Wheat - Mar $4 Support?Bulled up... just a matter of weather* $4 support holds or we drop down to 3.5 levels
Trend line resistance erroded
Wheat
Wheat - Waiting for the touchdown to take a flightThe A/R's doing a good job.
Now I wait to go long from the pullback at the A/R.
Patience...hunt mode on.
Wheat Bearish FlagMay Wheat is forming a bearish flag. Could fall into Cypher extension heading for a double bottom. Looking for confirmation of a start near centre of the flag downwards and continues downwards. RSI still trending downwards
Wheat - Demand LevelThis is purely a technical view as I am not familiar with wheat fundamentals (Ag fundamentalists please chime in I would love for this to be a learning experience for me); This is however my view of a potential technical validation of the Demand Exchange at 4.07 based on my general view of commodities/dx/oil over the next couple of months as I see a potential pop in the DX after through the March FOMC meeting followed by a small decline in the DX. 4.07 is also in line with the April 2007 major wheat rally kick off.
Looking forward to hearing from you and learning about wheat, Good trading all!
Wheat - bullish opportunityIf we see a pullback from the lower side of this channel and the 144 Smoothed MA, bulls are going to deliver wave {v}
WHEAT close to a YUGE breakoutWheat is testing important long-term cloud and trend line resistance. A breakout above 470-480$ area could signal a very big move ahead. Minimum target will be close to 600$. Must be patient and wait for breakout.
Wheat Bullish FlagJune Wheat produced a bullish flag today. Upside target 475 area. Looking for Bullish Gartley completion at 480 and above. Long term target double top at 488
Wheat - diagonal triangleThere's a possible diagonal triangle in wave (C), so bulls are likely going to deliver an upward impulse in wave 1 or A
Wheat: Long Term Wave Count (Attempt) & Potential Bullish BatI am still getting my feet wet with waves so take this count with a grain of salt..however I thought it was educational for myself and potentially others. Even though it seems very "convenient" that we are coming close to the end of Wave C, it does align with the view of the bullish Bat pattern. If you see something I can fix please share it with me so I can learn and improve! :)
That said, I will be buying wheat at the bat entry shown if the price ever makes its way there. Cheers!
CBoT wheat dailyThe daily MAY17 chart shows that price has been under control of a long term descending resistance trend line that started during the 2nd half of July 2016 which was broken by price to the upside on January 5.
From there on price traded an ascending channel which has its origin at the 406 level on December 23 and offered support to price on January 30 and on February 7. Price has now again arrived at same supportive ascending line which should offer immediate support from Monday’s session onward.
The ascending line starts at 445 on Monday and ends at 450 by the end of the week. We will allow price to pierce through same support but we do not want to see price trading below 427 in which case we will have to reconsider our bias.
CBoT wheat weeklyThe weekly continuation chart shows that the price has been moving in a long term descending trending price channel that started in July of 2012 at around the 900/930 level and gradually channeled price down to 466 in September 2014 after which price made, although reluctantly, a new low at around the 485 level during August 2016.
From late December 2016 onwards price hesitantly started making modest new highs and has not tested back the most recent low. The interesting in this price channel is the fact that price has not been testing the lower line of the channel since September 2014 and made only one modest lower lows on the chart since.
Price has developed a descending wedge that roughly started between May and September 2014. The TA rule of an ascending wedge is that price, eventually, will break out of same wedge to the upside which usually happens between 2/3rd and 3/4th of the wedge and which has happened 3 weeks ago indeed. Usually, price then makes a test back to the upper line of the wedge which then serves as support which now seems to be developing.
Wheat Bearish FlatA bearish flag has developed on July Wheat. How much fall there will be is the issue. USDA reports for 2017 are less bushels than last year, but there are still large supplies hanging over wheat, corn and especially soybeans.
Wheat Bull marketbottomed at 3.7, wheat has break through the trading range in 3.7-4.15, reach a new high in two recent trading days. Keeping long position :)
Wheat Has Completed A Bearish Butterfly and AB=CD PatternI had an order set to short 1 pip above the current high of the day and didn't get picked up. I have since moved the order to the high as shown in the chart. Risk:Reward is pretty nice and looking left (further left than on this chart) there is some structure which supports this as a supply zone.
Wheat has been looking pretty bullish so it would probably be advisable to wait for a bearish signal on a lower time frame. Let me know what you think about Wheat!
WHEAT | Weekly Chart A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric with a long right tail. Thus, we can give the position similar treatment to that which we might a long option trade.
MW1! @ daily @ closed last 8 days higher, while every day
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
Closings Bullish (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
Wheat 2618 Trade Opportunity 01/11/2016I previously shorted wheat 1 pip from the top and it was a very nice trade (although I closed too early around 3.99 or so). Price bounced from the .382 fib of the larger up move but the price action in the current area looks weak. I am looking to re-open shorts at the levels in the chart but only if no warning signs are present -- big bullish candles, oversold RSI , etc.
This is not meant to be a trading signal so please do not use it as one -- I still have very much to learn as a trader and none of my ideas are trading advice. That said I always appreciate any comments and feedback on my charts and ideas!
Current thoughts on wheatThe following are some charts that have my current thinking on wheat on them which includes monthly, weekly, daily, and 4hr.
Weekly:
Daily:
4hr:
