Get started

Wave4

Facebook From HereFacebook is taking a dive after hours, but I believe this is yet another opportunity to buy the dip. If we close above the previous 2018 lows for the rest of this month, expect FB is entering a wave 4. It will likely involve a swift "fade" higher, perhaps to 195-200, a hard rejection, and a slow, arduous battle for control between buyers and sellers for the rest of the year, perhaps producing some type of falling wedge or triangle pattern on the longer timeframe charts. IF Facebook continues to hold above 150, we will eventually see some sort of reversal signal (Double bottom or inverse head and shoulders for instance), signaling to traders that it is "time to buy" again. I would expect this signal to occur around the low 160's. The next bullish move should be fast and furious and could eventually result in new ATH's, or at least a test of previous highs. However, if at any point FB takes out the previous 2018 lows, we can assume we have finished a wave 5 and should expect another LOWER low after the initial fade higher. while the current dip is buyable either way for short-term traders, longer-term investors should take heed and sell FB on any bounce near 185-195 if given the opportunity if this lower low should occur anytime soon, as the next phase would be expected to include a C correction or even a complete trend change where the lower 130's are likely to be tested. While I don't anticipate this to occur before breaching 200 once again as long as 150 holds, be on close watch for that lower-low to signal whether we are entering a longer wave 4 or a faster, more volatile corrective phase.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Red_Ben
BTC ... does Renko hold the key to unlocking the wave count?Hello everyone. So there's been much deliberation over the wave count. Certainly the drop from 10k has had a few minor bounces, and it is hard to distinguish what is really completion of a wave ... which obviously impacts the wave count. So this morning I switch to Renko bars ... looks clear as a sunny day to me. Up to now, over the past 2 days, I've been wondering if we are forming a wave 4 now ... but I don't like what I see ... we are stuck range bound, no real recovery (I expected a bounce to around 7800 mark. The weekend hasn't provided any major support for the bulls, maybe a little rest (equally for bears!). Renko makes it clear ... we are technically still in wave 3, no confirmation of wave 4. Now, it could be a start of wave 4 ... but we have NO confirmation. That means, it's wave 3 until we have confirmation! So what can happen? Let's say Asia markets open up on Monday and they rally it up, thinking we have a temporary bottom .... then, we can welcome wave 4. But let's say the see weakness, and after closing shorts at 72XX, they decide 7600 is a great place to open shorts again ... continuation of wave 3, and the target is there, the bottom of the triangle at around 69XX. That would mean we should still form wave 4 up and another wave 5 down!! So we could have an extended wave E, past the bottom of the triangle, to do a double bottom test of 6425 (Bitfinex). So, there you go ... Monday morning in Asia ... watch it closely. Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
11
BTC WAVE E ... consumed by fire, give rise to the Pheonix!Hello guys. So here's an update on my idea ... some polishing up done, with the new data, but the concept still remains the same. For those looking for a summary only. - we are likely forming wave E of a triangle pattern (see red wave) - we are likely in an impulse wave, where wave 3 ends and wave 4 starts (see purple wave). - the purple line is my highest probability, but the two black lines are other possibilities. So likely bottom is 6.9k (after a rise and then fall again), but 6.5k, 6k and 5.4k are also possibilities (the paths are shown in the black lines). - overall I see after this bottom, a nice bull market ... and look forward to the second half of 2018! OK so here is a more detailed explanation: We hit 7270, and came within 380 points of the triangle bottom. Not much left to go. But it is clear, two things are happening ... likely it's mostly shorts closing their positions (buying back bitcoin), and perhaps a bit of FOMO starting (people jumping in long guessing it's the bottom). The red wave E shown in my chart will likely be made up of an impulse wave (shown in purple). After reassessing the wave, I believe we are due for a wave 4 (UP) soon, before a final wave 5 down. That coincides with the bounces we are seeing (from 7270 to 7532 so far). But still not enough to convince me we are in wave 4 ... I look for breaking the current channel we are in, and the upper parallel is currently sitting in the 7600 territory (so I want to see it above that to confirm we are in a new wave up). Wave 4 will obviously take us higher, and my rough estimate at this stage is 7800 - 8100, with the most likely target actually being the higher end of this range. I'll know better once we've cross 7600 to see how much steam the bulls have. I strongly believe because we are only 380 points from the triangle bottom, the bears want to test that. If that's correct, a great play would be to short from the top of wave 4, and then close profits when the final wave 5 gets close to the triangle bottom, then look to long when wave 5 is close to finish (perhaps ladder in your buys at key levels). Wave E's (red wave) can extend past the triangle bottom (would be a great fake out ... and one last squeeze of longs looking to get in at triangle bottom). So I've shown a black line (one on the right) which extends to test the previous bottoms (6.4k/6.5k territory), before a bounce up. Please note, as I indicated we do not have solid confirmation that wave 4 has started. This could easily turn south again and wave 3 continues. That is the black line I've drawn on the left. This would eventually lead to wave 4 and then a wave 5 could take us down much further, where I have a possible bounce at 6k and even 5.4k is a possibility for me in this scenario. I do believe this triangle is a large continuation pattern. After a nice impulse up to 20k ... we break up out of this triangle once we complete WAVE E and to new highs. I am look forward to the second half of this year. Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
Oh the bliss, what a disguise. BTC will you go down or rise?Well, well, well .... just as I gave up on wave 4, here we are. At this point we've reached the all time high trend line and we are hitting a key Fib. Are we all wrong (oh yes, many have changed their tunes now after calling a 4k, 3k, 2k, 1k bottom). Wall street always wins, remember that. They want your money, so they do what's worst for you. Short you say, stay in cash you say? That must have hurt. I'm not trying to be funny guys, but we need to wake up. So where will it go now, as the BTC world turns to bullish euphoria? What will wall street do. It could go up, yes ... but at some point it will drop. The question is when. I don't know that, and it is clear most traders don't either. All I can say, according to the past, is what I think is key to determine sentiment and where I think it can go. At this stage, if we have topped out on wave 4 now, and EW theory holds true (although we already broke some principles), then the bottom in the mid term is estimated to be as low as 5.4k. It can bounce at 6k too! Anyhow, too many times I've been hypnotized by all the green, and then caught in a blood bath the next day. Not today, I'm starting to cash out and lock in my profits. Maybe I'm wrong ... but I'm very confident about one thing ... wall street always win. I'll be ready, either way they take it! Remember only a fool relies on one outcome. Do not use this for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
2
EURUSD - Bull Run to Continue Following Completion of Wave 4I'm eyeing wave 4 to end around 1.16570 and run 1.0 of wave 1 = 1.20650; but may also be 2.0 of wave 1 = 1.24801. A length of 2.0 also has confluence of intersecting with channel boundaries in symmetrical days (30) as Wave 1. Rues: IF Price Action = 1.16570 AND there is a major reversal pattern or candle on 1-day or 4-hour chart AND there is some major fundamental news favoring EUR or disfavoring USD, THEN use buy stop when trend line breaks to confirm trend (~1.16799) setting TP1: 1.20180, setting TP 2: 1.24952 Good luck!
Long
by milljohner
BTCUSD: Impulse Still Intact? Watch For Break Of 10256.BTCUSD update: Price action is still being lead by bearish momentum, but the range of the most recent candles are tightening. Even though this may not appear as anything unusual, because of where it is occurring, we can get an idea of what is likely to happen next. In terms of the wave count, and impulse structure, the Wave 1 high was 9074, and so far the current Wave 4 low is 9280 which means no over lap. As long as Wave 4 does not go into the area of Wave 1, the transition to Wave 5 is still very reasonable, especially since price is not much lower than the 9604 support level (.382 of recent bullish structure). Buying into this type of price action in anticipation of the bullish reversal is aggressive, especially since there are no confirmations of momentum changing, only a tightening range which just acts as a heads up. The more conservative play is to wait for a decisive break and close above 10256 minor resistance level (.382 of current bearish swing). This level adjusts as price action pushes lows and serves as a gauge to determine when momentum is much more favorable for longs. IF the current bearish momentum persists, and price pushes into the Wave 1 area, the impulse wave will be negated and I will view this market as being within a broader consolidation, which is not to be mistaken for a bearish condition. As long as price does not push new lows (below 6K) I will be looking for reversal patterns at the predetermined support levels to add to my long. The consolidation premise helps me to adjust my near term profit targets lower to the 11Ks which keeps my expectations within the boundaries of the market structure instead of optimistic targets based on feelings. In the broader consolidation scenario, I want to see how price behaves within the 8171 to 7239 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). This is a predetermined support that over laps the 8171 to 4983 major support zone that is the .618 area relative to the entire bullish structure of this market. In range bound markets, broader supports AND resistances tend to hold and I will look to capitalize on that if it unfolds this way. This price action is NOT enough to change my over all outlook to bearish. In summary, price is still in a good position to form a higher low and rally to the 13Ks. Whether you are position trading or swing trading, you must always be aware of where price is on the road map and what to anticipate if the condition changes. Less experienced traders get stuck on a "one scenario" idea, and get bent out of shape when the market does not comply. This focus on being "right" is irrelevant. Timing any financial market requires that we make decisions and take risks in the face of limited information. The only way to thrive in this type of environment is by learning to accept new information and adjust to it which forces us to accept that the market is always "right". The best we can do is measure, evaluate, compare and then decide if the market is in line with our criteria, enough to justify taking a risk, or not. This is why it is so important to follow your OWN criteria and use outside analysis to supplement your own, not to replace it. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
BTCUSD: Is 9600 Support Low Of Next Swing? BTCUSD update: Since the bearish pin bar off of the 11700 area price, has been retracing and has tested the 9600 level to produce a spinning top formation. This can be the beginning of the next bullish leg which can test the 11700 peak or higher. In order to justify a long position, I would wait for particular conditions to unfold first. Maybe now you know why I locked in 15% of my position off the 11700 peak. I did not know for sure that price was going to retrace back to the 9600 area, but I saw the signs of selling, and recognized the potential. Now that price is finding support at this level (.382 of recent bullish swing), is this the time to start buying or adding back to my position trade? It is too early to tell. A spinning top formation is not a reversal candle. It just indicates a potential change. On top of that, the candle has not closed yet which means it can still close bearish. There are many different formations that can occur at this location that can prompt for a new position, but each formation carries its own degree of risk. For example, a spinning top close followed by the break of its high is a bullish trigger, but not the most reliable, which doesn't mean it won't work. Taking a trade like that all depends on your risk profile. Also this trigger would offer an attractive swing trade opportunity since risk can be quantified by the 9600 level. The short term target would be around the 11500 area which puts reward/risk at around 4:1 (assuming a 10K area entry). A more conservative plan is to wait for a higher low formation, and/or close above the 10429 level (.382 of current bearish swing). By waiting, you get less attractive prices, but you are entering with momentum clearly in your favor. This is more appropriate for my position trade since I plan to add about 30% more. The target for this trade is the mid 13Ks to 14K area since it is looking to capitalize on the broader move. One advantage to having the position trade is even if there is no clear entry, and I never add, I am still long and benefiting from any bullish momentum that materializes. I am also willing to take the risks associated with this type of position as well. By the way, I get a lot of requests to include wave counts on my charts. I am always aware of relevant counts, but show them on my chart when they are clear and offer insight rather than confusion. This situation offers that type of clarity with the current low fitting into a minor Wave 4 bottom. Which means this count is now inline with the broader bullish premise behind this market. This type of impulse wave, especially when the market