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DJ FXCM Index

Gold | Ready for a big surge or a big drop? 📈📉Gold is currently moving in a descending triangle. Key support: 2144 - 2149 Key resistance: 2158 - 2163 Gold is waiting for interest rates to come in and provide a 200-400 pip fluctuation! 💰 Fundamental analysis: Numbers above the expected limit of inflation in the United States last week confirmed that price pressures persist and the final stage of reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target remains a challenging process. This led to a 25 basis point increase in the yield of U.S. two-year Treasury notes during the week and the 10-year Treasury yield crossing the 4.30% threshold. However, U.S. key indicators, with some arguments suggesting that the previous adjustment to reduce the central bank's interest rate hike delay until June 2024 would be sufficient, managed to stay on their short-term consolidation path. But on Friday, the tables turned and the S&P500 dropped from an all-time high, as equity bulls preferred to take a cautious stance ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting in anticipation of possible hawkish tones from the Fed. The upcoming week will be a capybara week for central banks, with the Federal Reserve garnering more attention than others. The central banks of Japan, Australia, Switzerland, and the Bank of England are among the central banks that will make their latest decisions on interest rate changes this week. Additionally, in the UK, February inflation data will be in focus ahead of the central bank's meeting as significantly different results from expectations could have a considerable impact on the Bank of England's decision on Thursday. Today, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate data for China in February and January were released. Despite continued weakness in China's real estate sector adding increasing pressure on the economy and confidence in the country's economic outlook, China's industrial production and retail sales surpassed expectations from January to February, marking a strong start for 2024 and providing relief for policymakers. Today's data results, following better-than-expected recent exports and consumer inflation indicators, reinforce Beijing's hopes of achieving what analysts describe as the ambitious goal of 5% gross domestic product growth in the current year. 📈🌏 What is the most likely scenario for the Federal Reserve meeting? 🤔 The Federal Reserve, in its January meeting, kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% for the fourth consecutive session. The bank's statement indicated that while the option of lowering interest rates is still on the table, the Federal Reserve is not in a rush to implement this option and wants to ensure more certainty that inflation is moving steadily towards 2%. It is expected that in Thursday's meeting, the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% and release a similar statement to the January one, reiterating its previous positions. Therefore, such a procedure will draw attention to the updated dot plot chart, which will be the focal point of the March monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. If only two participants adjust their forecasts, the midpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve expects to have only two interest rate cuts, much less than the seven cuts the market had predicted in the second week of January for 2024. The occurrence of such a scenario will support the dollar. 💵 The S&P Global PMIs and Jerome Powell's speech, market drivers post-Thursday On Friday, the initial estimates of the S&P Global PMIs will attract investors' attention. Forecasts suggest a contraction in both manufacturing and services sectors in March. If the results exceed expectations, it could provide some support for the dollar index. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, will be scrutinized on Friday, with not much time gap from Thursday's meeting. There is a slight possibility that Powell's positions on Friday may differ significantly from the Fed's stance on Thursday. However, if Powell's positions align with the updated dot plot and the Fed's stance, it will deepen the created volatility; otherwise, it will adjust the fluctuations arising from Thursday's results. 📈🔍🗣️
OANDA:XAUUSD
by uPaSKaL
64
Buy GBPUSD H4 Chart - ChannelGBPUSD Buyers Eyeing Opportunity : The GBP/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potentially bullish opportunity due to a price nearing a breakout from a well-defined channel pattern. This suggests a possible shift in momentum and a higher likelihood of an uptrend in the coming days. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) around the 1.2600 - 1.2570 zone. This zone represents an attractive entry point near the potential breakout level. Target: The initial bullish target lies at 1.2820. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the lower support line of the channel, ideally around 1.2550. This helps limit potential losses if the price breaks down from the channel pattern and the downtrend resumes. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
23
Sell USDCAD - H1 Ascending TriangleUSD/CAD H1: Ascending Triangle Hints at Potential Downturn, Shorting Opportunity Emerges! The USD/CAD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined ascending triangle pattern. While ascending triangles can be continuation patterns, a breakdown from this pattern, especially on higher timeframes like H1, suggests a higher likelihood of a trend reversal towards the downside. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position below (ideally around 1.3600). This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: The initial bearish target lies at 1.3460. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line (rising trendline) of the triangle, ideally around 1.3630. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
Usd index still bullish with it, watching for more upsideTradingview Ideas: Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. As mentioned in my streaming, i mentioned that usd has no major change in its price structure, likely more upside and bias to long for the majors. Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Bitcoin - BTCUSD 4hrUPDATE: Head and shoulder patterns continue. BTC is following a 1hr trend (blue lines). Pay attention to the lower high BTC is about to create. The USD markets are on a holiday break, if the USD news is bullish for GoodFriday then BTC will continue to drop. ***Fed Powell is speaking as well. This could be the start of the biggest pullback in BTC History. I am looking for BTCUSD to continue falling as it respects the lower highs. Tp1: 61500 Tp2: 51500 Tp3: 47500 Tp4: 37749
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by nikdobii
USDCHF: Overbought and at the top of the Channel Down.USDCHF is overbought on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 74.650, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 47.655) as it hit the top of the yearly Channel Down. That is exactly on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, where the LH prior was always priced, also after an approximately +8.50% rise. The 1D RSI is making a reversal inside the overbought zone and we are about to form a 1D Golden Cross, which last time emerged after the LH was made. This is a strong bearish signal combination. First we are targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP1 = 0.8600) and if by then the price remains under the 1D MA50, we will extend selling to the bottom of the Channel Down (TP2 = 0.82500) going the full -9.40% distance. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
1