WTI oil making its way to lowest point of this year?The commodity is near a key are of support right now, so let's see if today's US economic data can continue boosting the US dollar. If so, WTI oil may end up traveling further south.
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD TVC:USOIL
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DJ FXCM Index
DXY reached the critical resistance zone. H4 15.11.2024 DXY reached the critical resistance zone 📉
Honestly, I didn't think they would push the dollar index to the final zone near 107
without a pullback, but they still did. Now they gave a clear reaction downwards
and it is very possible that the correction has started. Of course, we cannot deny
the possibility of retesting the highs and then continuing the fall, but in general,
the first signs of reversal and culmination have already appeared. It is very desirable
to close the week below 106.30 and then the idea of a false
breakdown of the 2-year highs will be confirmed.
TVC:DXY
USD/JPY Analysis on the 1-Hour ChartIn this analysis of USD/JPY, we are currently observing an uptrend, with buyers maintaining control of the market. A key support zone, marked in green, has been identified as an area where buyers have previously stepped in to push the price higher.
While the price is not currently in this zone, our strategy anticipates a potential pullback to this support level. If the price returns to this green zone, it could attract buyers again, leading to a potential upward movement in line with the prevailing trend.
Trading Plan:
Long Positions: If the price retraces to the green support zone, look for confirmation of buyer interest, such as bullish candlestick patterns, an increase in buying momentum, or positive divergence. These signals could provide an opportunity to enter long positions.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly below the green support zone to manage risk in case the support fails to hold.
Profit Target: The first target would be the previous resistance level or the next significant resistance zone, where sellers may return.
This approach allows us to trade with the trend while maintaining a disciplined risk management strategy. Monitoring the price action closely around the green support zone is crucial for executing this idea effectively.
U.S.Dollar Chart Update !The US dollar recently broke above its descending triangle pattern and is testing a key horizontal supply zone. While it’s challenging this resistance, a potential pullback could still occur. The Ichimoku Cloud beneath provides strong support, reinforcing the bullish structure.
Given the dollar's inverse correlation with crypto, any decisive move could significantly impact broader market trends. Stay alert to shifts in momentum as they may signal changes in the crypto landscape.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and is not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed.
You can DM us for information on any other coin.
@Peter_CSAdmin
AUD/USD Reaches New Low: Technicals Highlight Bearish TrendThe AUD/USD pair has sunk below 0.65000, hitting a low of 0.64529, reflecting a persistent bearish trend for the Australian dollar. This decline aligns with the strong US dollar index at 106.4 amidst robust post-election performance. The RBA's steady interest rate at 4.35% and lackluster employment growth in Australia indicate ongoing economic pressures that may limit the Aussie’s recovery. Meanwhile, anticipated rate cuts by the Fed could introduce USD vulnerabilities, adding complexity to the pair's future trajectory. Traders should closely monitor economic indicators and central bank policies in both regions for potential market shifts.
DXY: Highly overbought on 1D. Excellent short.The U.S. Dollar Index has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.223, MACD = 0.950, ADX = 43.535) as the current weekly candle is only a few clicks away from the top of the 2 year consolidation Rectangle pattern. Even the 1W RSI (67.108) is about to turn overbought but has already reached the top of the 1 year R1 Zone. All the above create the conditions for the perfect long term short. Our target is the 1W MA200 (TP = 101.750), which supported the price during the bearish wave of July-August.
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USDJPY Bullish Cross on 1W MACD will push it higher.The USDJPY pair is having an excellent bullish run since our September 25 buy signal (see chart below), which was right at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up:
We're approaching our 161.800 long-term Target much faster than we expected but we've identified this time a short-term opportunity that can go along with the long-term one. We are past a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and when the previous Bullish Leg formed one on Aptil 14 2023, the price (which was already within a Channel Up) didn't stop the uptrend. On the contrary it extended it up until a little after a 1D Golden Cross was formed.
As a result we can target additionally 160.000 within a 2-month time-frame.
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DXY (USDOLLAR) - Correction Wave Pending
US Dollar is nearing completing Wave 1 and should go in correction for Wave 2 before loading a big Wave 3. Overall bias is Bullish due to many macro factors. This should provide a clarity on how other pairs will behave.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
What if the USD rally is only just getting started?The USD rally has entered its seventh week and continues to defy its seasonal tendency to weaken in Q4. And that is simply because the macro backdrop 'Trumps' its average performance this time of the year. Today I take a step back to admire the bigger-picture view of the USD index, to show why I think this rally could still just be getting started.
MS
The Impact of Emerging Markets on the Dollar amidst Looming TradThe recent shift in US political landscape has ignited a wave of uncertainty across global markets. A potential escalation of trade tensions with China and other key economies could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for the US dollar and emerging market currencies.
The Dollar's Uncertain Future
The US dollar, long considered a safe-haven asset, faces a crossroads. While a more protectionist stance could initially bolster the dollar's appeal, it could also trigger a chain reaction of economic consequences. Increased tariffs and trade barriers could lead to higher inflation, which could erode the dollar's purchasing power. Moreover, if the US economy weakens as a result of trade disputes, the dollar's demand as a safe-haven currency could diminish.
Emerging Markets in the Crossfire
Emerging market economies, which have often relied on exports to fuel their growth, are particularly vulnerable to escalating trade tensions. A trade war could disrupt global supply chains, increase the cost of imported goods, and reduce demand for emerging market exports. This could lead to currency devaluation, higher inflation, and slower economic growth.
Currency Pegs Under Pressure
Countries that peg their currencies to the US dollar, such as Hong Kong and some Middle Eastern nations, could face significant challenges. If the dollar weakens or strengthens significantly, it could put pressure on these currency pegs, forcing central banks to intervene to maintain the exchange rate. This could deplete foreign exchange reserves and limit monetary policy flexibility.
The Renminbi's Rising Influence
China's renminbi could emerge as a potential beneficiary of a weakened US dollar. As China continues to expand its economic influence and promote the internationalization of its currency, it could become a more attractive alternative to the dollar for global trade and investment. However, a trade war with the US could also negatively impact the renminbi, as it could lead to reduced demand for Chinese exports and capital flight.
Navigating the Uncharted Waters
To mitigate the risks associated with a potential trade war, emerging market economies may need to adopt a combination of strategies. These could include diversifying export markets, promoting domestic consumption, and strengthening financial institutions. Additionally, central banks may need to adjust monetary policy to stabilize currencies and manage inflation.
In conclusion, the potential for increased trade tensions between the US and China could have significant implications for the global economy, the US dollar, and emerging market currencies. While the full impact of these developments remains uncertain, it is clear that businesses, investors, and policymakers around the world will need to closely monitor the situation and adapt their strategies accordingly.
BTC NEXT MOVEMissed a pretty good trade by not so much tonight, this is tough.
Not displayed here but we went with Fibonacci tools for this one, using different colours and methods.
This new HH today puts a big step towards the 100K rally, which will however not be completed right now but at least in 2025.
DXY - Further Upside Expected
Dollar remains strong and supported by the Fib levels and Trendline. Despite promising news and expected FED rate cuts, it still remains Bullish due to Trump coming in power and end of year profit taking.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals on 5/15M at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
AUDUSD Sell the dead cat bounce.The AUDUSD pair gave us an excellent sell opportunity last time on our bearish signal (September 18, see chart below) as it got rejected marginally above the 1.5 year Resistance Zone and broke below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
This is so far consistent with all three previous sell sequences that reached the 1D RSI oversold (30.00) barrier. If the symmetry continues to hold, then we should be expecting at least a +2.62% counter-trend rebound and then another rejection towards the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we remain bearish on AUDUSD but need to move our Target a bit higher at 0.64500 (despite the gravity of the 2-year Higher Lows trend-line and the Support Zone) in order to match the 1.382 Fib.
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EURUSD: Showing no signs of stopping before 1.04000.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.891, MACD = -0.007, ADX = 29.222), which is a sign of a potential slowdown on the October sell-off but not of stopping. We believe that as the price is approaching the bottom LL of the Channel Down, it will slow down in an attempt to form sideways a bottom as during the weeks of September 25th - October 16th 2023. The ideal entry will be with the 1W RSI as close to being oversold (30.000) as possible and symmetric 1W MACD shows it can happen by December 9th. That means that we can continue shorting the pair, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.04000), which is where the bottom was priced on October 2nd 2023.
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Chart you should be interested atThis scenario I shared took time and multiple scenarios from EW
In the end, this is the best scenario
And in my opinion, you could see how the high-risk markets started to pump
That usually happens in the 5th wave of the bigger markets like sp500 etc...
You can call that liquidity sharing
It happens in the 5th to create as much FOMO as possible + bring liquidity to the market
I still hold most of my positions in crypto and some stocks
.
About the analysis I shared
.
The one notice is
It could go more up than the targets
The targets I used are W5=W1
If you use W5=0.618,0.78 of W3
You will get other possible targets
I am not hiding a secret here
Those are kinda basics in EW or Fibo trading but most people forget about it
I am not saying get out of the market I will never say such a thing
What I will say is get ready for the next opportunity
Dont burn your profits
Understanding GBPUSDToday we will be taking a closer look at understanding GBPUSD .
GBP
-no global business
-risk currency
-more linked to the UK economy, politics, central banking
USD
-global business currency
-safe haven globally
-Petrodollar
UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENCY PAIR
-we have to understand that within this pair “ GBPUSD ” one is a “ risk ” currency ( GBP ). ( USD ) is a “ safe haven currency ” and is also known as the world reserve currency. During times of economic uncertainty our doubt , or during any periods of times where we have more $ strength, which can be induced by the FED central banking, interest rate hikes and so forth, we will always have the $ dominate, even if the other currency can have some short term strength.
THE USD IS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY
What does this mean?
-this means that the majority of INTERNATIONAL business is denominated in USD. We can see this very relevant when we are looking at the OIL industry and how oil is always exchanged in USD. Hence the name “PETRODOLLAR”.
The Dollar is looking strong, other markets are weak.
On the weekly timeframe, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is bearish.
It's showing a final jump before heading down to create another lower low.
According to this analysis, other markets might be retracing.
I'm observing XAU (Gold), BTC (Bitcoin), and US Oil (WTI Crude Oil)
For potential retracements, manage your risk and emotions before diving into trading.
This is just my viewpoint, not financial advice.
GBP/USD Analysis on the 15-Minute ChartIn this analysis of GBP/USD, we’ve identified a key resistance zone highlighted in pink. This zone has acted as a strong barrier to price advances in the past, where sellers previously entered the market and pushed the price downward.
Currently, the price is below this resistance level, and while it’s not approaching this zone at the moment, our strategy centers on what might happen if the price revisits this area. Based on historical price action, there is a high likelihood that sellers could step in again at this resistance, leading to a potential reversal and creating a shorting opportunity.
Trading Plan:
Observation Point: Monitor the price as it fluctuates within its current range. If it eventually rises back to the pink resistance zone, we’ll look for signs of rejection, such as a bearish candlestick pattern or reduced buying momentum, as confirmation to enter a short position.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above the resistance zone to minimize risk if the price breaks through unexpectedly.
Profit Target: If the price reverses from this resistance as anticipated, the initial target will be the next support level, where buyer interest might increase.
By planning ahead, this approach prepares us to react efficiently if the price reaches the resistance, allowing us to capitalize on potential market behavior based on previous patterns.
USDCAD: Massive Breakout is Coming?! 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD is testing a significant weekly horizontal resistance cluster
based on the highs of 2022/2023/2024.
With the current fundamental sentiment, probabilities
will be high that we will see a breakout attempt of that.
A weekly candle close above will confirm a violation.
It will open a potential for more growth.
Get ready.
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