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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

VIX $2.9 Trillion wiped on recession fears. Is the worst over?The much lower than expected Nonfarm Payrolls today (114k against a 176k forecast) amplified the global recession concerns and wiped out $2.9 trillion from the stock markets, making it the worst day since the 2020 COVID crash. With Nasdaq down almost -12% from its recent peak, investors are more or less convinced of the necessity of a September Fed Rate cut in order to restore confidence in the market. But is the worst over yet? Well, lets take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX), which last time we analyzed it (April 16, see chart below), helped us take the most optimal buy entry on the stock market as it got rejected right at the top of its 10-month Channel Down: Today VIX was up almost +90% from its daily Low, displaying enormous market volatility. It is useful in times like these to look at the multi-year price action in order to keep an objective technical perspective. As this 1W chart shows, a VIX price this high is a rare feat since the 2008 Housing Crisis. In fact the break-out above the Channel Down resembles the Highs of December 24 2018 and October 13 2014 (blue circles). Those that been the lowest levels of alerts on the VIX scale, with the medium ones being the orange circles and the worst ones being the red (only happened twice: October 20 2008 and the COVID crash of March 16 2020). At the same time, the 1W RSI just broke above the 70.00 Overbought barrier, which has only happened another 6 times since the 2008 Housing Crisis. It is easy to understand as a result, that this VIX spike has more chances to be corrected in the coming weeks than ending up in a larger stock market correction. On our current chart, the stock market is represented by the S&P500 (black trend-line). As you can see, a strong recovery (green Channel Up) followed after the blue VIX peaks. In the event however that this turns out to be an orange VIX peak next week, the S&P500 is expected to start recovering within 4-6 weeks. Which case do you think it will be? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
3
The Fear Index and Geopolitical TensionsIn an era marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, the fear index emerges as a crucial tool for traders seeking to navigate turbulent markets. This article delves into the historical significance of the fear index, exploring pivotal moments like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1973 Oil Crisis, and the 2008 Financial Crisis. By understanding how investor psychology and market sentiment intertwine with the fear index, traders can gain a competitive edge. In today's world, marked by unprecedented geopolitical tensions, understanding the fear index has never been more crucial. As global conflicts escalate, the fear index provides essential insights into market sentiment and helps risk managers navigate through these turbulent times. A Geopolitical Powder Keg We are witnessing a convergence of significant geopolitical events: Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have far-reaching implications for global stability. Middle Eastern Volatility: Potential for a full-scale war involving major powers like Israel, the U.S., and Iran. Sino-Taiwanese Tensions: Threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with severe repercussions for the semiconductor industry and global economy. Pro-Palestinian Protests: These could escalate into widespread violence, further destabilizing the political and economic landscape. The Role of the Fear Index The fear index, often measured by market volatility, acts as a barometer of investor sentiment in the face of these geopolitical risks. By closely monitoring the fear index, risk managers can gain early warnings of market disruptions and develop strategies to mitigate potential crises. Historical Context Historical precedents show how the fear index responds to geopolitical tensions: Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): Stock markets plummeted due to heightened anxiety, underscoring the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment. 1973 Oil Crisis: The Arab-Israeli War and subsequent oil embargo led to global economic downturns, reflecting the fear index's potential spike during such crises. 9/11 Attacks: The fear index surged as markets reacted to the unprecedented nature of the terrorist attacks. 2008 Financial Crisis: Global financial instability caused a dramatic increase in the fear index, providing early warnings of the impending market collapse. COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic's economic halt saw the fear index spike, signaling early disruptions. Methodologies for Calculation Understanding how the fear index is calculated enhances its utility: Volatility Indexes (e.g., VIX): Measure implied market volatility. Sentiment Analysis: Assess sentiment through news and social media. Investor Behavior Metrics: Analyze options trading and margin debt levels. Combining these approaches offers a comprehensive view of market fear in response to geopolitical tensions. The Psychological Impact Investor behavior during geopolitical crises is influenced by: Loss Aversion: Heightened sensitivity to potential losses. Herd Mentality: Following the crowd amplifies reactions. Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the probability of easily recalled events. Strategic Applications Risk managers must adopt a holistic approach, integrating the fear index with geopolitical and economic data to develop robust contingency plans. While the fear index can't predict crises' exact timing or magnitude, it provides valuable early warnings to prepare for potential disruptions. Conclusion The fear index is indispensable for navigating today's geopolitically charged environment. By monitoring market sentiment and identifying emerging trends, you can protect your investments from unforeseen events and build resilience. Embrace the insights offered by the fear index to stay ahead in these volatile times.
CBOE:VIXLong
by signalmastermind
VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market? #AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet. The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course. But the speculation and new companies will. 20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone. Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
TVC:VIXShort
by BallaJi
1
Long $UVXY 6x- 20x gains ahead?Finally got the reversal I've been looking for in $UVXY. My entry was at $23 and I think we have a large move ahead of us. If we look at the chart, we have our first green flat bottomed Heikin Ashi candle. Normally with a move like today's people are exiting puts and shorting UVXY, but I think this move is just starting and vol is about to become unpinned. Over the coming 1-2 months, I think we can see 6x-20x gains through UVXY. I'm looking for price to test at a minimum the $168 level and reach a potential high of $457. I'll start taking profits in the $168-242 range and see if we can get all the way up to the top of the range. Playing this both through a large spot position and through options. Let's see what happens in the coming months.
CBOE:UVXY
by benjihyam
81
How to read the VIX properly This video explains the VIX indicator, how I use it to guide my trading decisions, and my perspective on the market. You can download the TradingView indicator for free, as it is open-source. Additionally, I'll provide a link to my Thinkorswim version in the YouTube video description. The VIX is an excellent tool for market guidance, based on options trading activity 30 days out on the S&P 500. It indicates market fear when it rises due to increased options buying and selling. Thank you for watching! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to share them—I enjoy discussing these topics. No indicator is perfect, but I use this one daily to gauge the market.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by PappyTrading
Macro View Shows 2-4 Month Max And Then It Starts!Traders, Some rather ominous signs are showing in various markets not least of which includes the U.S. housing market. As you know, we have been periodically tracking the USHMI as a key leading indicator to show us where and when our coming U.S. (perhaps global) recession begins. We are close if we have not already begun, but I imagine there will be no ability for denial in about 2-4 months time. Before then, markets may continue to blow off and I still expect Bitcoin to hit our 85k target. Today we'll review our USHMI chart along with other key charts for further clues mapping future trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
BITCOIN vs VIX. This is why it will rally!We usually consult the Volatility Index (VIX) when attempting to project movements on stock indices. But as recent price actions reveals, it can work equally well on predicting the trend on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). Take BTC's Channel Up for example on the 1W time-frame. VIX (black trend-line) has started a consolidation phase (green ellipse) following a strong decline in mid-April to mid-May. Since the November 2022 market bottom, VIX posts this consolidation pattern before it typically rallies. That is technically not just some rally but the Bullish Leg of this long-term Channel Up formation. As a result, with VIX consolidating, it could only be a matter of time before Bitcoin starts the new rally to new All Time Highs. What do you think? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
8
Stocks Good. Crypto Meh. And I Am Pulling My Stops.Traders, Market makers continue to torture crypto longs but their time is growing short. The U.S. stock market continues to press higher, led by mega-corp giants like NVidia. It is simply a matter of time before crypto follows. In the meantime though, I am tired of playing this game with MMs. For the first time since creating my public portfolio, I've decided to pull out all of the stops on my long entries. I am going to pop a few cold ones and chill for the weekend. I just don't want to play that game anymore. But please. Don't take any of this as financial advice per usual. You do you. I am only here to entertain you all with my poor choices.
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
it seems to start a new ascending rollyHi there, We gave you a buy position on yellow metal last week and it hit the SL but analysis and path prediction was correct. Anyway we are watching 2 similar paths on XAUUSD that both of them will finish with breaking the highest top price. 1. The 4th wave of 3rd wave of big ascending wave has been finished and we should buy again in support level such as 2300-2305 to above of 2450. It is more probably. 2. The 'a' wave of 4th wave of 3rd wave of big ascending wave has been finished and we will see the breaking lowest price of last week until 2260-2240 and after that price start to growth. Based on Eliot wave measurements, this has more chance. So what are you doing? We powerfully suggest you be patient and careful, firstly. if you have buy position please remain it until 2375 or 2290. We could above of 2375 buy again with the triger in m15 timeframe and sell it below of 2290 until 2265, 2252 and 2240 by trailing. We have 2 suggestions: 1. Buy it on 2302 +-2$ with TP 2380 and 2450 SL 2288 2. Consider to our XAGUSD analysis in trading view, because buying it has more worthy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by takeprofitwithus
Large correction coming soon? $VXX is the play.If you've been following me for a while, you know that I've been warning of a crash for some period of time, and now I think we're within weeks of that playing out. I've largely been bullish for the past year, with periods where I thought things might fall, but now all of my upside targets for BTC have been hit (minus GETTEX:54K which is still possible) and stocks are looking like they're on their last leg higher. While I'm very bullish over the long-term (into 2027), I think that the rest 2024 will be bearish (which would catch a majority of the market off guard as everyone is expecting a top to be put in by the end of this year). They're not really expecting for the rest of the year to be bearish and for 2025-2027 to be the real bull run. This is my base case. I've been watching VXX for sometime, and I think we're very close to the levels where we'll see a reaction higher. I think over the next couple of weeks, some data will come out that sends VXX into a capitulation move lower, down to the $12-13 supports that are on the chart. Those levels will be great levels to buy some calls. I'll be buying June $20 + $25C as I think those will provide the best risk/reward for this move, if it is to play out. Let's see if it plays out.
CBOE:VXXLong
by benjihyam
1
VIX Remains Rangebound ....for nowThe VIX remains rangebound and in very good territory all things considering geopolitically and globally. No one can predict the future with 100% certainty but as long as there isn’t any earth-shattering news, fear will probably remain low, given the exception of U.S. election shenanigans coming up. Be aware here that my prediction is that at the last second (and really when it is far too late) they will pull Biden out of the race. Many will not be expecting this (though, I am astounded at how they will not) and it will cause massive volatility in our markets again before settling down. But we have all summer and into the fall before we begin to see some of this occur.
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
VIX soars after hitting levels unseen since November 2019After returning to a level unseen since November 2019, the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) soared nearly 30% within a matter of seven days. In the process, it broke above the resistance indicated by the lower bound of the fan pattern that we have been observing since late December 2023. On top of that, yesterday, VIX formed an opening gap, and today another one. Illustration 1.01 Above is the daily graph of the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX). The yellow arrow indicates a breakout through the lower bound of the fan pattern, acting previously as resistance and now as support. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIX
by Tradersweekly
2
Here's What You Can Expect On Wall Street & In The Crypto SpaceThere are no surprises with the U.S. dollar, vix, gold, precious metals, commodities, and stocks. Everything is right on track. We are nearing our SPY blow-off top target of 570-600, but we have some time to hit that before the U.S. election charades and the future recession. We'll review these things and then focus on what price action will look like in the coming weeks for the crypto space. Plus, I have added an extra video for my members in which I'll review the current altcoin entries we are in. I'll let you know clearly what my sentiment and strategy is for trading these coins, a few of which have 3-4x targets! Quickly, I believe our local low in the altcoin space is in and we are going to pop soon. Some coins will fare much better than others. I want you in those coins. Let's go!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus