WTI (Crude Oil)
WTICOUSD - Oil weekly. Is oil ready to pivot?4/17/2020 OIL weekly chart
All the talking heads are saying how the C-19 virus destroyed the Oil and etc.
The truth is the oil peaked in 2008 and it is looking to be completing a 5 wave structures down.
Currently the oil is in 19 handle
I can see Oil may go down to the 17 handle
I can also say see that Oil met the minimum requirement to begin moving up from this area.
EVERYONE was bullish when oil was $130-$140
EVERYONE is bearish now when WTI is $19.xx and USO is at $4
WTI TA & FA, targets explained.. - Epic RR 19:57:19 (UTC) Considering adding at these levels to an existing long position. I don't think that the teens will be met. I think $20/bbl will hold. If it doesn't, then it is manipulation of price virtually, as here in Texas the Permian basin is solid and in fine shape compared to Canadian heavy barley getting 4$ bids. I see this is more of a fundamental investment rather than a swing trade at this point. Proper risk management is always applied, with a per risk trade of 2% max; negating a failed account in the long-run of a thousand trades.
Bullish arguments: include cuts from open assuring a $20 spot market. Cuts from OPEC+ and other producers mean that a unilateral bottom has been agreed on.
Suppliers control this market with the flip of a switch (lertaly). My target for May of this year is $41/bbl. The drop in demand has been forced. Fundamentally, anyone who's traded in a market with forced demand/supply knows how to handle this.
Bearish argument:
Slow down in demand.. obvious. The suppression is forced, and those that weren't leveraged and had good cash flow going into the year with adequate solvency are fine. It's the ones that were desperate for gain that want to see Oil to 0$. Of course, it already has been trading negative in parts of the world that don't have the infrastructure to maintain profit with these prices.
According to my source 4$/bbl in Canada is enough to break-even. While firing and downsizing. The infrastructure for heavy crude in Canada is expensive and can't just be towed off of the lot like it can here in Texas. Bears shouldn't be worried about WTI, they should be looking at Brent and heavy Canadian.
19:59:32 (UTC)
Tue Apr 14, 2020
WTICOUSD ends the fall.WTICOUSD ends the fall. If you look at the oil timeframe for seven weeks, you can see that the decreasing wave sequences are 75% on a logarithmic scale. Let's start with this rule system. Currently, 75% of the WTICOUSD descending sequence is 18,086 usd. This is what I see as the target price for the decline. From this level, I don't expect to move further south. These were the decreasing (white) wave sequences. It is also interesting to examine the magnitude of the response to the decreasing wave sequences. Well, it's also almost geometrically accurate at 209% size. Then use this as a rising target price. Short. I assume that, due to the fractal sequence rules described above, WTICOUSD turns north from level 18,086usd. The rise may be continuous. The rise target price is 54.28 usd
WTICOUSD for Late Comers :)WTICOUSD for Late Comers :) I assume the WTICOUSD 2x D1ATR can turn south and start corrective motion. I look forward to the correction movement to the top level of the 1x D1ATR at 32.52usd. Therefore, from this level (thick yellow line) it is possible to enter a long position. Target price 43.76 usd.