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Bitcoin and U.S. elections. What does the past tell us?Undoubtedly the most important event of the upcoming week are the U.S. Presidential elections. We have seen in the past the high impact that the result has on the financial markets and Bitcoin is no exception, especially in late years where it is more correlated with the stock market than ever before. So how did Bitcoin trade during the past two U.S. Presidential elections and what hint that gives us for the current one? ** 1D time-frame ** Looking at the three bottom charts, we have (from right to left) the price of BTC during the 2012, 2016 and 2020 (current) elections on the 1D time-frame. As you see on all three occasions the price is trading above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is a strong indicator of a bullish trend. What is more interesting than that, is the fact that both on the day of the 2012 and 2016 elections, the price was +17% higher that the 1D MA200. Assuming the same pattern holds this time (2020) too, then Bitcoin should be around 12000 on the election day (November 03, 2020). ** 1W time-frame ** The upper chart is the price of BTC on the 1W time-frame. As you see it has been above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) on all three occasions, which indicates strong long-term bullish bias. As on the 1D chart, what is even more interesting than this, is the fact that both in 2012 and 2016 the time from the day of the elections until the next Cycle Top, was roughly 400 days. Assuming the same pattern is followed, we could have a top in December 2022. Whether that's an interim top or a final Cycle Top, it is unknown but being a final top would go against Bitcoin's theory of lengthening cycles. But it is a good benchmark to follow for long-term investors seeking hints on when/ where to take profits. Do you think a 12k price on the election day is a bottom? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> TradingView --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BNC:BLX
by TradingShot
21
Somebody tell Jerome Powell that the market is brokenThe US is in a crossroad. The FED has repeatedly insisted that fiscal stimulus is necessary for recovery but politics has taken center-stage. The Fed's balance sheet is now at a record high but investors aren't buying yet. Pelosi and Kudlow are still moving slowly to agreeing on a deal and that is having a negative effect of the equity markets. The US election is also having an impact as no one knows who might win this time round. To make matters worse, we can't trust the polls, courtesy of 2016. In addition to this, the US is in the third wave of covid19 cases. Therefore, from now to next week, I'll be only looking for selling opportunities. The S&P500 is currently holding on the February 2020 pivot High and it is unlikely it's going to bounce back.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
EURAUD Surge on the way !!the exotic pair traded in a side ways ranging market for a long period of time, last week we witnessed a breakout to the upside in which a bullish momentum is gained. a retest was made by the pair during the Asian session today!! and the critical level acted as a great support. a potential bounce can be seen from the current levels or from 1.6505 level. the stop loss to this trade is a 4 hours candle closing below 1.6400 level with a great risk to reward ratio, since we are waiting this pair to target 1.7000 as a first target
Long
by josephdahrieh
Goldy's 2050 adventure (Updated!)Traders, gamblers and the rest of the financial market riffraff, I salute you. What an awesome week it was, raining pips all over the place in goldyland and we scooped it up and down like we have been working in a gelateria in one of the alleyways of Rome. The coming week will be decisive for gold as we have been stuck in this beautiful range for too long and we are nearing the end of the apex of the triangle. The volume is increasing, the moves are getting bigger by the day, you can feel the tension building up in the charts. Time to dig in the charts yo. So let's start with the latest COT-report. Strongly bullish is all I can say. We have a record-breaking 340k longs opened in total on gold with 13k new longs opened last week by large speculators! As we all know, the large speculators (hedge funds, banks) are the real market movers as the market is mostly driven by speculation. Basically what this means is that traders are speculating on a Trump victory as the dollar COT report looks mildly bearish again with 2k longs closed but no shorts added. Now the confusing part... I personally expect a bullish dollar in the coming weeks, as we are nearing the Monthly bullish defenseline again for DXY and the risk remains high on stocks, but I am also bullish on gold on the medium term. What to make out of this mess? We simply follow what the market is giving us on a weekly basis. For the coming week I expect some minor downside for gold to 1870-1880 so goldy can finish wave 2. This is an awesome buying opportunity for 1965. If the volume is high enough and if we get to see a stimulus deal agreed upon combined with the re-election of Trump, the bulls can push it through to 1993 without even looking back. A one way rocket to heaven. A supersonic Maglev bull train. A raging bull on steroids. Well you get my point... Basically what I am saying is, this is a trade not to be missed. Enjoy your weekend and don't forget to spend some time with your loved ones. The weekend is a precious time for traders to re-energize and the only time for most of us to spend it with the people we care about. Spend it wisely. Abbracci, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
1
DXY Strength for 2020/ 2021Hello traders, analysts. Here is our take on the DXY - referring to the Dollar strength index - which relates to consumer confidence within the United states. While our charts show less about how the fundamental side affects the setups - the purpose of our view is to show while yes; The election coronvirus - now affecting Trump directly. Trade stalemate with China US stimulus Internal race division as well as globalisation, US intermediating new Middle east issues. All of which hang in the balance - but can be used to solidify the position held. We have our target for Long positions with long positions only - with take profit around 99 price level for those trading short-term and intraday forex trading strategies, ofcourse sells are possible. There is a lot of room for the Dollar Index to keep on rallying and will be into 2021 before we see a profit target hit. There is nothing to prevent the Dollar Index from the bullish movements. So long as the higher highs are maintained . The eyes - are sell targets The eyes - are potential buy zones. it depends on your outlook. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes and now donations . Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:DXYLong
by LupaCapital
EUR USD vs DXY - shortHello Traders and analysts, We are currently in sells - Here is our take on EUR USD - weekly chart We added the DXY for reference in Blue The eyes - are sell targets The eyes - are potential buy zones. it depends on your outlook. The US - will be pivotal for investors during the election process. EU - concerned about over valued currency in 2020 as they look to unwind the Brexit divorce. Looking at the key markings, the blue level shows us a strong monthly top - where price will look to either retest or fall back to 1.10 - a most likely scenario, with the probabilities in play. DXY- if the euro attempts 1.19 area, the DXY will respond to 92.XX and then push up. We tend to hold trades for a while and de-risk in terms of leverage - this is important. It is also crucial to ignore ideas which conflict against the trading plan set out. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
S&P vs Russell 2000Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 Small Cap. It is important here is to note; that the peak of the hull for SPX has hit our island zone where price has shown a full retracement in the V shaped recovery and extended a little to provide great returns for long investors and over offered market conditions. The cycle to us looks complete. Note: This zone now between 3600 - 3400 is a strong supply but has potential to retest 3700 for the full Fibonacci extension. however the signs with the volatility index and yields are now showing signs of clusters of building a nice level of discounted levels. Where as the SPX, NAS and world indices are seeing over exposed with a strong imbalance. Now we let the price and market show us where opportunities present itself to look for shorts. Enjoy. Fore more sub text - read below; Technicals: 1. Looking back to 2000, 2008 - the dotcom, financial banking crisis and now 'Covid' - we can see a nice megaphone pattern which has emerged looking back since February 2018. We have completed the the downward impulse of the wave pattern 1-5, with all waves forming without breaking the structure. we are now in the minor wave 2 structure. and next up is the 5 wave corrective structure and looking to complete wave on the trendline . 2. From an imbalance method, we have a good double top retest which is showing profit and greed taking helped on from the Fed and using Fibonacci extension - price can over shoot to create an upper supply zone . Price has seen a bounce back to 'normal priced of demand' however this is not really how halted economies can return so fast. it is artificial. Divergence - we did not use this but looking at the pattern, we have a huge distinguishing gap. However this keeps widening - whilst we do not look at the divergence indicator, it does show a good area for sells - and according to RSI - we are not there yet technically speaking 80 zone is a major sell. 3. Looking at the VIX - the dollar is weakening to a 90-91 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards. Check out or Vix for long inverse 4. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - enter volatility state We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding - constantly.. High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 28,500 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. - this is now being challenged Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crisis Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. The reason for these charts is show the detail behind the thought process. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment or even donate. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
1
EUR goes UP?EUR will go on at least 2 Months go UP it may go to 1.2 or even to 1.25 or it may stay in a sideway channel. It might go down as well but before the end of October it is very low probability. On Weekly and Daily charts EUR confirmed uptrend by crossing downtrend line so its confirmation of strong trend reversal? But on the other hand RSI goes down, price up (divergence shows EUR goes down?) Both EUR and USD is bad and weak but USD is just way more weak than current EUR?? thus it goes UP? Because in 60 days are US elections so that trend will continue more one or two months and EUR goes UP?
by SunnyMorning
FA BTC bullish till 1-2 month prior to US elections + Education?hello traders, Today at 2.00 H we witnessed a huge selloff witch triggered massive sell of and liquidations across exchanges. Hope you did ok., me i missed the dump by 30 minutes. Never mind, now i plan to rebuild positions for the long run to 13-16.25K. If it goes there or not, is not a question me thinks (anything higher till elections it will be a surprise) I say it will hit 16457, but usually am wrong by 200-300 USD which usually cost me a lot (at 9.15K i was convinced it will go to 9.366 before sell of, it went 200 less, now i was convinced of 10366, went just to 10066) so there you go the top should in this case be 16457-300= 16150, So lets get to the point. We plan to build positions in period of 45-90 days, Maj, June and July. Then we will took some profits next 3-4 month, August, September, October (full out), then let it be dumpling till 15 November like it does almost every year, with no exception of this year, especially bcs this year is US elections set for November. FA elections: Usually currency in this case USD could act as being bearish till 1- 1.5 month till elections, so stocks and everything pumps to new highs or whatever, and unemployment to go down in this time as well bcs of Covid being diminished (inject VIT. C not washing stuff) that is why China has 3K death on a 2B population (me thinks), anyway everybody feels good, making money doing nothing (with stocks, crypto etc..)+ having more jobs then in corona times, economy is saved etc., then the top should happen when the news will be full of US elections stuff who leads where who wants war who does not, who has a hot wife who does not and stuff like that, Currency starts to appreciate, usually that is what happens with any election, and everybody starts pulling money out from high risk assets, called profit taking etc., and USD starts gaining so it could get us back to 11-12K level, where it should find support. p.s. Currency usually appreciate towards the election date to attract the voters , ... so this is the next big news to trade: buy the rumor which is US elections and sell the news , .....after the election., the USD bearishness should resume and new target will be set. other FA: FA printing 6Trillions USD FA Tether minting: that is if Tether is backed with USD, it means if USD is printing, tether is minting so it is following suit FA halving, less coins produced, bull after halving TA: Sars on Monthly showing 13K+, how far, how long will this last, no-one knows hope u find the FA usefull,..
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by dejc123
3
The US Midterm elections to drive the "Aussie"Trade Set up - In theory, tactically shorting the ‘Aussie’ around 0.7100, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000 level would make sense for technical trades, given the entry would be aligned to a strong underlying trend. That said, the big picture and set-up on the daily makes us cautious to take that trade, in fact, we would look to initiate a long entry if we see a daily close above 0.7160 level. Why we like it - The ‘Aussie’ has been trading a bearish trend on a technical basis since the beginning of the year and this trend appears to be very mature. We can see bullish divergence between price and (slow) stochastic momentum, suggesting a potential reversal could be in play. A close through 0.7160 would go someway to confirming this. The US Midterm elections next week could cause volatility in the market, and we see the risk to the USD skewed to the downside, which would support AUDUSD on its way higher. The Democrats appear to be ahead of Republicans to control the House and while this is likely in the price we could see FX speculators fad US exposures into this event risk. Large players might start closing profitable short AUDUSD positions ahead of the risk event, and this short covering fuels our bullish case for AUDUSD. For this trade to play out we need to see a daily candle close above 0.71600 level where buyers might step it, and our potentially bullish stance heightened on a close through the 55-day moving average. Traders should approach this trade tactically and way for the market to provide an opportunity for a long entry above 0.71600. Given the CPI data due on Wednesday traders should consider keeping their positions to a minimum. We have also explained the US Midterm election in this video Disclaimer Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
Long
by Pepperstone
1
U.S. elections: + 11.57%. Don't miss this buy opportunity.This chart illustrates the performance of the S&P500 index after each mid-term elections in the United States. We can see that since 1950, in the past 17 elections, the S&P has grown in the months that followed in 16 of these occasions. The only exception was after November 2002, when the index suffered -17.62% losses in the months that followed. The rest of the bullish sequences gave on average of +32.84%. If this time the S&P follows this pattern (+32.84%), then we get a projected target of 3,720. This is of course less realistic as this average takes into account periods (before 1998-2000) that the market was very different and less complex than it is today. It is safer therefore to calculate the average since 2006, a period not too far ago, much more similar to how we know the market today. So the past three post elections gains gave an average +11.47%. This is good news for long term investors, who can now safely go long on U.S. stocks. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SP:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
3
DJI - Profound analysis and upcoming important events.As noted in the chart provided, the downtrend persist but that can change sooner than later. The chart shows that November 1st will be a key day, for the reason I will explain below. The weekly DJI chart shows a bear market trend with oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) and near to support levels. Also, as noted in the chart weak hands have not been washed entirely yet, meaning that there could is a further downside risk. This applies to similar indexes like S&P and Nasdaq. Hisotrically, when weak hands are fully washed out the probability of a bull run is very high. Now any bounce is suspect but several positive factors are coming into play that call for a fair probability of a very short term bottom. - The market is about to enter a seasonally strong period. - Mid-term elections are ahead. Often elections remove uncertainty and the market goes up irrespective of who wins. - Interest rates are coming down after a spike. - Overall the U. S economy is staying strong. - If the Fed were to indicate that it will slow down raising rates, it will spark a massive rally in stocks. - President Trump and President Xi of China will be meeting next month. Optimism over a trade deal may drive a rally. Money flows: Tech stocks have been the market leaders. For this reason it makes sense to look at money flows in stocks such as Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Netflix. Semiconductors are the lifeblood of the modern economy. Semiconductor stocks have been hit hard. It makes sense to pay attention to money flows in stocks such as Intel, AMD, NVIDIA and Micron. - This market is under the control of the momo (momentum) crowd. For this reason it makes a lot of sense to pay attention to the momo crowd especially for the short term. - Smart money tends to have more consistent patterns than the momo crowd. Setting stock market technicals aside, there is a big headwind for the stock market that many investors have not noticed. The headwind is slowing earnings growth momentum. Why November 1st may be an important day for the market? United States is publishing the monthly ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and smart money will pay close attention to it. Apple will report earnings November 1st after the close. Whisper numbers for Apple are higher than the consensus numbers. Stocks move based on the difference between the whisper numbers and the reported numbers. If it falls, watch out below — but this warning has to be tempered because of the six factors that can ignite a rally explained above. Of course if Apple earnings are good, it may also ignite a rally, specially if weak hands have been fully washed and strong PMI is reported.
DJ:DJI
by sickgains
Gold VS Silver : Pick the right one either for long or short !The US election is taking place as I am writing these lines... As a protection, a lot of investors and traders are willing to add some gold (or silver) to their portfolio, which sounds like a great idea because of the uncertaincy of this very particular event. But on that strategy, you should be careful to the one you are picking, weither you go for long or short (depending on your own scenario of the vote outcome). Before the beginning of November, gold and silver were quite correlated. But since the 31st October, this correlation has changed : silver tends to get stronger than gold . Whatever the reason of that could be, here is the conclusion you should take for your precious metals' investments : - Better use Silver for long positions - Better use Gold for short positions Moreover, if you guys strongly believe that this situation will remain for the next few trading sessions, you can also try to initiate an arbitrage position : buying silver AND selling gold, so that you could take profits from the difference.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexandreNygal
1