XAGUSDWe are witnessing a decreasing trend in a channelized space. We are currently witnessing a negative divergence and we are on a static resistance in the range of 21.76186.
We have 2 scenarios ahead:
1. In case of breaking the resistance, you can experience a growth up to the ranges of 21.86676 and 21.95601 or between them and then continue the decrease up to the specified ranges.
2. It cannot break the resistance, the divergence works and the 3 specified targets of the harmonic patterns that have been completed in the ranges of 21.69113-21.59853-21.52730 can be considered as targets. If all of them fail We have the important range of 21.40745 in the intersection with the B area of the pattern, which is considered a strong resistance.
Xagusdsignals
XAGUSD Hanging on a tight thread about to turn bearish.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 ( orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension .
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
At the moment, with a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that Silver is has been pushing downwards on the 1.382 Fib treating it as strong of a Resistance so far as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically since the price broke below the 1D MA50, the confirmation of the downtrend will come if it breaks inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which is exactly where today's low hit. That was the Bearish Signal on the April 19 2022 Ichimoku breach.
If that happens, we can see a nose-dive even as low as the 0.382 Channel Fib. Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame is being rejected on the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD closing above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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XAGUSD Next MovePair : XAGUSD ( Silver / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Bearish Channel as a Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame and Made a Breakout of the Upper Trend Line
Divergence
Break Of Structure
Consolidation Phase in Short Time Frame wait until it Breaks the Upper Zone or the Lower Zone
Completed the " 12345 " Impulsive Wave and Corrective " ABC " Wave
XAGUSD 16-20 Jan Next MovePair : XAGUSD ( Silver / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Rising Wedge in Long Time Frame and Rejecting from the Upper Trend Line with Strong Bearish Price Action as Impulse
Making Correction in the Form Bullish Channel and Rejecting from the Upper Trend Line
Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
S- R Level
Resistance Level
Divergence
Completed " ABC " Corrective Wave
Silver could drop 2k pipsSince the low back in June 2022, Silver has traded in a range and although there were 4 attempts for a break under 18usd figure and even a false break at the beginning of September, bulls held strong and finally won the battle.
XagUsd started to rise in October and broke above the resistance of the 6 months range in November. A nice rise followed and the precious metal has gained more than 6k pips in 3 months if we count from the bottom to the top.
However, at this point, Silver looks like it wants to correct and the first and the second trading days of the year are Pin Bars.
The ascending trendline is also broken to the downside and these could be signs of an imminent drop.
My strategy is to sell rallies against 22.80 with a target at the 22 zone. Also, a deeper correction could drive the price even at 21 important support.
XAGUSD Hit the extreme top of the 2 year Channel Down.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
So what now? With a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that the rejection 3 days ago is so far as strong as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically as long as the price is below the 1.382 Channel Fib, we should see a 1D MA50/ MA200 test, at least on the short-term. If after that the price fails to regain the 1D MA50, we can even see a nose-dive back to the 0.382 Channel Fib.
Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame just entered the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD not just closing above the 1.382 Channel Fib but above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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SILVER (XAGUSD) - LONG Position - SwingI am going long on XAGUSD (Silver).
My Elliott Wave count points me to a C leg in an Impulse or Diagonal as the next possible move.
XAGUSD Long - Technical Analysis:
- ABC (Minute (orange)) sequence
- Bullish Bat Harmonic
- Bullish Divergence
- 78.6-88.6% Fibonacci Retracement of Minor A (white)
- 161.8% Fibonacci Extension of Minutes A&B (orange)
Silver Buy Orders - Trading Signal:
Entry @ 18.10
SL @ 16.40
TP @ 20.00 / 21.40 / 21.80
XAGUSD | New perspective Despite been on a long term bearish momentum since the beginning of the year, the breakout of the bearish trend line on the daily timeframe a couple of weeks ago opened up the possibility of a potential reversal pattern in the coming week(s). However, since the breakout of the trendline we have noticed the appearance of a consolidation phase just above the $21.000 zone which also reflects selling pressure in the last 2 weeks.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
XAGUSD Huge sell opportunitySilver (XAGUSD) has been trading since September exactly like we wanted it to, as we have been tracking its long-term Channel Down pattern correctly:
Our 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target has been hit, with the price also marginally breaking above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down (Fibonacci level 1.0). That doesn't call for a bullish extension towards the 1.382 Fib like the Ukraine - Russia was extreme did, as the price quickly retraced back below the 1D MA200.
This continues to replicate the rebound after the Internal Lower Lows, which is the fractal that helped us take that buy trade on September. That sequence, following the 1D MA200 rejection, pulled-back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Since the current top on the September - November bullish leg was made a Fib level higher, we are setting the targeted low higher as well, on the 0.382 Fib instead of the 0.236.
The next buy opportunity would be when the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold barrier again.
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XAGUSD | New perspective With the identification of a reversal pattern above a strong demand zone in the 4H timeframe, I am of the opinion that we might be witnessing buying traction during the course of the new week's trading session.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
XAGUSDXAGUSD is uptrand, if there is confirmation of rejection in the demand area, we can re-buy following the trend and target swing highs
XAGUSD ShortList of confluences:
1: Trendline Breakout
2: Rising Wedge Breakout
3: Bearish Market Structure LH + LL
When we look at the bigger picture trend, we can see that sliver is in an overall bearish down trend. We can clearly see a trendline breakout and a rising wedge breakout in the
direction of the bigger trend. This is followed by visible bearish market structure as price is creating lower highs and lower lows. These combined with an extremely strong
US dollar and a 40 year high CPI data release, we are expecting silver to trend lower as the fed continues with its aggressive rate hikes.
XAGUSD | New perspective The appearance of a reversal pattern around the bearish trendline identified on the daily time frame insinuates a bearish momentum for the week.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) is high-risk and unsuitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SILVER Can't rise more unless this level breaksSilver (XAGUSD) has been pulling back in the last 3 days following an impressive +18% rise since the September 28 Low. As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal almost a month ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out:
After breaking above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the price didn't reach as high as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but it did hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the level that the October 2021 rise topped (on November 12 2021) and got rejected back to the 0.236 Fibonacci a month later. The similarities between the two fractals are obvious even between their 1D RSI sequences where are you see, based on the symmetry, Silver might have made a peak similar to that of November 12 2021.
If the price continues to replicate the 2021 pattern, then we can target the 0.236 Fib again. The ideal confirmation will be given once the 1D MA50 breaks again. So trade this in accordance to your tolerance levels. The lowest risk buy would be exactly on the 0.236 Fib.
On the bull side, the above strategy is invalidated if the price breaks and closes above the 1D MA200 first. In that case, we can start buying again and target the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was reached in March 2022 at the height of the Ukraine - Russia war.
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Silver- 19.50-20 zone is very important for bullsOn Monday, Silver has a strong bull break above 20usd very important zone given by the horizontal, psychological, and falling trend line of a channel.
Yesterday the price had an intraday correction and at this moment looks ready to continue its ascent.
The next target is 22 resistance and for this scenario to be valid 20 and slightly under should remain intact.
Buy dips in that zone can be a good strategy
Silver can rise 3000 pipsAfter the recent drop under 18, Silver corrected higher and reached 19.50-19.80 resistance given by the horizontal level and the falling trend line of a falling wedge pattern.
A new drop followed, but this new attempt of breaking under 18 failed (at least so far)
Considering the importance of the 18 zone support, a level that offered resistance back in 2019 and 2020, I expect a reversal to the upside from Silver and bulls can buy against the recent low with 20.60 and 21.80 in extension as targets.
I will remain bullish as long as 17.80 is intact
XAGUSD Hit the 1D MA50. Major break-out possible!Silver (XAGUSD) hit today its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 4 weeks (since Aug 17). It did so after rebounding on an Internal Lower Lows trend-line similar to that of August 09 - September 29 2021. This is basically the formation that emerged within the 1.5 year long-term Channel Down pattern that has been dominating the bearish trend since the February 01 2021 market high.
The Aug-Sep 2021 fractal rebounded after hitting the Internal Lower Lows and following the 1D MA50 break-out, it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.786 Channel Fib retracement. Notice that both fractals made the 1D MA50 test on the 0.382 Fib. The 1D RSI patterns among the two are also similar. As a result, if the price closes above the 1D MA50, we will target the 1D MA200 or the 0.786 Fib (whichever comes first, most likely th 0.786 Fib will).
We are only willing to short if the price closes below the Channel Down and target the Bearish Extreme of -0.382, just like the Bullish Extreme of the March 2022 Russia - Ukraine war, targeted the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
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XAGUSD At the bottom of the 2 year Channel DownSilver (XAGUSD) has been approaching the bottom of the long-term Channel Down that has been trading in since the February 01 2021 High. This makes it an automatic technical buy targeting first the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in extension. This is depicted on the 1D RSI as well which is rising after breaking below the 30.00 oversold level.
As long as the bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line holds, the price action is a buy. If it breaks, we may see the price drop as low as the -0.382 Fibonacci extension, which is the symmetrical move that happened during the March 2022 war extreme.
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