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Wheat

Importance of resistance and long-term chartsI just had to pop this chart on here this morning – it is the CBOT monthly wheat chart. It demonstrates that no matter what your time frame that it is important to look at long term charts and it also demonstrates the importance of resistance. There are two resistance points to mention on here – the first is the 1349 2008 high and the second is the shallow parallel line I have drawn, which connects the 1977 low and the 2000 low. I shifted this line up to connect to the 1349 2008 high and this provided resistance at 1373. The market tested these twin perils in March and failed miserably. The mid-point of this range is about 810 and this where I suspect the market will head. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by The_STA
1
Wheat Heading back to $700-800 range, supply surpassed demandWheat Heading back to $700-800 range, supply has now surpassed the demand. Ukraine is now shipping wheat from Moldova and shipping out via train etc Russia is supplying Ukraine wheat from Mauripol Russia is supplying wheat to Bandladesh and a number of African countries Australia has had 20% bumper record crop being on the top 3 wheat producers Price will go back to normal now it has almost been 6 months since the war has started
FX:WHEATFShort
by smartestcookieinthejar
Rotation - After gyrationsINVESTMENT CONTEXT S&P 500 Energy Sector has registered 10-trading day decline dropping by 23.7% as fears of recession and lower demand pushed traders to liquidate longer-dated positions On June 23, all 33 of the U.S. biggest banks, some of which considered as systemically important, successfully passed the Fed's annual stress tests, confirming their ability to lend and maintain capital levels during severe economic breakdown During the summit in Brussel on June 23, Ukraine and Moldova formally received the symbolic status of "candidates" to join the European Union JPMorgan does not expect a recession to materialize over the next 12 month; according to the Bank, global growth will accelerate from 1.3% in the first half of 2022 to 3.1% in the second part of the year thanks to recovery of Chinese economy On a different note, Germany warned that Russia's move to curb natural gas deliveries to Europe could trigger an economic downfall similar to that caused by Lehman Brothers at the onset of the Great Financial Crisis Copper prices recorded 16-month low on June 23 because of growing worries about rising COVID-19 cases in China and stoking worries of a global economy recession PROFZERO'S TAKE As the world finally takes notice that there won't be a solution to the current industrial crisis unless a global strategy on energy emerges, ProfZero has witnessed the steep correction faced already by commodities just on fears of a recession. Brent crude has plunged to USD 110/boe after some bull analysts forecasted it could top its all time high at USD 147.50/boe (July 2008); iron and copper are down 30% and 17%, respectively, on a monthly basis, while also wheat prices retraced 25% from the all-time high touched on May 17. Albeit encouraging under an inflation perspective, these signs may be indicative of greater distress in commodities - hence more stringent need to quickly restructure global supply chains, particularly as soft commodities are exposed to extreme conditions (Italy drought) Growth stocks roared back on June 24, as traders unloaded Value and commodity-driven stocks repositioning in favor of the battered tech segments. ProfZero argues the move comes as investors reassess the likelihood of a recession, which would undoubtedly punish cyclical players, starting from big-ticket items (automotive, leisure operators) down to non-core consumer goods (non-food retail, handheld devices). As Growth trades still at record lows, it might be a good chance to start fishing for opportunities before the next cycle kicks-in - yet bearing in mind that within the next 2 weeks markets will still likely face volatility spikes due to June inflation reading in the U.S. (ProfZero does not expect a major slowdown yet from May's 8.6%) and Q2 earning season After Citi and Deutsche Bank located the probability of a recession in the U.S. at 50%, JP Morgan historical bull Marko Kolanovic reiterated his positive stance for a soft landing in the second half of the year, thanks to solid Chinese recovery and stabilizing geo-political conditions, including the conflict in Ukraine . As much as in May, ProfZero fails to share Mr. Kolanovic constructive tone. Although fully persuaded the war in Ukraine shall end, any tangible sign of relief for the world economy will take months to materialize. In China, President Xi has confirmed the country will achieve the 5.50% GDP growth target it set; yet, it remains to be seen then how the country will cope with its internal hurdles in real estate and rampant industrial overcapacity (steel)
by ProfZero
