and RSI. We expect price to get back above support line very soon.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (28th June 2021)After FOMC decision and subsequent fall of gold XAUUSD has been in neutral trend for more than a week now. This is well visible on 1-hour time frame and simultaneously reflected in low ADX value. On 1-day time frame RSI reversed from oversold area and gained bullish direction. MACD slowly loses momentum but Stochastics remains bearish. ADX value remains high and due to a reset soon. Price of XAUUSD steadily holds above strong support. Our short term price target remains 1810 USD per ounce.
1-hour timeframe:
Here we can see low ADX value.
Our thoughts from 18th June 2021:
Our thoughts from 17th May 2021:
Our thoughts from 16th April 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (18th June 2021)Yesterday gold halted its decline at 1767.295 USD per ounce and we saw heavy accumulation below 1800 USD pricetag. MACD remains bearish. RSI and Stochastics show signs of being oversold. In addition to that RSI seems as it wants to reverse back to the upside. However, investors should be wary that drawdawn towards 1750 USD is still possible. Though, we do not have high confidence in such move. Rather we expect gold to stop correcting soon and reverse back to the upside. We set our medium term price target to 1810 USD per ounce.
Our thoughts from yesterday:
Here we warned that gold could continue its decline below 1800 USD.
Here are our thoughts from 11th June 2021:
Here we warned of volatility in gold around FOMC date.
Some prior thoughts from 17th May 2021:
Here we anticipated breakout above upper bound.
Prior developements from 16th April 2021:
Here we correctly predicted move to 1900 USD per ounce.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (17th June 2021)Yesterday gold plunged to 1803.636 USD after FOMC decision. FED announced that it expects 2 rate hikes in 2023 and possibillity of tapering talks. We think market might take some time to proccess this information. In addition to that support at 1852 USD has been taken out and RSI, Stochastics and MACD are all bearish on daily timeframe. Gold travelled back below upper bound of its previous downward channel. This points to possible continuation of correction that could take us below 1800 USD pricetag. However, we expect the correction to be temporary as we think that bullish trend of higher degree remains intact. This is mainly due to soaring inflation which represents bullish environment for gold. Though, in short term we expect gold to struggle.
Here are our thoughts from 11th June 2021:
Here we warned investors about possible volatility in gold around FOMC date.
Here are prior developements from 26th May 2021:
Prior developements from 6th May 2021:
More prior developements from 16th April 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (11th June 2021)Last week gold halted its decline at 1856.040 USD after finding resistance at 1916 USD. Support remains at 1852 USD. We think price will trade in range between support and resistance for a while. There is even possibility that support will be retested, however, we think there is small chance it will be taken out. Technicals are currently mixed. We believe bullish trend of higher degree remains intact and in long term gold has more upside than downside. Though, investors should be aware that there is FOMC next week and price might be volatile. Our long term target of 2100 USD remains unchanged.
Here are some prior developements from 26th May 2021:
Here we outlined case for sharp and shortlived corretion with support of 1852 USD. Correction subsequently occured and halted its decline at 1856.040 USD.
More developements:
Here are prior developements from 16th April 2021:
Here we outlined our long term targets that were already met.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.