Wyckoffaccumulation
Top Down Analysis Of US30(Down Jones) Buy to Sell Pt2/3We are in a bearish MS overall on the higher time frames. And market just broke Market Bullish Market Structure so we can expect an retracement to the recent high. Before price continue selling. So I spotted Accumulation Schematic 1 on the 3 min Timeframe for possible entry.
NEOUSD & *Completed* Wyckoff AccumulationBackground:
This is continuation of this post in which we explore the Alt Coin Market Cap showing signs of Wyckoffian accumulation. Please review this chart work first.
Chart Analysis:
It appears that NEOUSD, the 20th largest crypto coin by market cap, has recently completed Wyckoff Accumulation and is currently undergoing a Wyckoffian SOS or "Sign of Strength". If accurate, this would indicate that the Composite Man, the marionettist of macro markets, is leaving the accumulation phase and beginning his macro markup campaign. This is particularly exciting since the last time we saw a similar macro example was in 2015 with BTCUSD where it made a ~100X return from the accumulated lows. Something similar here would suggest ~$400 NEOUSD at the end of the upcoming bull run.
Note: A return to the prior trade range ($15.50 or below) would disqualify this setup as shown. More consolidation would be needed before a macro pattern could be identified.
A Wyckoff analysis of WAVES revisitedActually it looks like this may be further along than I thought. It is possible it will break out here after showing the SOS.
A Wyckoff analysis of WAVEShere I applied a wyckoff approach to this. I labeled the selling climax (SC) the automatic response (AR) and secondary tests (st) as well as potential area for signs of strength (SOS) we shall see.
Ethereum Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics AnalysisIn this post, I'll be analyzing Ethereum's Tether pair (USDT), using the Wyckoff Method.
What is the Wyckoff Method?
The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard Demille Wyckoff, a famous technical analyst of the early 20th century.
He proposed the idea that markets can be understood through a detailed analysis of its supply and demand, which is seen through price action, volume, and time.
He developed the idea of correctly anticipating and judging the direction and magnitude of a move out of a trading range.
Why does Wyckoff's Method work so well in cryptocurrency markets?
We can see Wyckoff's accumulation and distribution schematics working best when applied to cryptocurrency markets.
This is mostly because his theory assumes a "composite man", a being who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the asset to your disadvantage if you don't understand the game he plays, and to great profit if you understand it.
He event went as far as to say that it doesn't matter whether the market moves are real or not; whether it happens by real buying or selling, or artificial buying or selling by investors.
As such, the Wyckoff Method is a perfect fit for a heavily manipulated market, such as the cryptocurrency market, as it allows traders to think like a whale.
In the cryptocurrency market, thinking like a whale (a composite man) will help a trader profit tremendously.
Terminology
- Preliminary Support (PS): This is where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged downtrend.
- Selling Climax (SC): This is the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy panic selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests near the bottom.
- Automatic Rally (AR): This is where intense selling pressure is greatly diminished.
- Secondary Test (ST): A point in which price revisits the area of the Selling Climax (SC) to test the supply and demand balance at these levels.
- Sign of Strength (SOS): A point where the price advances on increasing spread and relatively higher volume.
- Last Point of Support (LPS): The low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS.
Analysis
- Ethereum's chart on the 4h time frame can be interpreted from Wyckoff's accumulation schematics.
- Phase A: This phase marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant.
- Phase B: This phase serves as a function of a new uptrend. This is where professional interests accumulate, at relatively low prices, in preparation for the next markup.
- Phase C: This is where stock prices go through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing smart money investors to confirm a markup
- Phase D: If the analysis is correct, this is the phase in which consistent demand dominates supply
- Phase E: The asset breaks out, leaving the trading range, and the markup is obvious to everyone in the market.
Counterarguments
- While Ethereum seems to consolidate in a bull flag pattern, it currently seems to lack the strength and momentum required to break through the resistance zones, to complete its markup.
- Nonetheless, the weekly chart remains dominantly bullish
- While there is a lack of momentum on the shorter time frames, it could be said that Ethereum has secured its significant support levels
- It could also be said that the Wyckoff Accumulation is taking place within the support zone of the weekly chart, indicating signs of bullishness.
Conclusion
While it's difficult to rely solely on the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics for a clear picture of where Ethereum is headed next, it definitely help shed light on the price movement from an alternative perspective. Given that more volume flows into Ethereum, and the trend is supported by strength and volume, we could see the accumulation complete with a markup.
TOTAL2 & *Completed* Wyckoff AccumulationBackground
This post is based on the Wyckoff Method, created by Richard Wyckoff after he reviewed how "whales" interacted with macro stocks/markets.
Lots of good information can be found here: school.stockcharts.com
The specific Schematic we focus on here is found at: school.stockcharts.com
Chart Analysis:
It appears that TOTAL2, the Market Cap of Crypto Alt Coins, has recently completed Wyckoff Accumulation and is currently undergoing a Wyckoffian SOS or "Sign of Strength". If accurate, this would indicate that the Composite Man, the marionettist of macro markets, is leaving the accumulation phase and beginning his macro markup campaign.
To illustrate the importance of this structure (the completed Accumulation), I've included one of my favorite examples: Bitcoin during late 2015. As can be seen, the structures of 2015 Bitcoin & 2018-2020 TOTAL2 are extremely similar. Additionally, while Bitcoin underwent its accumulation for ~8 months, TOTAL2 has spent almost 2 full years completing its pattern. Whether this will lead to a *more* significant markup than Bitcoin underwent (~100X from the lows) remains to be seen. This is, however, a reasonable assumption due to the length of time spent in accumulation.
Some good questions to follow up on:
1) Are there specific Alts that match this pattern or do all Alts suggest markup?
2) Do only Alt/USD charts look appetizing through a Wyckoffian lens? Or perhaps Alt/BTC as well?
3) Are there examples of failed Wyckoff Accumulation? Should we be cautious?
I plan on exploring each of these questions ^. Follow me on each of my platforms to keep up to date.
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Update - Is BNB ready for the next leg up?Hi traders and thank you for joining this Set-up update. My name is Shayan and I'm primarily a Wyckoff trader.
We've been following the BNB price action Since Sept 1st, and boy has it been a great ride!!
We are now at a scary level where the crypto market is susceptible to continue the bear trend. But since BNB has been leading, instead of a test of spring we have a test of Backing up Action (BU)
In this analysis, I will once again take a step back and start at the weekly level to see how we've fared so far:
On the bearish side: we could be having an analog of the 2019 price action, where we continue to push higher and then fail as an Upthrust (UT)
On the other hand, if we soon create another trading range and absorb the supply + create a causality for the next leg up, we can go even beyond the $38 ATH!
The Eliott Wave count below will show that we have successfully finished a 5 wave impulse, with wave 5 hitting the 1.618 Fib level of Wave 3 PA.
This should make us ready for possibly a zigzag with a deep and aggressive correction with ABC structure.
This idea is on board with the Backing Up action (BU) geometry of a Wyckoffian reaccumulation range as discussed in more details below: (this is the title chart)
From the chart above we can see that we possibly have a trading range for the larger BU.
The trading range would create the causality we're looking for for the next leg up
And lower tests toward $28 or even $25.5 could give us more opportunities to buy low!
The backing up action OF the backing up action will be my main entry!
That's it for BNB, I'll be making an update for my LEND set-up next and a video looking at the crypto market as a whole in the next couple of days!
Be sure to follow me in order to stay up to date with the price action :)
If you liked my analysis or are following through, please give it a thumbs up! I put a lot of work in my analysis and your support will let TradingView know my articles are helpful!
Good luck and till next time traders!
(Part I) EUR/USD Top-Down analysis with Wyckoff and Elliott WaveHi Traders and welcome to this analysis. My name is Shayan and today I will be taking a detailed look at EUR price action vs. USD.