is in a Wave 4, is the simplest and most effective way to use Elliott Wave in my opinion. Since 3 waves must be in place and adhere to the impulse wave rules, Wave 4 becomes the easiest wave to anticipate. In summary, it is important to keep in mind that just because this market is showing the possible beginnings of the next bullish leg, it does not guarantee there will be follow through. IF this candle closes bearish (it can happen), especially below the 9600 level, the next possibility is a retest of the 8171 to 7239 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing) which overlaps the broad support zone that I have been writing about for weeks. If price has trouble pushing the minor 10429 level, the bearish scenario becomes more likely. In this situation, I will wait for the lower supports to be reached and then look for broader reversal formations to add to my position. I am holding this trade for a broader move and willing to take the associated risks. I like to think of this as managing and building inventory until peak season, and this strategy will work as long as my long term premise holds true. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
ETHUSD: Bearish Momentum Retesting Minor Supports. Buy Signal?ETHUSD update: Minor support area near 1291 being tested while there is no significant reversal structure in sight. Based on the current price action, this retrace can be labeled as a sub wave 4 which implies one more attempt at the highs before a broader correction is reasonable to expect. For those who are newer to utilizing TA, it is important to understand what is offers and what it doesn't. We are evaluating price action to get an estimate of what the market is more likely to do in the near future. It is also important to understand that TA is a process that assists with making more structured decisions when it comes to your trading strategy. It is NOT a strategy substitute. Many participants that are new to the world of speculation often think TA and trading strategy are the same process. I emphasize this idea because this market is fluctuating around a level that offers some opportunity, but it depends on the scope of the strategy you are employing. The 1291 level is a minor support that is the .382 of the recent bullish swing measured from the 1069 low. In strong markets, supports often hold, but simply buying because price is at a projected level is not enough. This is where strategy comes in. Based on my swing trade strategy, this level offers better reward/risk (especially compared to buying it at 1424). What is missing is the confirmation which I evaluate in the form of a reversal pattern such as a double bottom, failed low or pin bar (see example just above the 1069 support level). IF the market can construct a reversal in this area over the next day, then it would offer a chance for a swing trade aiming to capture the next leg up to test the 1540 resistance level (sub wave 5). Otherwise, based on structure at the moment, price is poised to retest the 1206 to 1152 minor support zone which is the .618 area of the recent bullish swing. This zone along with the lower support levels like the 1069 area, or even the 872 to 739 zone offer more attractive opportunities for longer time horizon strategies such as position trades. An important bearish sign to watch that implies the broader correction is in play is IF price breaks below the 1152 lower support boundary. IF that happens, it would be reasonable to expect a retest of the 1069 or lower which offers the opportunity to WAIT for a position trade once price reestablishes stability. Often I will get questions about shorting when I write about lower price possibilities. The reward/risk was attractive for shorts at the time of writing, but there was no confirmation. Eventually a confirmation developed (break of spinning top low), but that is something you must recognize and be within the scope of your trading plan. I do not short these markets because I prefer not to trade on margin, but if I was playing the short side, it would be on much shorter time frames. I would rather take smaller profits and keep risk low on the short side of a bigger picture bullish market. Another thing to keep in mind is IF this market can't build a reversal structure around the 1291 area, and retests the low 1200s, it will negate the smaller impulse wave. This implies the next attempt to retest the high (would be sub wave 5) will more likely unfold as a lower high which I would interpret as a very bearish sign. In summary it is important to keep your evaluation and trade processes separate. TA offers a framework for price evaluation, while the trade process offers a framework to define reward/risk, entry/exit criteria and time horizon. Everything is an estimate, and it is our RESPONSIBILITY to adjust to the market as it CHANGES hence the use of the word "IF". TA helps to interpret these changes in a way that is relevant to market intentions, and not our thoughts or feelings. Buying a retrace in a strong market is a best practice, but it requires a more rigorous process in order to time that position in a more beneficial way relative to risk. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
Neo; Short Term CorrectionNeo just completed five sub-waves, and after 5 waves, a correction occurs. The correction usually is between the 0.382 and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. We can open a short position with a tight stop just above the peak and a target at the 0.382 Fib retracement level, which gives us over 1:5 risk to reward ratio. That means, we only have to be right about 1/6 of the time to make this trade profitable. If we zoom out and look at the bigger picture, we see that Neo is only on intermediate wave 3. It has one more wave to go, and it will likely bring us another all time high. We set our buyback zone according to the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.382 and 0.618.
BITFINEX:NEOUSDShort
by aoeuaoeu
Zcash Long to $900+I've counted the Elliott waves, and I have only spotted 3 completed waves so far. That means that ZEC should experience some more correction in wave 4 before exploding up again. ZEC already completed subwaves A (12345 impulse) and B (abcde rising wedge). Wave C should start soon, and should be a downwards 12345 impulse. Of course, there is a possibility of further corrections in the form of WXY, but in that case, the corrections would be small and contained. My conservative target is $820, a 1 to 1 Extension of wave 1, and my aggressive target is $905, a 1.618 Fibonacci Extension of wave 1. I believe that ZEC will likely hit the 1.618 Fib Extension, because waves 1 and 3 were about the same length. According to Elliott Wave guidelines (not rules), wave 5 will often be extended.
BITFINEX:ZECUSDLong
by aoeuaoeu
1
BTG, another price surge is possibleBTG just started wave 4, and it will experience corrections for the next few days (or hours) before the next surge. According to Elliott Wave guidelines, wave 5 will likely be extended when wave 1 and wave 3 are the same length. With a conservative 1.272 Fibonacci Extension, we get a target of $544. $600 is totally within the horizon. Also, the price is unlikely to go lower as wave 4 never retraces to wave 1. This gives us a low risk opportunity to load up on BTG. Note: We may or may not get a second bounce in the buy zone. That is just one possibility.
BLong
by aoeuaoeu
2
BTC Correction to 14200, then an Explosion to 17200!Wave 3 of the recent surge in Bitcoin 13.41% has been extremely strong, exceeding even the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension . However, we see a rising wedge , which is also a ending diagonal and the 5th sub-wave of wave 3. Also, the RSI is showing bearish divergence. All these factors point to a temporally correction. Remember, the price never goes up forever; there are always dips. We can use these opportunities to buy or add to our position. With a 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement , we get a target of 14160. It will likely retrace to the 0.382 because wave 2 retraced to the 0.618 level. However, that is only a guideline and still has a small chance of retracing to 0.5 or 0.618 level. Our target is a 1 to 1 Extension of wave 1, which is 17200. Nonetheless, the price will likely go much higher; 17200 is our conservative target.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by aoeuaoeu
3
Bitcoin - Next target is down at 7,611My preferred count shows that Bitcoin peaked with the test of 11,395 in wave (3) and wave (4) now is developing. Wave A decline to 9,250 and wave B, which has turned into an expanding flat correction, is expected to peak near 10,905, with an outside chance of making it to 11,227 before tuning lower in wave C. A break below minor support at 10,393 will indicate that wave C is developing. After an expanded flat correction either in wave 2 or B the following wave likely will be an extended wave and a 161.8% extension of wave A calls for a decline in wave C towards 7,611. This is also close or at the mid-line of the first pitchfork. Stay tuned for some high volatility swings in the weeks ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
5
Bitcoin - Time to be fearfulThe buying frenzy in Bitcoin, just continues to push it higher and higher. There is no time to correct properly. The rally is now close to being vertical, which isn't a good thing. I was look for this rally to may extend to 10,768 and here we are. However, the extreme buying frenzy could push Bitcoin into the 11,073 - 11,627 area, but it's time to become fearful and take a contrarian approach. Yesterday the Danish news ran a story about a mom, that had bought Bitcoin from her son's savings account. I'm not saying it's not a good investment, but that is a sign to me, to become very fearful. A break below minor support at 9,848 will indicate that wave (3) has peaked and wave (4) towards at least 6,700 is developing. As wave (2) was a deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a time-consuming and complex sideways correction in wave (4). Tighten up your stops!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
13
Bitcoin - The final swings of wave (3) developingBitcoin has seen a phenomenal rally in wave (3). Only a year ago it traded near 755 against the USD and now it hovers near 8,100. I'm still looking for a little more upside closer to 9,150, but the best part of the rally in wave (3) is now behind us. As wave (2) was a simple, but deep zig-zag correction, we should expected wave (4) to be a complex structure in the form of a flat or a triangle consolidation and it should be relatively shallow compared to wave (2). But a relatively shallow correction of 38.2% of wave (3), will still mean a decline close to 5,800.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EWS
Facebook - Peak expected near 187.17Facebook has seen an amazing rally since the September 2012 low at 17.55. This wave rally should be close to completion - Ideally near 187.17 for a correction in wave . As wave was a simple and deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a complex and shallow correction in wave . The ideal target for this wave correction is seen in the 114.77 - 115.93 area. The corrective structure of wave should be either a flat or a triangle consolidation. If the corrective structure proves to be a triangle, then the low will be seen early (likely in the A-wave down). Short-term a break below minor support at 168.89 will be a good indication that Facebook has peaked in wave and wave is developing. So tighten up your stops and don't fall in love with Facebook at these levels.
NASDAQ:META
by EWS
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: How Low Can It Go?BTCUSD update: 7030 is touched as price attempts to retrace after the relentless rally. The big question: Is this the beginning of the big correction that everyone has been waiting for? Or just another shallow retrace? I will refer to Elliott Wave in order to get an idea of what is reasonable to expect. After the consolidation breakout which eventually got labeled as a Wave 4, the count for the 5th wave is pretty clear. The current retrace puts us in 4 of 5 which implies there is a chance that we get one more attempt at new highs before the BIG correction. We are now 10 days away from the fork, which makes for plenty of time for a retrace, a reversal and one more push toward 8k. As I wrote about in my previous report, there are extension overlaps in the 7900 to 8k area which makes it a convenient potential peak. So if I were shorting (to be clear I am not), I would not be too aggressive with target expectations on this leg. 6840 is the nearest support which happens to be the .382 of the recent bullish swing measured from the 5632 low. That level may offer a swing trade opportunity long if a smaller time frame reversal pattern can appear there. If that initial support breaks, the next support is the 6640 level, which is the .382 area of the bullish structure measured from the 5114 low ( previous Wave 4 low). IF price actually retests any one of these supports, and a bullish reversal formation shows up on a smaller time frame like the 1 hour, these would present attractive reward/risk opportunities. The key to this is the bullish reversal formation (like a double bottom) which provides a reference point to measure risk from. Without that, we are just bottom fishing. The mistake you want to avoid is jumping in too early. This is an easy mistake to make without any point of reference or too much focus on smaller time frames while attempting to swing trade. For me, the entry process begins with the level, and if price is not at a level that I have defined previously, then I have no reason to do anything else. Once it reaches a level then I move on to the next step which is to evaluate the chart patterns. What if price never makes it to a level and reverses sooner? That can happen, and that is not a trade that I will participate in. I am looking for opportunities that fit within my criteria for my swing trading plan. This keeps my decision making simple and helps to minimize any emotional tendencies like forcing trades because I am afraid to miss the next move up. How do we know this is not the big correction? I am anticipating that it is not because of the fork in 10 days. I believe many of the investors who missed out will see this as an opportunity to get on board the money train before it goes to 10k (which is what all the hype is telling them). That may be enough to get this market to retest the high which will complete Wave 5 of 5. After that, any correction like this and I will be expecting much lower levels. Anything can happen and I could be wrong, but that is what I am going by until the market proves otherwise, In summary, the current retrace is perfectly normal and still very shallow at the moment (relative to this market). This exact price action is why I do not buy at 7500 even though this market still has a chance to run to 8k. I am willing to take a long swing trade at the 6840 level or 6640 level if price action cooperates (and risk can be clearly defined) and hold it only for an attempt of retesting the high. Wave 4's are typically the easiest wave to forecast because 3 waves have to be in place which is the scenario at the moment. Since swing trading means a trade can go on for days, it is a tougher strategy to employ in this market because of how quickly things change. So for now I will wait to see if the market can reach my predefined levels and then evaluate the chart patterns from there. Be patient and be flexible. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
37