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USOIL - WTI oil peaked and now it is headed lowerFor the past year, we were predominantly bullish on USOIL. However, this came to a change recently, and we turned neutral to bearish on USOIL. That is due to Strategic Petroleum Reserves being released in vast quantities, production hike talks, and the eventual need to lower energy prices. Therefore, despite the general bullish narrative, we make a contrarian case for the lower cost of oil. Indeed, we would like to set a long-term price for USOIL to 90 USD per barrel. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows USOIL on the daily time frame. It also shows the resistance at a slope (white line) and the bullish breakout above it (indicated by the yellow arrow). We will look for a potential breakdown in price and invalidation of the bullish breakout. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and MACD are neutral. However, MACD needs to be observed for potential bullish crossover above 0 points in the following days. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area, although it points to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX indicates the trend is weak. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI continues to develop a bearish structure. However, for the past three weeks, RSI started to flatten, making it neutral. MACD also started to flatten, making it neutral too. DM+ and DM- are bullish. ADX seems to have peaked; indeed, ADX started to decline, which suggests that the bullish trend of a higher degree is weakening. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
6
USOIL Potential for Bearish Momentum | 14th April 2022Price is on a bearish momentum. We expect a potential for bearish dip from sell entry level of 104.65 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 97.98 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, if price breaks through the pivot structure, it might rise towards to the stop loss level of 108.76 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
TVC:USOILShort
by Rockqet
Crude Oil Idea Nr_one (WTI)Hello Traders This is my opinion on Crude Oil. The price is at strong resistance: - Trendline --> Dec./ Jan. Highs & Jan.- Mar. Lows - 78.6 Fib --> Mar. Rally - Resistance --> 1 & 4 April Lows - 50 Day EMA @ 99.29 - Descending Triangle on Price and TDI (RSI) The price will probably push back from strong resistance I mentioned, between ~98 & ~99 and move lower till the 50% Fib. support at 95.90 and the triangle support + the March low at 93.50. A break through will give the price more downside Momentum till the support levels below: - Oct. / Nov. highs @ ~85 - 161.8 Fib. Retracement --> March Rally - Very Strong Support between ~ 75 & ~77 --> 78.6 Fib. Retracement from March highs + Oct. '18 & Jul. '21 highs + 2022 Open Long-term I think the price will go higher again up to the 2008 high @ ~150 maybe more.
TVC:USOIL
by FiXTUX
2
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially rally during the trading session on Thursday to retest the 50 Day EMA and of course the previous uptrend line. Because of this, it looks as if the downtrend is intact, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before crude oil breaks rather significantly, perhaps reaching the $95 level early during the session on Friday, and maybe even breaking down below there. If we do break down below that level, then I will be targeting the $90 level. The market is going to be concerned about the fact that gasoline demand is dropping, which of course is a situation where perhaps the market had gotten so far ahead of itself that it forgot that the “cure for higher prices is higher prices.” As the world looks likely to head into recession, this is weighing upon the crude oil market because it will drive demand down. There is a structural problem with supply over the longer term, but perhaps a recession might give the oil industry a chance to catch up. As we had been locked down due to the pandemic, it is not a huge surprise that when the economy opened up around the world that the demand shock pulled prices much higher. Now that it looks like the tide is turning, we may see oil drop rather significantly. On the upside, if we were to take out the top of the Wednesday candlestick, then it is possible that the WTI Crude Oil market could go higher, perhaps reaching the $110 level, maybe even the $115 level. All things have been equal, it looks as if oil is starting to lose its mojo, making lower highs along the way. As long as that is going to be the case, then I think that you continue to fade rallies, but you should keep in the back of your mind that oil markets have been extraordinarily volatile, especially with the Russian supply essentially being taken off of the open market. The US dollar has its influence as well, but this market has been rather strong for a while, and now it looks like it is finally running out of momentum. When a market gets parabolic the way this one did, it quite often is a sign of significant overextension.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SmoothJB
WTIUSD OIL bearish mediumtermWTIUSD OIL bearish WTI broke below a key long-term pennant that had been squeezing the price action earlier in the week, with some technicians taking this as a sign that WTI will fall back towards support in the $90 area. Projection would be 60. But on Mediumterm i think we will have conditions to go to 93.50 or 90.00. Would be our targets. I will be a false breakout we will recover to retest ma50 4h near 102 area. For now seems we retested today the pennant and we have conditions to have an impulse to the downside. Targets. Supports, Resistances on chart. I will love to read your comments. Please put a like, join use following and give us your comment. Be carefull, patient and discipline. ❗ DISCLAIMER ❗ This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss. Only you can be responsible for your trading. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. This Plan can be changed anytime, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not. So please don't just blindly follow this. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage. Legal Risk Disclosure Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. The FX market is a quickly changing environment and it requires full focus on the levels for the precise entry with low risk.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by miketiger
USDWTI : INTRADAY VIEWWTI is been consolidating b/w 99-106 and avoiding volitlty since 3 days. But when you look at chart it clearly state that there is strong support and a trend line i.e helping wti sustain above 99. WHAT DOES CHART SAY FOR TODAY(INTRADAY) WTI can take a small dip again to 99-100 taking support and will sustain above the trend line underlying at 98.5 HOW TO TRADE PROFITABLE TODAY? I would suggest buy on dip would be great deal for today. As after taking the support of trend line at 99-100 WTI may enter into uptrend and will change its dynamics from consolidation to Bullish A-B-C patter. You can take a small quantity at 99.5 the accumulating quantity on every dip would be a great DEAL for LONG traders. And for INTRADAY traders 105 would be Profit booking price.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by GIRISH-NAVANI
3
USOIL (Crude OIL) /WTI Full Top Down AnalysisAfter rising paraboilically in past few weeks, USOIL completed a multi year W pattern and fell down for a correction. After a parabolic move, a market usually falls down to a shallow target level and tries to consolidates a bit before retesting few levels and making its move again in further correction. WTI (Crude Oil) is in the second stage of it. It is right now consolidating on higher time frames and is trying to test few levels before it starts to fall again. In this Crude Oil Analysis & Forecast Updates - WTI (USOIL) Technical Analysis For April 05, 2022 we will see the scenarios which may come in the play while trading USOIL. Market conditions are still not very good and we have a new quarter along with new week starting. So trade what you are comfortable with. Do not rush into trades. Trade what you see and ignore any hypes. Stay objective. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:USOIL
by vikinsa
2
WTI bulls step in with price holding back above $100bblsThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Wednesday to break above the top of the candlestick from Tuesday. If you remember, the Tuesday candlestick was what I referred to as a potential “binary trade”, meaning that if we can break above it, the market could go higher. After all, the neutral candlestick suggests that we are in the midst of trying to figure out whether or not momentum will pick up. Now that we have broken decisively to the upside, the market looks very likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $120 level. Given enough time, we could go all the way to the $130 level yet again. The market has been very bullish, but I do not want to see some type of parabolic move, because as you can see, we had recently had one of those, which of course fell apart quite drastically. There is only a certain amount of momentum that can come into a market without it falling apart, so the sustainability of the uptrend is what I am looking for. Looking at the chart, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $96.55 level and climbing. As long as we can stay above this indicator, it does suggest that we are still in an uptrend. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so I think we will continue to see buyers on every short-term dip. The market has been very noisy but has also been decidedly positive. I have no scenario in which I am willing to short the oil market anytime soon, so looking at dips as potential buying opportunities will continue to be the way to approach the market. That being said, we will eventually run into “demand destruction”, but I do not think we are anywhere near that right now. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has quite a bit of upward mobility to it, especially as the war in Ukraine rages on. The lack of Russian oil on the open market is going to continue to cause issues, but inflation itself is reason enough to think that oil should continue to go higher. Regardless, this is a market that continues to offer plenty of opportunities for those willing to be patient enough to find value. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the US gave written guarantees that Western sanctions against the country will not impact future trade with Iran, CNBC reported on 18 March. After hovering lower for two weeks, Brent briefly returned to above $120/bbl on 25 March on reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels – backed by Iran – launched fresh attacks on Saudia Arabia. The attack hit Saudi Aramco’s oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh. WTI also rose to above $114/bbl on the day. The man who predicted crude oil $120 in 2020 when crude was at $30 alltime low The EIA raised the trading price of Crude oil by $22 per barrel to an average of $105.22 per barrel in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $101.17 per barrel. The higher price projection includes concerns about supply disruptions and additional sanctions as a result of Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Brent is expected to fall to $88.98 per barrel post-2022, whereas WTI will fall to $84.98 per barrel. The EIA emphasized, however, that the price projection is ‘very unpredictable’, as actual price outcomes will be determined by the severity of Russia’s sanctions, any new potential sanctions, and the impact of individual business actions. In 2020, during the COVID outbreak, the event suddenly draws Crude & Brent oil prices. The crude oil (WTI) starts falling from $65/barrel to $19/barrel. The continuous fall frightens investors all over the globe. But, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), who is also an entrepreneur & investor at that time publicly said on his YouTube video that crude will touch($90-$100) soon due to macroeconomic conditions which central banks created by putting interest rates at an all-time low. Ankit said in 2020, due to this petrol prices will touch Rs.100 first time in India. In 2022, he seems indeed right. Today petrol prices all over India almost hit Rs.100 due to an international price hike in Brent oil. Today also his video is still available on his YouTube platform which he created by the name of ‘Market Maestroo’. This video he released on Dec.25 2020. One can check it as a fact as well. He is one of the only Wealth Managers in the Globe who predicted a rise in Crude oil & only economist in India who predicted Rs100/litre of petrol. Apart from this, his many predictions in recent times come true which also become the centre of attraction for many investors. He also predicted inflation is coming & USA inflation may touch 10%. Today Feb 2022, USA inflation is sitting at 30 year high of 8%. After such successful predictions, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), now started gaining popularity & limelight. One of his famous quote in investing is “Investing is done with a calm mind, not to calm your mind WTI oil outlook: Oil hits $130 per barrel on fears that Russian energy products WTI bulls move in as US and EU move towards sanctioning Russia further. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) does little to cool down supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday on persisting supply concerns as Russian energy sanctions are very much on the table following the Russian forces' civilian killings in north Ukraine. For a fresh high of the day, at $103.82. WTI spot is up by some 4.5% as White House's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, announced that the US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia. Sullivan said that they have concluded Russia has committed war crimes, Bucha offers further evidence to support that, pointing to a protracted war. '' Ukraine-Russia conflict may not be just a few more weeks, could be months.'' Ukraine’s top prosecutor has said 410 bodies had been found in towns recaptured from retreating Russian forces around Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes. The weekend media reported mass killings of civilians in the town of Bucha which had been under Russian occupation until recently. The reports led to an array of calls from within the European Union for the bloc to go further in punishing Moscow. Consequently, a fifth package of sanctions against Russia is being arranged with the new round of measures expected to be approved later this week. Meanwhile and despite the release of 180-million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an agreement last week from members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release some of their own strategic reserves, oil is firmer due to the persistence of geopolitical concerns. "The global oil market remains in deep deficit of likely 1.5 mb/d over the last 4 weeks, before the loss of Russian supply even started, with global inventories at their lowest levels in recent history on a demand-adjusted basis and with limited OPEC and shale elasticity in months to come. Demand destruction requires higher prices, yet this dynamic is being nullified by increased government interventions in cutting gasoline taxes," Goldman Sachs said in a report. ''Indeed, while the SPR release can quell near-term tightness concerns, it does not solve the longer-term issues in the crude market. Structural deficit conditions could still persist down the road as these reserves will need to be replenished at a time when global spare capacity and inventory levels will still be stretched,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''In this sense, the right tail in energy markets is set to remain structurally fat as depleted reserves would add to the existing risks of self-sanctioning, stretched spare capacity across OPEC+, constrained shale production, an uncertain Iran deal and OECD inventories at their lowest since the Arab Spring. We expect this vast array of supply risks to remain the driving force in the energy market.''
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DaveBrascoFX