Wheat Breaks Down to a MUST HOLD Support Pocket Wheat Technicals: Wheat futures got taken to the woodshed yesterday, breaking below the low end of support which we had defined as 1027 ¼-1034 ¼. In yesterday’s report we noted that a failure of the Bulls to get back out above this pocket and “we could see the selling pressure accelerate.”. Our next support levels below that pocket didn’t come in until 982 and 967 ¼, both of which have been achieved. As mentioned in yesterday’s Tech Talk, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market consolidate and even rebound off of these lower support levels. Eventually, we think they will give way, and there’s not a lot of support until sub $9. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼****, 1095-1102****, 1142 ¾-1150*** Pivot: 982 Support: 960-967 1/4**, 925-930**, 897-902*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat Futures Break Below Support Wheat Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 5,736 futures/options through June 14th. This shrinks their net long to 6,939. Broken down that is 77,203 longs VS 70,264 shorts. Technicals: Wheat futures are breaking below the low end of the trading range, trading to their lowest price since the first week of April. Previous support now becomes resistance, if the Bulls cannot reclaim ground above 1027 ¼-1034 ¼ we could see the selling pressure accelerate. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1095-1102****, 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼** Pivot: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼ Support: 982**, 967 1/4** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Running up that hill - but then?INVESTMENT CONTEXT Analysts sharply raised the probability of a recession, while the Fed announced its support to yet another 75bps rate hike in July A worldwide measure of people’s inflation expectations over the next year was more than 4% in May, up from 2.3% a year ago Russia cut 60% of natural gas supply to Europe via Nord Stream 1 pipeline; cuts are now estimated to have reached 50% to Austria and Germany and 45% to Italy Germany announced it would take emergency measures, including restarting coal-fired power plants, to cushion the impact of lower gas supplies from Russia Turkey offered its support to extending safe grain export corridors from Ukrainian ports A delegation from the IMF arrived in Colombo, Sri Lanka's capital, to discuss a rescue package after the country declared default on its international debt Three Arrows Capital failed to meet demands to provide extra collateral to meet margin calls on digital currency positions PROFZERO'S TAKE Carefully monitoring equities after last week's collapse - not even energy stocks, the clear overperformers of the first 150 days of the year, were spared by the rush to sell. Balancing now Value with Growth may become the major challenge for investors as we head into recession - where the winners of the next decade are dictated Ireland's Finance Minster Paschal Donohoe expressed positive views on the Eurozone, asserting that the balance sheets of the continent's States are in much better shapes then 10 years back, when the contagion of Greece's debt crisis was feared to spill over to Italy and Spain, triggering a spiraling domino effect of defaults. ProfZero unfortunately does not share Mr. Donohoe's optimism. Countries like Italy deeply enjoyed the not-so-implicit backing of the ECB when it came to rolling over government debt in the open market after the investor confidence meltdown in November 2011 - yet no tangible reforms revived the nation's growth and productivity statistics, while public spending rather than targeting infrastructural changes was aimed at winning political approval in the form of heftier unemployment cheques. Taken together, Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio in fact ballooned from 126.5% in 2012 to 150.8% in 2021; inflation may definitely play a role smoothing the nominal debt load, but interest rates are already guiding fixed income traders to bet against the country's solvency, to the point that the ECB had to backtrack on its announcement regarding the end of the EUR 20bn monthly bond-buying program. ProfZero recently reiterated that from an inflation crisis this could easily spiral into a credit downfall; China already had its Evergrande moment. Let's hope the world will suffer a little more piccolo ProfZero often gets asked "Is it the right time to buy?" - The right question would rather be: "Why and what am I buying?" Until we flip our mindset to that, we'll be just chasing trends, ending up being eaten by the sharks PROFONE'S TAKE Following the considerations about the energy of future, ProfOne’s eyes are set on green hydrogen, a promising alternative fuel facing ever-growing demand. Hydrogen has been demonstrated to enjoy potential to replace natural gas in power-hungry industries like cement, steel, ceramics and fertilizers. In the context of de-carbonisation and energy security, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, governments and energy companies upped their investments in green hydrogen: BP (BP) has taken a 40.5% stake in a USD 30bn green hydrogen production project in Australia, while Spain is bidding to become the first green hydrogen hub in Europe. Amidst growing enthusiasm, ProfOne is curious how producers will deal with the challenges of storage and transportation, other than the extremely high production costs. Today's green hydrogen is based on clean electricity from renewable energy; as such, it is ca. 5x more expensive than grey hydrogen (actually the most common, coming from natural gas without emissions recapture). The energy equation has 3 variables: security, reliability and affordability. To date, all known sources can satisfy but 2 at a time - green hydrogen included
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Wheat: More of the Same, Trading in a RangeWheat Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 236,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023. Technicals: Wheat futures were able to defend technical support yesterday, we’ve had that defined as 1027 ¼-1034 ¼. If you’re Bullish, this is a spot to consider buying against as the risk is fairly well defined. If we break and close below that pocket, that would be your sign to take the L and move on. If the Bulls are able to continue defending that pocket, we could see a retest of our pivot pocket, 1095-1102. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼** Pivot: 1095-1102 Support: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼****, 982**, 967 1/4** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat Futures Test Significant Support Wheat Technicals: Wheat futures came within a stone's throw of 4-star support overnight, we've had that labeled as 1027 1/4-1034 1/4, the low was 1036 1/2. If you're Bullish (we aren't) that is a good spot to consider buying as the risk is fairly well defined. A break and close below that pocket could open the door for a break back below $10.00 and below, with the next significant support coming in closer to 975. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼** Pivot: 1095-1102 Support: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼****, 982**, 967 1/4** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
2
Daily Wheat Market Update (6.14.22)Wheat Technicals (July): More of the same for wheat, as we continue to trade in a range, albeit a wide range. Wheat futures continue to chop around from about 1030 on the low end and 1100 on the high end. A breakout or breakdown from these levels could pop or drop the market 50 cents relatively quickly. Our bias is Neutral at the moment, but we would be looking to be lean bearish at higher levels. When we say higher levels, we are talking about a retracement of the May 31st breakdown point near 1150. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼** Pivot: 1095-1102 Support: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat Futures, the Modern Day Yo-YoWheat Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 2,905 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This shrinks their net long position to 13,774. Broken down, that is 82,385 longs VS 68,611 shorts. Technicals: Wheat futures continue to chop around in a wide range, from about 1030 on the low end and 1100 on the high end. A breakout or breakdown from these levels could pop or drop the market 50 cents relatively quickly. Our bias is Neutral at the moment, but we would be looking to be lean bearish at higher levels. When we say higher levels, we are talking about a retracement of the May 31st breakdown point near 1150. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼** Pivot: 1095-1102 Support: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
WEAT ETV To Play The Future Price of WheatWEAT's price, an ETV which trades wheat futures, is positioned to keep increasing as the horrible war in Ukraine rages on. I accumulated this back at the $6.5 - $7 price level as a response to the decrease in fertilizer (thank you China for hoarding and mismanaging) and increases in crop disruption due to climate change related disasters. As you can see, it was chugging along nicely within the channel I drew back in Sept. I was expecting the continuation of nice returns as I've been playing the top and bottom of the channel. I had no idea that the #1 and #5 producers of wheat would go to war before spring planting and now we can expect the price of wheat and wheat futures to sky rocket. There is supply side destruction for at least one year that is being priced in right now but the decrease in fertilizer and climate disruption effecting the rest of the producers has not. Where the market hasn't yet priced something in, there is profit to be made. Wheat and thus WEAT's price has open skies once it breaks through the $12.65 level and the broader cup, of the cup and handle formation it has been forming for years, will be put in at $24.65, then down to put in the handle, reset and then put in a big impulsive wave up.
AMEX:WEATLong
by SloppySeconds
4
Real economy beating expectations yet markets trading in red 🤔INVESTMENT CONTEXT President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not blocking Ukrainian wheat from being exported, and that the grain could be dispatched via ports controlled either by Russia or Ukraine. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine accounted for ca. 29% of international annual wheat sales U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst expectations (325,000) and showing resilient real economy in the face of rampant inflation and higher interest rates Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell to 414.7 million barrels in the wake of strong demand, yet limiting chances of further releases to cool domestic energy prices Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron followed JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon saying “This is among if not the most complex, dynamic environment I’ve ever seen in my career". On a similar tone, in a leaked Tesla email, Elon Musk cited having a "super bad feeling" about the economy as the main reason for shedding 10% of the company's workforce PROFZERO'S TAKE When good news are met with S&P 500 dropping more than 1.50%, and Nasdaq doing even worse at 2.47% in the red, we know something is off. That's what happens when bears are in control, and policy makers are desperate to understand how far can they move with tightening before the backlash. A remarkably strong U.S. economy just added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst expectations and reassuring the Fed it could maintain the trajectory of 50bps rate hikes in July and August. ProfZero clearly welcomes Main Street's resilience and rising wages - yet, as anticipated in Step99 podcast, it cautions against the forward-looking effects of monetary policy vs. the actual state of the economy. As pointed out by The Economist, "A recession in America by 2024 looks likely" - today's strength of the real economy may at best soften its blow Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser sees "three R" whiplashing EU economy - rates, Russia and recession, this latter happening in Europe ahead of the U.S. because of "the energy side (...) really having an impact". ProfZero has made energy a key theme of this Parlay, with potentially more decisive effects on the real economy than monetary policy. With Brent testing again USD 120/boe and fading cushion inventories from the U.S., it is hard to imagine how the EU will cope with the next cold season without rationing output, hence slashing GDP growth. Regasification plants and last-generation nuclear are definitely tools of the future; but by then, are seaborne imports going to be enough? Equities are definitely off the lows witnessed in April and early May - perhaps Musk's "super bad feeling" and Mr. Dimon's "hurricane" are rather looming on the real economy? Not an inch less worrying... BTC once again confidently breaking up the mid-term triangle pattern and trying to regain 32k after trading below 30k on June 4-5 - and yet ProfZero's eyes are set on the lurking death cross on 200MA PROFONE'S TAKE After sharing about lithium and nickel, ProfOne completes the overview of rare minerals that are crucial for the production of batteries setting its eyes are on cobalt. Cobalt prices soared from USD 30k/ton in January to USD 52k in May - on top of the 2x surge in 2021 vs. 2020. According to the Cobalt Institute, in the next five years cobalt demand is expected to hit 320k/ton, up from 175k/ton in 2021. ProfOne argues that meeting such demand won’t be operatively easy. For once, cobalt is yet another highly concentrated resource: about 70% of world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where production is dominated by Chinese companies and commodities trader Glencore (GLEN). Adding to it that world's second supplier of cobalt is Russia, the metals puzzle turns out to be a fairly intricate one
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Daily Grain Futures Volatility Forecast 26 May 22 ZS ZC ZW WHEAT ZW 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 4.17% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 1180 BOT 1085 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN ZC 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 2.41% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 781 BOT 744 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEAN ZS 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 2% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 1709 BOT 1641 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZS1!
by exlux
Time to think out of the box 💡INVESTMENT CONTEXT Equities failed to sustain May 23 uptick, with bears firmly in control of the market sending Nasdaq in the low 11k bracket U.S. retailer Best Buy (BBY) missed EPS forecasts, but downplayed recession fears S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of the services and manufacturing industries, fell to 51.8 in May, its lowest level since February 2021; meanwhile, new home sales in the U.S. fell 26.9% on a yearly basis At Davos, Davos, George Soros remarked that “Indeed, the Russian invasion may turn out to be the beginning of World War III, and our civilization may not survive it“ After taking a leading role in Netflix (NFLX) one-day 30% slump, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman tweeted "Inflation is out of control (...) Markets are imploding because investors are not confident that the (Fed) will stop inflation. If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job" PROFZERO'S TAKE Tensions in Ukraine remain high after Russia's capture of the port-city of Mariupol. As EU's resolve is being tested by the concerns of some member States (Hungary in particular) on energy security, analysts see the conflict in Donbas dragging in a protracted war of attrition. ProfZero hasn't failed to notice the regained momentum of RUB in the wake of the growing fringe of European energy companies bowing to Moscow's request of supplies being paid in its own currency - yet the catch 22 is becoming thornier by the hour now that soft commodities vehemently entered the picture, escalating the crisis to a global level Russia may in fact be nearing default, as the U.S. Treasury Department said it would end as of May 25 a waiver that allowed Russia’s central bank to process payments to bondholders in USD through U.S. and international banks, on a case-by-case basis. The first tranche of interest on debt is scheduled for May 27, when EUR 100mln are due on two bonds. ProfZero has long been reporting the eventual default of Russia as a further aggravating catalyst to the overall macro scenario - now that the moment of truth nears, ripples from the eventual default also must be accounted for, starting from the consequences to soft commodities Buffett binging on U.S. equities while Soros calling the possible end of our civilization. Coincidence? As much as Bill Ackman, ProfZero only believes in the inescapable, cold efficiency of the market. Greed has all it takes to eat inflation's lunch ProfZero is starting to feel uneasy about the prolonged range-bound trading pattern drawn by BTC. Whilst impressed by the resilience of the entire blockchain space to the broader turmoil, and even more so by the rebound after LUNA's demise, ProfZero argues the current trading structure conjures fears of sudden, major drops should bears launch a short attack on the segment (much akin to the meltdown on April 29)
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero