Wpattern
ASX (AUS200) (AUS200Cash) LONGThe Australian Stock Market index is looking very bullish, due to the double top pattern forming on the lower timeframes. The higher timeframes also signify a rally, which sets the mood for this trading signal. I would wait to see how rice would react to the 61.50 level, which represents an institutional level, and was also tested previously Then an entry would be made after this retest. Do note that the price may not retest that far as it all depends on the buying pressure. The 200 EMA is currently moving below the price in the lower timeframes, which also prepares us for buy positions. I would expect the price to rally further with the target being the height of the "W" pattern.
EURUSD = what I am anticipating right now (not predicting)This is a continuation of the earlier trading plan. Refer this trading plan for context :
If the price could go down and test 1.13600 again and the market shows its hand (in a form of a W pattern or bullish engulfing candle), I will long EURUSD.
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XBTUSD - Bulkowski's Big W - Against my biasBulkowski's Big W.
Keep in mind that we are in a long term down trend, making this riskier than usual. In fact I am bearish and short so this goes against my bias, but the possibility serves as an education for myself and documented specifically so I do not lose the chart. Enjoy.
Characteristic | Discussion
Price trend: Downward leading to the pattern.
Shape: A big W shape with twin bottoms and tall sides.
Reversal pattern: Look for a double bottom reversal pattern at the base of the big W.
Tall sides: The best performing big W chart patterns have tall, straight declines leading to the bottom of the big W.
Rise between bottoms: The rise between the valleys of the double bottom is 10% to 20% or more.
Volume: Recedes 69% of the time.
Breakout Confirmation: The pattern confirms as a valid one when price closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms.
Trading Tactic | Explanation.
Measure rule: Compute the height from the highest peak to the lowest valley (D-B) and then add the result to the price of the peak high D). The result is the target price. The link to the left gives more information about the measure rule.
Breakout: Occurs when price closes above the peak high (D).
Stall: For swing traders, buy at the double bottom low (E) and ride price upward to confirmation of the double bottom (the high between the two bottoms, D). Price often pauses there. If price drops below the low of the second bottom (E), exit the position immediately. If price confirms the double bottom, expect a rise approaching the left side high (A).
Position traders: Wait for confirmation of the double bottom before taking a position and be prepared to sell as the stock nears the price of the left side high (the price at C approaches the price at A).
See more from Bulkowski here: thepatternsite.com
In addition to the above and once again, against my bias. There is a possibility of an Adam and Eve Double Bottom here - Zoom Out:
thepatternsite.com
Divergence in RSI, a bearish sign or a bullish break-out?!Right now BTC/USD seems to be bouncing back up after a 40+ percent consolidation. The recent good news by US government officials signifies that the transition from "centralized" fiat into the "decentralized" digital block-chain is being looked upon favorably. The W pattern is becoming easier to notice and therefore attempts to react to the market will fare better.
Could this be the short term bullish break-out to 13,500 and beyond . . .
BTC-USD - Are we at the bottom?The question on everyone lips. Let's take a look at the charts.
1D Chart
Starting with the 1D to get the broad picture. Remember as well that signals on the higher charts are more reliable.
Key levels of Support/Resistance are:
11470 - Has acted as strong support and resistance on the 1HR chart between 21st Jan and 29th Jan when it finally gave way to the downside. Will now act as resistance on the way back up.
10700 - Was the bottom of the wick that ended the fall on the 22nd December. Has provided support multiple times with no daily closing below it until we dropped on the 30th January. Will also now act as resistance.
Upper Box - Indicates area of support which we are now testing. This was a bullish accumulation zone back in 28/29th November on the daily. It has been drawn wider to account for the accumulation candles on the 4HR chart at this time as below:
9232 - Was the bottom of the wick from the 17th Jan (and lowest recent low). This will act as resistance and is within the box discussed above.
Lower Box - If we drop through the upper box and the 9232 level then the price could drop to this lower region which aligns with the last significant level of accumulation (16th-24th December). There was very little volume previously between the upper and lower boxes so it may fall through as quickly as it went up.
RSI has been below 50 for a while reflecting the continued bearish sentiment. It is currently tracking down and is at 35. Will it drop further? August 2016 was the last time that the RSI fell below 30 (classic oversold zone) (Note: same date was also the last death cross on the 8HR - see below). The recovery back in May 2017 happened when RSI was at 35 which is the current level. More recent recoveries happened on the 30 (July & Sept 2017). In Nov 2017 is happened at 42 when the market sentiment was extraordinarily bullish dismiss this as an anomaly. Given that we witnessed a death cross on the 8HR recently we could potentially drop below the 30 - I would not be surprised based on this indicator.
Oscillators
200 EMA - We are currently only 7% above this key average. If we move below it then I would consider that we are officially in a bear market. We have not dropped below this since Nov 15!!
8HR Chart
The last time we had a death cross on the 8HR was way back in August 2016 (see below). At the time the cross coincided with the bottom of that drop. The bottom turned into the left side of a W pattern and the market recovered. The 50 EMA recovered to be above the 200 only 26 days later and it has been above it ever since....until now.
Fundamentals
There is ALLOT of FUD spreading going on currently with daily stories being released from South Korea, China, India, Tether. Most of these stories being published in mainstream news are out of date and seem to be being released at times that coincide with BTC price down trends. It is not a stretch to think that this is market manipulation and that institutional investors are trying to shake out weak hands.
SUMMARY
We are at key junction for $BTC. We need to see how price holds up in the upper box region and how it responds to returning to the 200 EMA. The RSI and historical volume plus all of the FUD and negativity indicate we could drop further into the lower box region - 8500 or below.
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"
This is not investment advice.
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BTCUSD two patternsHello.
Two possible patterns appeared. H&S and W. Indicators shows bull`s tendens. For the last days my forecasts were very good with the help of indicators, so i think it`s more chances to go up from that point, at least to 17k (upper bb line). Cant say will it be higher or not, because we lack of fandamental now. The threshold is ma20 at 1d tf. breaking through will mean up, bouncing will draw right shoulder.
Who`s holding - move your stop losses.
Thank you for attention:)
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Thank you for attention!
AUDCHF Channel ChangeLooks to be evidence of a channel change unfolding on AUDCHF. This level happens to be a 50% Fib retracement on Daily chart at support level. Multiple divergence confirms price action, and a W pattern seems to be setting up a long opportunity to test the top of the "new channel" with stops below.