Limit UP!This is what happens when two of the world's largest wheat producers start fighting each other.
Wheat
WHEATUsing just the Price/Trend indicator on its own, we would have made +40% - we had 2 opportunities to BUY on 4H - however we slept on this as we were too busy trading Crypto to remember that Ukraine is one of the biggest Wheat producers!
Interesting to see where it will fall - Sell the News ...
Wheat Futures - /XW - Parabolic Moves on Monthly ChartWheat Futures - /XW - Parabolic moves to the upside recently - Will it hit all-time highs? Will food prices increase to new levels in the grocery store? Are they already higher? 50% target has been hit in last couple months.
WHEAT LONG-TERM LONGS 📉📉📉📈 I just wanted to share with you the reason behind the big bullish move on WHEAT, Ukraine is the country that exports the most wheat in the Europe so the price will rise because of the supply damage. Also as we are in a RISK OFF market sentiment investors tend to buy this asset as they are thinking about PROTECTION both on money and themselves. I think we will see wheat way above 1200-1300$ if the military conflict it will continue. From a technical perspective we are in a clear bullish market structure as price keeps printing higher highs and higher lows
What do you think ?
When technicals fail, revert back to fundamentalsWheat has been trending upwards with a channel/megaphone pattern so far. The prices were increasing rapidly and near the channel boundary, it exploded. When it could end up is very questionable but it's not hard to understand the recent price increase is purely based on fear.
Ukraine and Russia contribute to a total of about 26% to the Wheat market, even if we assume they completely vanished, it's only reasonable to guess the price should not go more than 26% from the upper channel boundary. But the markets are not rational, and during conflicting and desperate times it may increase up to 50% to the maximum wheat price recorded ever. I hope this would not happen because what happened later was the global financial crisis, and history could very well be repeated.
If you have access to options, buy some puts on wheat. When markets settle the price will crash spectacularly and you can sit with a lot of cash.
Do not short a parabolic market unless you have a lot of money. Buy puts on the parabolic market because all curves become lines in trades. Every parabolic move is short-lived.
Weat Chuvashov Fork and Accumulation Cylinder ~$9.50 in January Weat seems to have found a bottom and is trading above the 200 daily SMA again.
After the long turn down it seems a chuvashov fork formed followed by Jesse Livermore's Accumulation Cylinder
Estimating a price of ~$9.50 in January 2022
Did you weed out Wheat from your Portfolio?I see more of a buying opportunity coming up than a sell, though the latter is also possible.
Again, commodities trading is volatile so prepare your SL and capital management properly.
Trade cautiously.
Food shortages entering back into playThe playbook for manoeuvring - actively adding longs
We can start with a quick review of the general plan for the operation I shall be discussing. I imagine all sitting in longs from earlier in the year are ready to exploit greater freedom of movement which we we will posses a tick above August highs. So to seize the point, our attack is a momentum move, like a sailing boat when we get caught in the wind.
Eyeballing a test of first targets at 900 as early as the yearly close. As can be seen from above, it would be quite wrong to describe these moves here as anything but painful for consumers. Depending on the price action at 900 we are flirting to unlock the GFC highs. We are 23% and counting, time to start swinging the bat!
ZW testing demarks yearly R1 pivot pointWheat futures ZW1! ran into strong resistance at Demarks Yearly R1 pivot point.
Wheat Completes Head and Shoulders Pattern, Target at 865Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 15 Min Chart.
There appears to be a completed head and shoulders price pattern on the commodity Wheat. The left shoulder is around the low of 750.38, the head made a low of 750.38 and the right shoulder made a low of 757. The pattern is not at its original designation however appears to be a positive sign nonetheless. The neckline stands at the 779.37 and 779.87 highs. The completion of this pattern takes the commodity towards current price levels at the time of publishing. Expectations are for the trend in the commodity to continue towards 865. A stop loss order has been placed at 766, below Wheat’s neckline.
The Point and Figure Chart corroborates this bullish view. There was a close above the short (30-MA) medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) moving averages. There has also been positive crossovers on these respective MAs. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is above 0 and green and the RSI is above 50. The chart indicates that Wheat can rally towards 860.
The Daily chart shows a breakout of 804 resistance. Closing above this level indicates a bullish move for the commodity.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 766 and a target of 865. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.73.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to Wheat.
The FED Roach InfestationMoney supply expansion is like roaches. It goes everywhere you don't want, and nobody can control it.
Plotted here is the money supply to futures ratio of soy, wheat, corn, and sugar. We have the potential to see a massive increase in food speculation, simply because it's not risky. When equities burst, the money goes anywhere it can. So we should expect a breakout here unless the fake money kicks back into gear.
KC Wheat Cont KC Wheat - Weekly: Some indecision the past few weeks with price action working above the Blue Tenkan and below the red Kijun lines. Upside targets remain at 8.75 to 8.92. A breakout above the 8.92 high has targets up to 9.84. Support is 7.43 with further retracements at 7.07 and 6.51.
A minimum three-wave rally on Wheat Expected - Elliott wave WHEAT made a sharp and impulsive drop from the mentioned resistance levels, at Fib. ratio of 0.382/0.50 and at the level of a former wave iv (795/800 area). We labelled a possibly completed five-wave structure in C at 757 lvl., which means a minimum three-wave rally can now be in the cards, and is already underway.
If only a three-wave rally shows up, and then we see a new impulsive drop below the 757 lvl.. then this would suggest more weakness for a wave C.
If we get more impulsive price movement to the upside, and eventually above the upper parallel channel line, then this would suggest a bullish change in trend, and a completed red A-B-C correction.
WHEAT Looks Promising - Elliott waveWHEAT (MAR 2022) made a textbook example of an impulsive (five legged) wave, down from 831 high, and found a potential low for a higher degree wave A or 1 at the 774 lvl.. Price can now be in a temporary, corrective retracement labelled as an a-b-c flat of a higher degree wave B or 2. Possible resistance is at fib. ratio of 0.382/0.50.
In case if price starts dropping impulsively through the lower corrective parallel channel line, and below the 774 low, then we would consider a completed correction in B or 2, and further weakness.
WHEAT in leg v of a bearish turn - Elliott waveWHEAT is trading in a five-wave decline for a higher degree wave 1 or A from 831 high. We also see that price broke below the lower corrective parallel channel line, which is a confirmation that a temporary high is in place, and a change in trend underway.
At the moment we are tracking a sub-wave v of 1/A, down from 795 lvl., where a corrective sub-wave iv had ended (fib. ratio of 0.382 and 0.50 reacted as resistance). Sub-wave v can reach area near the 776/771 lvls., before an a-b-c move for a bigger 2/B correction may follow.
WHEAT turning bearish for a lesser five-wave move - Elliott waveWHEAT (Mar 2022) is trading as expected, turning in impulsive fashion down from 831 high of a former higher degree wave C. We labelled a five-wave move in progress for a higher degree wave 1 or A; sub-wave iv correction can now be underway, with possible resistance at the Fib. ratio of 0.382 or 0.50. Also the upper side of the lower parallel corrective channel line can react as resistance, and the former swing high of a wave b (796'2 lvl.). A sharp break below the 782 lvl. would suggest a completed minor correction and sub-wave v underway.
An impulsive fall, followed by a break bellow the lower corrective parallel channel line indicates a bearsih turn on the intra-day chart of wheat.
Wheat Taking The Bullish Move - Elliott waveWHEAT (Mar 2022) found a low for a corrective wave B at the 776 level, near the Fib. ratios of 0.382 and 0.5, which can also react as support, and bounced sharply higher. A sharp rally above the upper parallel channel line, and above the former high at 803 lvl. is an indication that bulls are in control, and that correction is completed.
We are now tracking a five-wave rally, a new impulse labelled as wave C, which can target the upper parallel channel line, connected from the high of A. 825/835 area can be seen, and can be achieved in a five-wave fashion as previous wave A.
MORE UPSIDE ON WHEAT, INTRA-DAY - ELLIOTT WAVE A five-wave rally on wheat (March 2022) from 737 lvl. on the intra-day chart makes a bullish sign, and suggests more upside, once current a-b-c correction fully unfolds. Correction can be a complex one, and can look for support at the 770/761 region, where wave iv and Fib. ratio of 0.618 sit.
WHEAT, closed in Stop ProfitAfter 3 months we close our positions on wheat.
The price pulled back 25 points, leading our positions to hit the Stop Profit we had set at 769.80 to save profits, and it did.
Very good are those who have deducted part of the contracts on 50%, others on 38.2% letting the remaining part of the contracts run, very well indeed.
Now let's let the WHEAT go where it wants to go, we are far from any signal of the MCS, in February we will be in A1 of the annual and we will then evaluate any possible trade.
Wheat (The FED can't print FOOD)View On WHEAT (12 Jan 2022)
FED and Central Banks can print unlimited amount of liquidity but not food.
We are expecting 2022 will be the inflationary year.
Food prices are going to go up. Still on the buy side.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment".
Thank You!
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$KE1! Wheat OVER $9 in March? Potential for $10?Hi Folks,
Wheat has entered a bull run with a 50/200 ema golden cross as well as a 100/200 ema bullish cross for the first time since 2010! The prior run was from 2010 to 2016. Bearish from 2016 until late 2020 where we first see some bullish crossings. These stages tend to last anywhere between 4-6 years so we should see some continuation.
As far as the technical movement goes, we can tell that wheat likes to flag into the 21-day ema and sometimes into the 50-day ema before continuing. Yesterday, price fell below the 21-day ema and today it reclaimed immediately; this is exactly what we wish to see in healthy upward movements.
Needless to say, at this point you can tell I am bullish on wheat (and commodities in general) for the foreseeable future. What say you?
