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Crude oil drops on demand concerns After yesterday’s sharp drop, crude oil prices extended their losses first thing this morning, before bouncing off their lows. Oil was already under pressure on fears about demand following the weaker Chinese industrial data that was released on Tuesday and the larger crude build in the US as was reported by API on Tuesday. But prices fell about 3% after official data from the EIA showed a build of 2.7 million barrels on Wednesday, its fourth weekly build. The fact that these macro factors pushed crude oil below key short-term support at around the $84.00 - $84.50 area, this gave rise to further technical selling. Still, with the Middle East situation at the forefront of investors’ minds, the downside could be limited from here. At the time of writing, WTI was testing a key support area just below the $82 handle. Middle East concerns should keep downside limited Today we haven’t heard anything new related to the situation between Iran and Israel. UK’s foreign secretary and former prime minister David Cameron visited Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu to help prevent escalation on Wednesday. Cameron said: "We hope that anything Israel does is as limited and as targeted and as smart as possible. It's in no-one's interest that we see escalation and that is what we said very clearly to all the people I've been speaking to here in Israel." However, Netanyahu wasn’t having it, telling Cameron that Israel would "make its own decisions" over how to respond to Iran’s attack, vowing to do everything necessary to defend the nation. So, there was no fresh support for oil concerning potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, leaving traders to concentrate on other factors. They realised that the demand outlook for oil is not so rosy after all. Demand concerns arose after weaker economic data was released from China on Tuesday, while the possibility of prolonged higher interest rates are also casting a shadow on the global economic recovery, and thus the oil demand outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent more hawkish stance has tempered hopes for significant rate cuts this year, potentially leading to a slowdown in economic growth, which could further dampen the outlook for oil demand. With the US dollar has surging to a five-month high this week, this is amplifying the cost of oil for foreign buyers. Still, the decline in oil prices is likely to be limited. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Israel's response to Iran's recent weekend attacks, is something that could support prices and push them higher in the event of a strong counterattack by Israel. WTI technical levels to watch While the short-term trend for oil may not appear bullish, the longer-term bullish technical outlook remains intact, and will remain that way until we see a major lower low form. Wednesday’s selling got a boost after prices fell below the technically important $84.00 - $84.50 support area. This $84.00 - $84.50 region is now key in terms of potential resistances to watch moving forward. The next key support level to watch is just below the $82 area on WTI, where the last rally around the end of last month started. Below here is the longer-term bullish trend line that comes in around the $80.00 area or so. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst with Forex.com Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Oil Prices: Geopolitical Tensions and Market DynamicsOil prices have once again surged, reaching nearly $88.00 per barrel, despite a recent minor decline. This uptick in prices is occurring amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and a strengthening US Dollar. However, amidst this volatility, it's essential to dissect the various factors influencing oil prices, from geopolitical unrest to economic forecasts and technical indicators. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions often act as a catalyst for oil price volatility. Conflicts in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains and lead to uncertainty in the market. Recent geopolitical events have heightened concerns, contributing to the surge in oil prices. However, it's crucial to note that while geopolitical factors can trigger short-term spikes, their long-term impact is contingent on broader market dynamics and economic fundamentals. Impact of Economic Forecasts and Electric Vehicle Market Growth: The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revised its oil demand forecast for the current year and the next, citing a lackluster economic outlook and the growing market share of electric vehicles (EVs). This adjustment underscores the evolving landscape of energy consumption, with EVs exerting pressure on traditional oil demand. As such, forecasts of slower growth in oil demand highlight the need for adaptability within the energy sector. Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies: Technical analysis plays a pivotal role in navigating oil price fluctuations. Assessing indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Fibonacci levels provides insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. Currently, the confluence of signals, including RSI divergence and overbought conditions, suggests caution. Additionally, the absence of a significant retracement to the 78.6% Fibonacci level warrants a strategic approach to setting stop-loss levels and identifying potential entry points. US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Differentials: The recent rally in the US Dollar Index (DXY) underscores market expectations of a widening interest-rate differential between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks. This divergence in monetary policy influences currency movements and has implications for commodities priced in dollars, such as oil. Understanding the interplay between currency dynamics and oil prices is essential for informed decision-making in trading and investment strategies. In addition to fundamental and technical analyses, seasonality patterns offer valuable insights into market behavior. By examining historical price trends during specific times of the year, traders can identify recurring patterns and optimize their trading strategies accordingly. Incorporating seasonality analysis alongside other analytical tools enhances the robustness of decision-making processes and mitigates risks associated with market volatility.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by FOREXN1
3
Oil could go to $90 and higher if this happens...Since the eruption of the war between Hamas and Israel in early October 2023, we have been occasionally reporting on some of the developments in the oil-rich region. In one of the more recent articles, we outlined how Israel’s deadly airstrike against Iranian generals in Damascus, Syria, was likely to provoke retaliation from Iran and its proxies. On Saturday, Iran followed through and launched a large-scale attack on Israel. Per media reports, Iran sent approximately 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles, most of which were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace with the help of Israel’s allies, including the United States. The attack sparked a discussion of retaliatory strike against Iran within Israel’s war cabinet, with officials not being able to agree on a timeline. Initially, it was announced Israel would reciprocate aggression in a window of 24 to 48 hours. However, just shortly before the futures market opened on Monday, Israel’s officials backtracked their plans, noting the country was not looking for significant escalation of the conflict while leaving a possibility of payback on the table. Besides the attack, there was also news concerning Iran’s seizure of the Israel-linked MV MSC Aries cargo ship (operated by Geneva-based Mediterranean Shipping Company and owned by Gortal Shipping) off the Strait of Hormuz. At the moment, it does not seem very probable there will be some sort of disruption to cargo or tankers transiting through the area, but keep in mind that about 21 million barrels per day were transiting through here in 2022, which is about three times more than oil passing through the Red Sea before the start of the Israel-Hamas War. All in all, the geopolitical situation in the region progresses from bad to worse, carrying many unknowns. But judging by how things are unfolding, there is a high chance of a conflict passing beyond a point of no return, which, in turn, has profound implications for the oil market and could see the oil price rise above $90 per barrel (and potentially to the upper $90 per barrel). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
Oil traders are making big bets..ooh, no...not really so🛢🔴Oil traders are making big bets amid geopolitical uncertainties! 3 million barrels worth of options contracts were snapped up by speculators, with 3,000 lots of June $250 call options in US crude oil trading for just 1 cent each. Is this a Hail Mary or a well-calculated move?🤔 (Source: www.bloomberg.com). The headline is very clickable, however let's look at the actual data from the exchange. It is evident that 25 putts were traded at the same time. This raises the question of whether oil prices will decline further or if we are facing a similar situation to March 2020. It is unclear what the player's expectations are and whether this is related to foreign policy or part of an arbitrage strategy.
TVC:USOIL
by ClashChartsTeam
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area of 88.00.Dear Colleagues, we expected the price to decline, but it seems that the upward movement is not over yet. I expect the completion of wave "5", then a corrective movement in wave "B" of higher order in the area of 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels (83.62), after which I will consider only long positions to the resistance area of 88.00. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
TVC:USOILLong
by Hellena_Trade
12
WTI Global analysis of crude oil trade The overall trend of crude oil bottomed out yesterday and rebounded. The MA5 position of the weekly line fell back and rebounded, and the middle track of the daily line did not break below. This shows that the market is still strong. In addition, the conflict between Iran and Israel will boost crude oil, so it is good to be bullish. After all, the current situation in the Middle East is a mess. Crude oil has once again returned to the old point to see a rise, that is, go long around 85, add positions at 84.5, defend 84, and look at 86-87!
TVC:USOILLong
by Jerome-Leon
Continuation of the bullish bounce?WTI oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support. Could this commodity continue to rise towards the 1st resistance? Pivot: 84.99 1st Support: 83.52 1st Resistance: 87.77 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by ICmarkets
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 85.05 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 83.50 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support. Take profit is at 87.30 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
Too many dangerous dollars on handsFundamentals & Sentiment WTI: In general, there are global drivers for oil demand, amongst them is supply curbs from OPEC. More recently geopolitical risks in Middle east create bias for oil upside. USD: The dollar has been overbought according to CFTC reports. The risk of BoJ intervention is still there, so it's better not buy dollars anyhow as long as USDJPY is near 155. Also, today's US MoM Retail Sales are expected to be worse than last month - a good environment to trade into the event. If the Retail Sales come out stronger than expected, it's better to close the position or tighten stops. Technical & Other - According to seasonals DXY should stay flat for the next 3 weeks - WTI sold off sharply on Friday, so the mean reversion of that move makes sense. Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: UP Long-term: Uptrend Min target: range highs Risk: 0.77% Entry: Market
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Cherry94
WTI/Oil 4h Technical Analysis during IranVSIsrael warDespite Iran's attack on Israel, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil remained stable. However, in the event of a reciprocal response from Israel to Iran within the next 24 hours, the price of oil is expected to make a significant upward jump from its long-term trend line. Currently, the price of WTI crude oil is within its supportive range on the 4-hour timeframe, and last week, it broke above a long-term daily trend line, which is now being tested with a pullback and a bearish candle which can be a fake bearish sign by geopolitics issues! The RSI is in a suitable range for buyers and playing around 44, so opening long positions on oil is the best decision at the moment. Entry: CMP at 84.7 - 85 even TP: 92.627 TP: 98.34 TP:106.52 TP: ATH Around 168
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Money_Hedge
Potential bullish bounce?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is trading close to the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support. Could this commodity find support around this level before potentially reversing to rise towards the 1st resistance? Pivot: 85.57 1st Support: 83.22 1st Resistance: 90.40 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by ICmarkets
1
USOIL Nearing Resistance Trendline Area: Breakout or Pullback?USOIL prices have been on an upward trend in recent weeks, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The price has approached a key resistance trendline area, where a breakout or pullback could occur. If the price breaks above the resistance trendline area, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend, with potential targets at 93.21 and higher. A breakout could be fueled by further supply disruptions or escalating geopolitical tensions Alternatively, the price could pull back before breaking out. A pullback could find support at the 67-70 levels. If the price rebounds from support and breaks above the resistance trendline, it would still be considered bullish.
TVC:USOILLong
by DNP-FX
Gold & oil volatility grows amid Middle East escalationFinancial markets are bracing for the uncertainty surrounding Iran's recent strike on Israel and the potential for retaliatory measures. Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, remarked that the current situation may lead to elevated gold and oil prices, alongside lower US Treasury yields and stocks compared to what would have been expected otherwise. In the previous week, investors flocked to gold, driving it to reach new record highs. Will we see more records hit this week? Early trading this Monday Asian session has shown a gap upwards. Since April 1st, the energy market has been on edge regarding a potential Iran-Israel conflict, hinting at the likelihood of highly volatile oil trading in the upcoming week. Additionally, concerns arise over signs of Iran's inclination towards a soft blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could result in supply chain disruptions and increased oil prices. The escalating tensions may also further prompt the Federal Reserve to exercise caution in interest rate cuts, as higher oil prices could steer inflation away from the Fed's target. On Friday, the U.S. dollar index surged to its highest level since November, while the euro dipped to a five-month low against the dollar following indications from the European Central Bank of potential interest rate cuts. This broad strengthening of the dollar also drove the yen to a fresh 34-year low as investors monitored for potential intervention by Japanese monetary authorities to stabilize the currency.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILShort
by ShahedZare
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Potential Scenarios For Next Week 🛢️ Crude Oil is consolidating after a strong bullish wave. The price formed a horizontal range on a daily. Next week, wait for a breakout of one of the boundaries of the range for a confirmation. Bearish violation - a daily candle close below a support of the range, will give you a strong bearish signal. A bearish continuation will be expected to 83.0 level then. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the resistance of the range - a daily candle close above, will push the prices higher to 89.0 level. Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
7
Crude oil fluctuates and rises, and is about to go up WTI crude oil prices rose choppily despite a somewhat downbeat inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and a stronger-than-expected March consumer price index (CPI) report (which may further delay the Federal Reserve's first rate cut). The current geopolitical environment continues to provide support for oil prices. Crude oil real-time market analysis: The 4-hour upper track pressure is at the 87 mark. The daily SAR indicator has appeared at a high level and diverged downwards since yesterday. The current extension point is at the 87.5 line. The defensive resistance lies in the daily Bollinger Band upper track position of 88.1. If crude oil prices break down, focus on the 84 mark and the daily MA5 moving average of 83.5. On the whole, crude oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, and it is enough to maintain the high-sell-low-low mentality until it breaks the range. U.S. trading strategy: Crude oil is recommended to go short in batches at 86.9-87.5, stop loss if it breaks 88.2, target 86-85, hold if it breaks below 84; go long when the low hits 84.5 (±2 points) for the first time, stop loss 83.7, target 85.5 -86.2;
TVC:USOILLong
by Jerome-Leon