For Week 2023/11/20-24, A slight bearish move for XAUUSDConsidering the relatively muted weekend activity and the ongoing weakening of the USD, it's reasonable to anticipate a slight bearish correction for XAUUSD in the coming week. The absence of a significant weekend push and the prevailing market conditions suggest the potential for downward movement. However, it is essential to closely monitor any shifts in global factors, market sentiment, and economic indicators, as these could influence the trajectory of XAUUSD.
Weeklyforecast
XAUUSD POSSIBLE MOVE WEEKLY CHART The US Dollar maintained its positive tone throughout the first half of the day but changed course after the American opening. As a result, XAU/USD bounced from a fresh weekly low of $1,944.71 to trade above the $1,960 mark. Financial markets maintain cautious optimism amid hopes central banks are done with monetary tightening, despite policymakers insisting on keeping the door open for additional rate hikes.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivered some encouraging words on Thursday, as he said the economy is “remarkably” healthy, noting real progress on inflation. He also added that the job is not yet done, as inflation remains high. Finally, he said that any downturn might be less severe than in past recessions and that the labor market is now more balanced.
In a separate event, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that the full effects of the recent policy are yet to be seen. Later in the day, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled “Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy” at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and could comment on monetary policy.
EU outlook for this weekI have a lot on this week outside of the markets. This is my thoughts on EU which follow on from last week's idea. I'll be looking for M15 zones to hook in and ride price action when time allows. I'll update below when I'm at the charts and see anything interesting so be sure to subscribe to this idea, below.
Gold weekly forecast 23-27.10After two strong weeks, gold may slow down, starting with a retracement. The most likely scenario is that the price will go down, break the channel and fool the traders with a false breakout. But the price broke very strong reaction are, which we will observe later. I do not think gold will break the 4H manipulation that I have marked, but most likely it will use this area as support to continue higher.
We will take a closer look at the price action to see what we can expect.
Macroeconomics
J.P. delivered a hawkish speech, warning of higher interest rates. This could lead to at least temporary bearish movements in gold.
The war with Israel is still very active. We have seen gold rally aggressively with the start of this war.
Employment is falling, or more accurately, it is not moving. Last reading of unemployment rate was unchanged. Which gives room for the FED to go further with IR.
The latest CPI showed that inflation is still high, most likely because of oil prices. Although the core CPI showed a significant drop in inflation, it seems to me that this was not enough evidence for the FED.
There are definitely bearish factors with the hawkish stance, but the war is a geopolitical risk, that does not happen very often. In my opinion, this risk will push the "safe haven" metal higher.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly
Gold is forming a very strong bullish manipulation. If this month closes as such a strong FU, we can be sure that the all-time high will be broken.
Weekly
Gold has just broken through a strong weekly manipulation area. Most likely, the price will come back for a retracement and continue on its bullish path.
Daily
I would say that gold is now in the daily reaction area where it has often ranged in the past. That makes, this week we may see a sideways price action.
Benchmark
Although the price action has been very strong and gold has been strong against other currencies, the benchmark indices are showing underlying weakness. This should give us a clue that we may see sideways price action this week.
COT Reports
Last week the pros were bearish, but it seems they have already sync with the banks.
US Yields
Yields are rising, but so is gold. It tells us that the big players are probably buying because of the war.
XAUUSD vs GDX
I do not like this divergence. History has shown that we should be cautious when there is such a divergence. BUT last year, during the strong rally in Gold I, such phenomena also happened.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is also very bullish but has failed to break through the highs. These two could form a SMT divergence, suggesting at least a slowdown in the current rally.
Elliot Wave
I am not sure if this is the right count as the extension is larger than normal, but for now I will focus on the bullish count.
Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns
The volume on the recent low was large and did not suggest a reversal. Nevertheless, the war came and the economic events pushed gold higher.
The current price action appears to be an accumulation - a classic Wyckoff pattern.
Momentum
We saw what happened last time when the price reached the band and became oversold. Right now gold is at the top of the band.
The RSI has entered the overbought zone.
NIFTY 50: Weekly Outlook: October Week 3, 2023Weekly Review
Nifty 50 gained 0.5% in the last week, hence closing at 19,751. The index has been very reactive to the past few macro events like Middle East warzone situations, Positive cues on Retail Inflation at 5.03% and poor guidance from IT companies on the growth front. Although on the technical front, levels have been in accordance with our view for the last two weeks gap opening and closing will cause a significant issue when we look back on these levels in future months.
Week Ahead:
On Daily charts key support for the week to come stands at 19,600 (make or break) for the rally to stay intact. The upcoming week will see a revision of resistance levels at 19,796-19,884 is a crucial tradezone, a break above this will see Nifty rally to 20,000 levels once again. In case a breakdown below 19,600 happens then 19,481,19,376 and 19,326-19230 will hold the fort.
Caution: Be cautious of sectors and stocks you trade as the market and scripts will be very reactive to Q2 FY24 earnings as much has not been factored in the market.
*Disclaimer*: I am not a SEBI registered analyst and hence the above market outlook is for educational study and research purposes only. In no way do I endorse this opinion to take a trade or for any investments in markets in any form by any Participant. Be a responsible investor with proper risk management and keep learning as a true focus.
Figure 1: Nifty 50 Weekly Forecast chart
Nifty 50: Meltdown @19,600Week Ahead:
On Daily charts, the index has lost all its momentum even though the fall has slown down but it has left huge runaway gaps between daily candles. Ideally such situation woul need to trade within crucial candles range and be mindfull of taking trades when Index trades near the gaps, as the saying goes, most of the time index always closes on gaps.
From levels perspective, Nifty is still vulnerable to fall around 19,600. Key levels aroun here are 19,502-19,595 and much on lower side are 19,386 , 19,326-19,230. If the markt settles around 19,600 then a move beyond 19,795 will make the fog clear around the botton of this last week’s meltdown.
Nifty 50 Weekly Market OutlookWeekly Review
Nifty 50 continued to fall for the 5th week straight. The index has retraced -3.64% from its all-time highs. Although in mid-week bulls tried to outnumber the bears as index witnessed a good rally till 19,585 levels but was soon rejected as it faced huge selling pressure pushing the index to 19,265 with a gap down opening the very last day of the week.
Week Ahead :
On Daily charts, the Nifty 50 index seems to form a falling wedge which shouldn’t go unoticed as we have seen a euphoric rally in past mid week. This indicates a strong push by bulls to regain their fort but that’s a conditional outlook if the index is breached beyond the falling trendline (downward sloping-upper trendline) with sustained move till 19,300-19,375. A break above 19,600 is a crucial resistance for any rally beyond that level and given the fact that market still holds 19,494 as crucial level. On the lower side if the selling pressure weighs heavy, a possibility of 19,194 , 19,076 and 18,977 can’t be ignored.
New week, new opportunities!I’m expecting the week to start and take all of the liquidity above those highs (red dots). The volume of that move higher will be very important to take into consideration.
The issue is, the week needs to make a new low and that fact alone will probably give bears an advantage from my POV. To make a significant low on the weekly, price will probably have to break H4 structure and if it does, the next demand that I’ll be paying attention is around 1.075.
As traders, we need to take into consideration different scenarios and how to act upon them. So here’s how I’ll trade next week.
If price starts breaking bellow Fridays low, I’ll start looking for shorts aggressively and considering the possibility that it will reach 1.075. When it does, I’ll look for longs, because price should take liquidity from above, before continuing with bearish momentum if that’s the case. Also important to notice that level is inside weekly demand and if it breaks, the bearish momentum would be very aggressive. I don’t consider that as likely to happen, unless there’s some catalyst from high impact news.
The other scenario that I’ll be looking for, is price holding Fridays low and continue higher to take the liquidity as mentioned above. In that case, I’ll consider shorts from around 1.097 BUT since price is coming from daily demand it will depend on how it gets there and even if I take positions, I’ll manage my expectations about the results.
Monday and Tuesday don’t have any high impact news, which is perfect for price to grind higher, which is my main expectation for the beginning of the week. Wednesday there’ll be PMI data on EU and US, should be very volatile. Thursday, unemployment claims from the US and Friday consumer sentiment and Powell speech after.
The goal is to remain truthful to the plan and enjoy trading for what it is!
EURUSD: Weekly overviewRegarding our observations, currently there are more buyers in the market
Long-term trend is bullish!
There is a bearish move that has started from JUL 18 inside the bullish channel so we could consider the mid-term trend as bearish.
There might be a short-term bullish move that we could make profit out of it.
1.0820 and the bottom of bullish channgel are proper prices to place long limit orders.
1.0950 and 1.1028 are best places to set short limit orders.
These are best levels regarding Support and resistance, Channels, Weekly pivots, Buyers and Sellers focus and order_block.
Gold next weekIn the previous week, the price crossed our target of 1900, and fell to the important support of 1885. As long as the price is involved in the support zone (1902-1885), a definite decision regarding the future cannot be made.
The support of 1880 can be the appropriate point for the price to return. Although the price chart has lost important supports, but for the price of gold to rise, it must break the trend line A and B strongly, so in the coming week, traders should carefully consider the price movement. so that they are not harmed.
The long-term price target on the downside could be 1825, but a short-term correction is not out of the question.
Divergence on Petronet Weekly ChartThe weekly chart analysis suggests a potential upward movement. The 14-day stochastic oscillator has reversed from the oversold zone, indicating a momentum shift. Price found support at 220 level. A fresh divergence on the chart adds to the indication of an upcoming upward trend.
Buy at Market, Target at 235, Stop Loss at 218
USDCHF WEEKLY FORECAST - WB: 24/07/2023This is my analysis for the Pair USDCHF, week beginning 24/07/2023.
As shown by the change of character on the 4 hour chart, USDCHF is now ready to return to its original point from where it broke, I have drawn out a POI and I expect the price to keep falling and reacting off of it and going to the next significant point.
I would suggest to search for longs this coming week on the USDCHF especially where breaks towards the up occur.
NOTE: This is not financial advice, please do your own research and be aware that any risks are being taken solely by you, the individual.
AUDNZD I Retrace upward and potential downsideWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** AUDZD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!
Weekly Momentum On Major Pairs (Week 28/2023)First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up.
XXX/USD: Very Bullish
Gold & Silver: Slightly Bullish
XXX/JPY: Neutral/Slightly Bearish
Stock Indexes: Mixed
BitCoin: Neutral
USDJPY I Weekly outlook and trade opportunity!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!