I use Eliott Wave (EW) to better find out our location in the market cycle, and get a sense of possible wave counts,
but my main focus is on Wyckoff based Supply and Demand Analysis
In part 1, today, we will look at the monthly and weekly views to establish the long-term and medium-term trends,
and we will study the daily and 4H PA in a future post in order to create multiple set-ups, so stay tuned!
Let's start with a long term view of the market, starting year 2000:
We can see a clear 5 wave impulse ending with the 2008 market depression. And the 3 wave correction that follows.
As per EW guideline, the correction is bound within a corrective channel, and has traveled to the 0.236 Fib level of the preceding impulse
Let's look at the correction in more details:
There are two themes at play here:
1 - The corrective count: ABC created by a zigzag + a weak ABC (or wave X) before conception of new impulse + holding wave 2 of the preceding impulse
2 - We have hit the long-term target of a long-term classical formation (the apex) and have not been able to commit below this level (the blue ribbon)
Both these themes are constructive and point to higher prices
Now that we have an idea of the possible wave count, let's take a more detailed look using Wyckoff supply and demand analysis: (this is the title chart)
This chart is annotated in sequence, so you can start with number 1 in the left side and follow the price action.
As I mentioned in #7 above, there is a possibility that price resolves lower and created a Backing Up action (BU) at around 1.15 - 1.16. This could confirm the
uptrend continuation or fail and test a lower level.
Our targets are for now previous swing highs at 1.25 and 1.4.
I will also add a PnF based target in the next article to have a more reliable metric for targetting!
So that's it for today. Our long-term and medium-term trends are up, but short-term is not so clear yet. A test of lower levels is possible, or
on a more bullish view, this could lead to a vertical absorption and skip the correction!
If you liked my analysis or are following through, please give it a thumbs up! I put a lot of work in my analysis and your support will let TradingView know my articles are helpful!
Litecoin's Sign of Strength is Near - Buy (Wyckoff Idea)The 30 Min Litcoin Chart from the previous fall looks very similar to a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. These Schematics Can be found on any time frame. I have marked every point that you would see in a Wyckoff chart. We're jjust waiting on the sign of strength to "jump across the creek" Maybe have a little shake out before the distribution continues. We're at discount prices, the volume continues to gte lower and lower. Find a dip and go long. Any Wyckoffian's out there have any input? COINBASE:LTCUSD
BTC Wyckoff AccumulationClick the link to the schematic of Wyckoff Accumulation and determine for yourself:
www.google.com
In conjunction with this, @IncomeSharks on Twitter pointed out the OBV indicator repeating the accumulation phase we experienced from May-July 2020.
twitter.com
I'm buying the dip
Fastly : Wyckoff Pattern springLooks like Fastly is at spring on Wyckoff Patterns.
Likely catalyst to push it over the last point of support could be any news from Tik Tok acquisition or a short squeeze
Link : school.stockcharts.com
Concerns,
- Head and shoulders
- High volume on red days compared to green
I'm long Fastly.
EHT/USD - 4h Wyckoff analysis, RSI-14 supportedDear Everyone,
I tried to do some Wyckoff analysis, supporting RSI-14 indicator. As RSI shows overbought and oversold areas, that could be much helpfull in recognizing the accumulation and distribution phases. And... indeed that seems to be is helpfull.
Best regards,
Paweł
LEND: Analysis and Trading PlanHi traders and welcome!
Price seems to have made a base, at least temporarily, so I want to find good opportunities and post as many as possible for you folks.
As you may know, Aave's LEND was one of the leaders of the previous leg up, so it's definitely worth paying attention to
I've outlined the analysis on the chart as you guys seemed to like that style best. Make sure you start with number 1 and then go through the rest of the annotations.
Now that you're caught up with Price Action (PA), let's take a look at possible price scenarios:
The reversal action of the tests is where I would be buying. The green arrows would have the highest probability of a continuation but a more limited Risk:Reward
That's it! I'll be posting updates as PA unfolds to keep you guys updated! Follow me to get updates as I post new analysis!
Please don't forget to give a thumbs up and be sure to post your entries and ideas in the comment section below!
Good luck and till next time traders!