BTC Back to the Main TrendAccording to my analytical view, BTC is already in the Demand Zone position, with the Average Price at 38169, and has been rejected on the Daily Moving Average (WMA-1000) line. And also forming the Second Leg of the Wyckoff Pattern (H4 Timeframe). Thus, it’s expected that BTC will return to its main trend, which is going up.
Wyckoffaccumulation
Rune's potential accumulation, now in Phase DLooking good, adding some labels for better explanation. Being a RE-accumulation after the fomo/hype sell off top, the labels begin with typical distribution labels. IF all goes well, volume will drop off as the price set's a last point of support, we should then see a sign of strength leaving the range, most likely a back up to creek edge, and then a continuation. Let's watch and see.
DOT Sign of Strength RallyThe DOT price has been observed in a horizontal re-accumulation trading range from Jan 21, 2022 to the present. The DOT price is pushing up against the trading range resistance in what appears to be an SOS rally.
I will make a long entry in this presumed SOS rally (around $21.5) and take profit around the next resistance cluster around $28. I may add to the position at the BU/LPS.
The upper and lower boundaries of the re-accumulation trading range are given by the horizontal black lines. Blue arrows mark volume spikes.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (AR), change of character (CHoCH), sign of weakness (SOW), failed upthrust (FUT), selling climax (SC), sign of strength (SOS), back up (BU), last point of support (LPS), last point of supply (LSPY).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
DOT's accumulation behaviorTaking SC as the boundary to start the interval calculation, DOT has shown many positive volume and price events, the more obvious low-level and huge turnover with effort and causal deviation, and the rush for supply in the second test. After the spring, the price revealed a strong holding behavior, indicating that the floating supply has been largely cleared.We can expect to see a LPS which is the best buying point to test the trend. If it falls below the vertical demand column, it means that the marketmaker still intend to continue to suppress the price and extend the shock range.
CAN Megaphone and Wyckoff Accumulation PatternCAN is printing a Broadening Bottom Megaphone pattern on the CAN daily chart; the RSI looks to be increasing on the price lows indicating increased momentum.
Zooming out it also looks like an accumulation pattern has been forming over the past several months.
The megaphone may work as the "Spring / Test" stages for Phase C if it plays out and bring the price back up into the recent trading range.
If the Megaphone breaks down, then it may be a take a while to climb back.
I am not a financial advisor or professional trader by and stretch, so please do your own research.
Rune looking hopefulIt's a beautiful view on the weekly. Decreasing volume over the whole trading range, then a spring-like pop at the end just recently. Currently testing the MA200 and a break out of the COG (bottom) looks likely if the MA200 is broken. Dunno, I like it though. I think we have a potential accumulative scheme over this whole structure and I expect a test to the top of the structure in the coming weeks/months.
Combining wyckoff's theory with ONCHAIN data"This is a hypothesis that needs more testing to be more precise."
Wyckoff's theory t is one of the most influential theories of market expression, and the most important components of which are lateral movement areas and trends. This theory turns the graph into something like Dots and lines (stations and paths). But it is not as easy to use as written in books. After getting acquainted with Wyckoff's theory, I read several books on the subject, hoping that they could help me identify this area of lateral movement, the area of accumulation, or distribution. But there was a fundamental drawback. It is challenging to diagnose this issue. In fact, the rules discussed in these books are highly interpretive and subjective, and two different individual traders may come to exactly opposite conclusions based on their interpretation.
But as I became more familiar with the onchain analysis, an idea came to my mind that might be useful for more objectively recognizing charts based on Wyckoff's theory.
Composite Man: Wyckoff proposed a theory to help understand price movements in stocks. this is the “Composite Man” theory. (The same concept of whales or strong hands.)
he said: “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
In fact, composite Man is a hypothetical man who has so much money and stocks that when he wants he can gradually increase the price by buying stocks and creating demand, and when the price goes high enough he selles his stock and lower the price. The composite man is the main player in the market. Wyckoff says that if you want to make a good profit from the market, figure out what a composite man game is.
In fact, having a way of showing us where the Composite Man is in the market, can help us understand future trends
Who are the strong hands in the cryptocurrency market? (I use the strong hand word here instead of the composite man)
There are those who buy or sell more per capita than other market participants (retailers).
To understand this in the bitcoin market, I have used 3 charts and concepts:
1- Sending Addresses: The number of coins addresses making inflow transactions to the exchange.
Indicates the number of sellers' wallets (number of sellers)
2- buyers Addresses: The number of coins addresses making outflow transactions from the exchange.
Indicates the number of buyers' wallets (number of buyers)
3- Pay attention to this issue: the volume of transactions shows both the volume of sales and the buy (Volume of buy and sale is equal in the market)
Considering the above 3 issues, it can be concluded:
- If the number of Receiving Addresses is higher than the Sending Addresses (the number of people who bought compared to the number of those who sold), it indicates that more people bought and fewer people sold (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) So the sellers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the composite man is on the sales side.
- If the number of Sending Addresses is higher than the Receiving Addresses (number of people who have sold more than the number of people who have bought), it indicates that more people have been sellers and fewer people have been buyers (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) so the buyers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the Composite man is on the buying side.
To do this, the oscillator at the bottom of the chart divides the Number of Receiving Addresses by the Number of Sending Addresses. Numbers above 1.2 indicate that the Composite man is on the side of the sellers and should expect a price reduction in the future.
Values below 1 (or 1.2) indicate that the Composite man is on the buyers side. And we should expect price increases in the future.
BTC-USDT Accumulation zone(Wyckoff phases-phase C)Would continue my previous two posts,bitcoin price now in phase(C)what we know about this phase???
Phase C:
During phase C, spring (shakeout)the price below the support level of the trading range quickly reverses and moves back into the trading range.You can consider spring as a period of the coin below the support zone to attract traders and investors.Its a final attempt to purchase the coin at the lowest rates before the rates rise again.its also notable that the bear trap attracts inexperienced investors to sell coins at low rates and wait the dump which evantually does not occur and price instead rise from that point without actually reaching that dumping point.In simple terms, spring (shakeout)is not always useful as trading volume remains unpredictable.
BTC in wyckoff accumulation patternMaybe BTC is in an Wyckoff accumulation pattern on the daily timefrime. The range is between 33-46k, the upper zone is 42-46k, the lower is rise from 35k.
If the upper zone test will success, we are ok... if not, we go to under 30-32k levels again, and the monthly chart and MA lines are not so good.
GBPJPY Counter-Trend Trade 08/03/2022There is a Daily area of Demand that price is heading towards. Price has recently created a new swing low on the 4h timeframe and I am looking for a upwards LTF BOS which will signify a pullback may occur within the swing structure. There is a 4 hour area of Supply that caused price to break past the weak 4h low.
Wyckoff gives positive signNo SC, no apparent secondary testing. But price action at support and resistance still justifies the direction of the big-money's preference and bias of our market. The most important basis for bullish accumulation comes from the moderate decline at the top without volume, in addition the shocking behavior of the bottom telling a rebound. Combining the above events, we have reason to believe that big capital is trying to control the low-priced selling chips, ready to bring the price to a higher level...
Could be this scenario? BTC ULTIMATE WYCKOFF On the BTC graph we have a beautiful scheme of accumulation wyckoff.
The data and chart appear to be bullish and extreme volatility can fundamentally be expected in the coming weeks. The ongoing war allows you to speed up the cycle. The Fed will certainly raise interest rates. In this case, I encounter 2 positive and 2 negative points against each other. What can it be in the end? Let us remember that the market mainly needs liquidity. So stay alert and don't let yourself be soothed for $ 20 and $ 100,000 for BTC. The truth is sometimes in between.
Wish Wyckoff showtimeResults were as expected and clearly belong to the previous management team.No no point for the current team to show any improvements. As stated by the newly appointed team the real turnaround results should be visible somewhere in Q2 2022, so for Q1, I expect a Wyckoff accumulation. Retail is so depressed and tired that eventually nobody will be left except me.
Points looking forward
1. Cash on hand $1b, plenty of time for a turnaround, 0 debt.
2. New C-level executives must prove themselves+receive stock bonuses, so their serious effort is granted.
3. Logistics revenue up 45% YoY, when ad spending resumes this should rocket because shipping times will fall dramatically = happy customers
4. Bad merchants are cleared away, quality is improving slowly but steady = happy customers
5. New redesign in platform launching soon = happy customers
6. Institutional accumulating more and more
7. Everybody(retail) is getting tired and is at a loss of -50% or more, now it's time for a slow death. If markets go up then other stocks will fly and this one will keep accumulating making everyone nervous and anxious, so in the end, everybody will be gone.
My targets for this year
Q1 : $3-3.50
Q2 : $5-7.5
Q3 : $9-12
Q4: $15
My targets for 2023,2024,2025
1. $22
2. $32
3. $60
Stay safe and always have a plan.