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DJ FXCM Index

Buy USD/CHF Triangle BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.8853 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 0.8895 2nd Resistance – 0.8923 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 0.8790. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
28
Gold vs. Dollar: Debunking the Correlation MythIn financial markets, it's common to look for correlations between different assets to understand their behavior and make informed trading decisions. One widely discussed relationship is between Gold (XAU/USD) and the US Dollar Index (DXY). While it's often assumed that these two assets are inversely correlated, a deeper analysis reveals that this is not always the case. This article explores the nuances of the XAU/USD and DXY relationship, demonstrating that they are not consistently correlated. Understanding XAU/USD and DXY XAU/USD represents the price of Gold in US dollars. Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, meaning its price tends to rise in times of economic uncertainty. DXY, or the US Dollar Index, measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc. The index provides a broad measure of the US dollar's strength. The Assumption of Inverse Correlation The assumption of an inverse correlation between XAU/USD and DXY is based on the idea that when the dollar strengthens, it becomes more expensive to buy Gold, leading to a decrease in Gold prices. Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper, and its price tends to rise. However, this relationship is not as straightforward as it seems. Historical Data Analysis To understand the true nature of the relationship between XAU/USD and DXY, let's examine historical data. 1. 2008 Financial Crisis: During the 2008 financial crisis, both gold and the US dollar saw periods of appreciation. Investors flocked to the safety of both assets amid widespread market turmoil. This simultaneous rise contradicts the notion of a straightforward inverse correlation. 2. 2014-2016 Period: From mid-2014 to the end of 2016, the DXY experienced significant strength, rising from around 80 to over 100. During this period, gold prices also showed resilience, hovering around $1,200 to $1,300 per ounce. The expected inverse correlation was not evident during these years. 3. COVID-19 Pandemic: In early 2020, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a sharp rise in both gold and the US dollar. The DXY spiked as investors sought the liquidity and safety of the US dollar, while gold surged as a hedge against unprecedented economic uncertainty and aggressive monetary policy actions. 4. Gold new ATH's in 2024: Even recently, if we examine the charts, we see that since the beginning of the year, XAU/USD has risen by 4000 pips, while the DXY is 4% above its price at the start of the year. Factors Influencing the Relationship: Several factors can disrupt the expected inverse correlation between XAU/USD and DXY: - Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment plays a crucial role. During periods of extreme uncertainty, both gold and the US dollar can be sought after for their safe-haven properties. - Monetary Policy: Central bank actions, particularly those of the Federal Reserve, can impact both the US dollar and gold. For instance, lower interest rates may weaken the dollar but boost gold prices as investors seek better returns elsewhere. - Geopolitical Events: Political instability, trade tensions, and other geopolitical factors can drive simultaneous demand for both assets, decoupling their traditional relationship. - Inflation Expectations: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. If inflation expectations rise, gold prices might increase regardless of the dollar's strength or weakness. Conclusion: While there are periods when XAU/USD and DXY exhibit an inverse correlation, this relationship is far from consistent. Various factors, including market sentiment, monetary policy, geopolitical events, and inflation expectations, can influence their behavior. Traders and investors should not rely solely on the assumed inverse correlation but rather consider the broader context and multiple factors at play. Understanding that XAU/USD and DXY are not always correlated can lead to more nuanced trading strategies and better risk management. In the complex world of financial markets, recognizing the limitations of assumed relationships is crucial for making informed decisions. Best Regards! Mihai Iacob
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Sell USD/CAD Channel BreakoutThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3813, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3775 2nd Support – 1.3748 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3855. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
17
Buy EUR/USD Wedge BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.0842, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0881 2nd Support – 1.0902 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.0822. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
24
Usd potential reversal?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Gonna be neutral for USD this week, wanting to see how the price action plays out with the avalanche of news coming out . Let's watch and play along. I do see a potential turn here. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
TVC:DXY
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Will XAPUSD break above 0.66155 resisance?Looking at previous data (Every time price broke above the 0.66155 ) 1. 11 Dec - 17 Dec 2017 Week - Price rallied all the way past 0.91723 to 3.31700 before the huge sell off the following week which saw price go all the way to 0.57! 2. 09 Apr - 15 Apr 2018 Week - Price rallied up past 0.91723 to 0.96490, not as impressive as the first rally. Then a sell-off followed pushing price past the previous 0.57 level to 0.42. And for close to at least 2 years, we saw price rejecting the 0.66155 level, failing to breach it. But then 2021!! 3. 26 Jul - 01 Apr 2021 Week - XRPUSD broke the resistance massively, this was after a bullish momentum of 3 weeks before, zooming past 0.91723 , and then finally break the $1.00 psychological level and peak at 1.96900. AND THEN A SELL OFF! By the beginning of 2022 price was already below the 0.66155 key level. Again, acting as a ceiling for price. 4. 31 Jan - 06 Jan 2022 Week - In the last week of January, bulls too charge after sellers failed to breach below 0.58536 which was acting as a minor support. Price pushes up to 0.91723 . Before the baton was passed on to bears. 5. 10 Jul - 16 Jul 2023 Week - Closed that week above 0.66155 resistance, taping 0.91723 before receding. We haven't seen price break and close above the 0.66155 level after the 5th attempt (10 Jul - 16 Jul 2023 Week). It has tried for close to 9 weeks (not consecutively) and failing every single time. But with how things are moving, already 2 weeks of bullish reign, could we see price attempting to cross over the resistance? NB: If you have been paying attention, you'll notice that in all the instance I listed above the 0.91723 level has been tapped. In all the INSTANCES. For those that are not getting it, every time price crosses above 0.66155 , it touches the 0.91723 level. Then decisions are made there on whether to continue the bullish momentum or opposite. Do with this information what you would.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Kabelo_Dale
USDCNY hit the 1DMA200 and rebounded. Clear bullish confirmationThe USDCNY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 15 2023 market bottom. Yesterday is completed a violent 2-day collapse and hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) right at the bottom of the Channel Up. The price almost immediately rebounded, so that gives the most clear buy confirmation on the short-term. We turn bullish again, targeting a Higher High at 7.3100 (+1.39% rise). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Sell Gbp/Usd Bearish Flag BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. FX:GBPUSD Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2916, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2882 2nd Support – 1.2855 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2953. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
43
USDCAD Approaching the most optimal sell level.The USDCAD pair is on the 2nd strong green 1W candle, following the rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching Resistance 1 (1.39000), the October 30 2023 High. This is technically the most optimal sell opportunity on a 1-year basis. The short-term Target is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) on a potential contact with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.36450. Target 2 is at 1.34500 (marginally above the 0.618 Fib), which will be a -3.23% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
USDINR Bullish break-out signalThe USDINR pair broke this week above Resistance 1 (83.700), the long lasting level since the week of March 18 and following a strong rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the break-out should technically lead higher. The long-term pattern remains a Rising Wedge and we expect at least a symmetrical +1.29% Bullish Leg to price the Higher High, similar to the March High. Our Target is 84.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD Volatility ahead but bearish on a 1-month horizon.The EURUSD pair is pulling back as per our last week's trading plan (July 16, see chart below) and reached the bottom of the (dashed) Bullish Leg: The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up but as mentioned last week, the current Bullish Leg is about to get exhausted. On the previous Bullish Leg it did on a Double Top. Regardless if that takes place or not eventually and creates volatility for the next 7 days, we expect a new Bearish Leg to start and lead to and end-of-August Higher Low. Our Target remains 1.07250. On a side-note, the 1D RSI got rejected exactly before hitting the 70.00 overbought barrier, and the last 2 times that took place in 2024, it turned out to be the most optimal medium-term Sell Signal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
GBPUSD Sell signal targeting the 1D MA200The GBPUSD pair almost hit the top of its 10-month Channel Up and immediatelly got rejected. The subsequent pull-back is so far restrained within the (dotted) Channel Up that uses the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support. The previous such Channel Up, essentially the first Bullish Leg of the (blue) Channel Up, topped at +6.00% (which is where the current rally sits as well) and a 6 week pull-back saw it test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, the R/R favors heavily going short at the moment. Our Target is 1.2790 (exactly on the 0.382 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
3
EUR/USD Daily Chart - Triangle BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the Daily timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the upcoming Days. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.0900. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.1083 2nd Resistance – 1.1210 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.0718. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Thank you
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
We Buy Stocks In Bull MarketsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average just had its highest weekly closing price in history. Meanwhile, this week we also saw the highest reading of NYSE stocks above their 200 day moving average during this entire bull market. Do you know how many times we saw a new 52-week high for the Dow in 2021 along with these breadth readings also hitting new cycle highs? Zero. It didn’t even happen once. That’s because back in 2021, market breadth was deteriorating, not expanding. See the difference? These are the biggest and most important companies in this country. But what about the companies down the cap-scale? Small-cap Indexes have not been participating during this bull market, although plenty of small-cap stocks and sectors have. But now the indexes are joining the party as well. We just saw new bull market highs for the Small-cap Russell2000 Index. And when you break down what’s happening within that index, we just saw new 30-month highs for both Small-cap Value AND Small-cap Growth. There are so many opportunities right now in the market, but how do you know which are the best ones? Funny, you’re in luck. We’ve been working on something BIG behind the scenes. And we’re not just looking for base hits. We are ONLY looking for huge winners. This is a bull market. So we’re not messing around. If it can’t be at least a double, then I’m not interested. We’re going for multi-baggers.
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by USDSZL
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) Channel BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2465, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2425 2nd Support – 2403 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2487. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
35
USDJPY But signal when the 1D MA50 breaks.Last time we looked at the USDJPY pair (May 22, see chart below), it gave us a solid buy signal at the bottom of its Channel Up: Since then the price got rejected on Resistance 1 (161.950), forming a Diverging Higher Highs trend-line and pulled back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and at the bottom of the (blue) 7-month Channel Up. Once the price breaks above the 1D MA50 and better yet the 1D RSI breaks above its MA period (yellow), we will have a new buy opportunity at our hands as in the past 4 occasions that has taken place, it was the absolute bullish break-out confirmation. If it does again, we will buy and target 163.000 (contact with Diverging Higher Highs trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot