DJ FXCM Index
R2F Weekly Analysis - 18th August 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
USD could see 101 in time to comeHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Overall the USD is still on the weak side. Right now still hovering around a last key S area .If give way, likely see more downside to $101.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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DXY is starting a rebound to at least 106.000The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a 19-month Channel Up pattern and this week (as well as on August 05), it almost reached its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). This is a Double Bottom formation so far, which is a bullish pattern, that was also formed on the 1D RSI.
The last time the RSI completed this formation, we've had a bottom that gave way to a strong Bullish Leg. Most rallies/ declines within this pattern have been between a 4.00% to 5.00% range.
As a result, we turn bullish on DXY now, targeting 106.00, which is just below a potential +4.00% rise and almost on the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up.
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USDCHF Strong long-term bullish wave expected.The USDCHF pair followed almost perfectly our projected course last time we made an analysis on it (June 20, see chart below), as after a 1.5 Fibonacci rebound, it resumed the downtrend and hit our 0.8700 Target:
Having completed a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, on the same level as the January 04 2024 one, we view the recent rebound as the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
As you can see, we've been basically within a wide but sideways structure for more than one year and the symmetry between the October - December 2023 Leg is very high with May - August 2024. Even the 1D MACD patterns are very similar.
As a result, we turn bullish on USDCHF again on a 0.9100 Target, just below the 1W MA200, which is the technical long-term Resistance.
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USDZAR Channel Down intact. More selling to come.The USDZAR pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since April and currently is more than half-way through its latest Bearish Leg. Technically it resembles the Bearish Leg of May, which completed a -7.00% decline in the pricing of its Lower Low.
As a result, our short-term Target on this pair is 17.500 which is slightly less than -7.00%, near the Support 2 level.
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Looking for Sell BTC around 60600(8/16/2024)Bearish Shadow is still chasing BTC. After a good retracement from the 49-50k zone, BTC faced some selling pressure around the 62700$. The pressure finally pushed the price to 56.1k $ yesterday. right now price action is showing us HH and LH and, we can see Liquidity above the 59800$ and FVG above it.
We believe the price will eventually reach the zones as mentioned earlier, then we are looking for a bearish setup around 60600$(this is important!) .
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
USDMXN Channel Up leading to 21.6500The USDMXN pair eventually gave us on our last analysis (June 27, see chart below) our desired bullish break-out above the multi-year Falling Wedge and the 1W MA200 and its next stop will most likely be our 21.6500 Target:
To view this trend from a more comprehensive perspective, we made today's analysis on the 1D time-frame. The prevailing pattern is a Channel Up, which as you can see is technically on its 3rd Bearish Leg.
Once it hits the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at the bottom of the Channel Up along with ideally the 1D RSI hitting its Support Zone, we will have the next short-term bullish signal. The Bullish Legs have so far been fairly symmetrical at a +15% rise. As a result our 21.000 Target is within the range of the expected rise ahead.
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Dollar Index (DXY): Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis and important
key levels to pay close attention to on Dollar Index.
Resistance 1: 103.25 - 103.70 area
Resistance 2: 103.85 - 104.15 area
Resistance 3: 104.57 - 104.87 area
Resistance 4: 105.12 - 105.49 area
Resistance 5: 106.05 - 106.13 area
Support 1: 102.16 - 102.57 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Bearish Intraday Momentum in DXYDXY is showing bearish momentum in the intraday charts, with the price encountering resistance and struggling to maintain recent highs. The indicators reflect a downward trend, signaling potential weakness ahead. This setup could lead to further declines if the current momentum persists. Let’s keep a close eye on the developments!
USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024.
As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones).
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Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) Bullish FlagThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2474, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2496
2nd Support – 2506
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2450. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Sell USD/CHF Triangle BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.8640
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8602
2nd Support – 0.8570
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.8686. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
A 100 basis point rate cut making the dollar weakMarkets expect a 100 basis point Fed rate cut during the remaining meetings this year.
A 100 basis point rate cut by the Fed would likely weaken the U.S. dollar.
Lower interest rates reduce the yield on dollar-denominated assets, making them less attractive to investors.
This could lead to a decrease in demand for the dollar, causing the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) to decline.
Additionally, a weaker dollar might boost U.S. exports by making them more competitive globally, but it could also increase inflationary pressures.
EURUSD Aggressive selling about to start.Just last week (August 05, see chart below), we stressed on the importance of the 1W candle closing following the break above the 13-month Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Triangle pattern:
The week eventually closed in losses (red 1W candle) and below the Lower Highs, which gave a bearish signal upon a technical rejection. This is a Double Higher High rejection similar to June 04, which initiated the previous Bearish Leg towards the Channel's bottom (Higher Lows).
As a result, we believe that it is still early to make a sell entry and target 1.07500.
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Seize the "Gold"en chance now! Prices could skyrocket!The hourly chart is showing the development of a double bottom pattern.
- If the neckline at the 2404 level is breached, we could witness a surge in gold prices. The anticipated upside targets are as follows:
- 1st target - 2418 level
- 2nd target - 2453 level
- 3rd target - 2475 level
Sell AUD/USD Wedge BreakoutThe AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.6584, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.6525
2nd Support – 0.6490
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.6610. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Oil crushing it's slippery slope NYMEX:MCL1!
After nearly a month of selling, oil seems to be taking back buyer's momentum that first started on July 17th, 2024 and ended on August 6th, 2024. When the creation of the "W" formed shortly after hitting a 10 min supply area, this signaled the last moments of Oil's sell trend. As we go into this week, we see that oil is still coming in hot to take back supply area's that it created on the 1hr timeframe, but it's due for a pullback. Depending on after market movements, we can possibly see Oil start to pullback to continue making buy structure to the upside. Oil has a good possibility to make it back to the areas of 83.50 and 84.50. Since in current time right now as I'm typing this, Oil has already broken 3 LH's (lower high) that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024. We can see pullbacks in the range of 78.84 and 77.12 to potentially see continuation of buying movements. Within this outlook, my current analysis is buyers market until price shows other signs.
USDCHF Loong!This price has been forming a falling flag for the past few weeks, which IMO is always a strong sentiment for a bullish market. After completing the pattern and liquidity grab, I do anticipate that the price might retest the upper trend line of the pattern.
Entry point at 0.868, SL at 0.855 and TP at 0.894
Remember, only risk 1-2% of your account.
NASDAQ - US100 Facing Bearish PressureThe CAPITALCOM:US100 index is currently facing significant downward pressure, largely due to mounting concerns about the U.S. economy. The potential for a recession is growing as recent data points to an increase in unemployment claims, and the Federal Reserve has decided to delay interest rate cuts. This has created uncertainty in the markets, as higher unemployment could lead to reduced consumer spending, further exacerbating the economic slowdown. The anticipation of prolonged higher interest rates is also weighing on investor sentiment, making the stock market, particularly tech-heavy indexes like NASDAQ, more vulnerable to declines.
Technically, the BLACKBULL:NAS100 index has been following a clear pattern of reactions to its trendlines. The index recently fell and touched the third trendline support, which has historically been a critical level for determining market direction. After this touch, the index attempted a recovery, moving back towards the second trendline, which now acts as a breakeven point. However, the failure to break through this level and the subsequent rejection suggests that the bears are firmly in control. The pattern indicates that the index may face further declines, particularly if it breaches the third trendline support.
In conclusion, both fundamental and technical factors are pointing towards a bearish outlook for the NASDAQ index. The rising possibility of a recession, driven by increasing unemployment claims and the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts, has dampened investor sentiment. On the technical side, the index’s inability to reclaim key trendline supports indicates that more downside is likely. As a result, investors should be cautious and prepared for potential further declines in the NASDAQ index in the coming weeks.
USDSEK Bearish break-out imminent.The USDSEK pair is testing the Internal Higher Lows trend-line of the 2-year Channel Down pattern, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Having made its last Lower High just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level (similar to the previous Lower High), it is technically expected to break the Internal Higher Lows trend-line and extend to a new Channel Down Low towards the end of the year.
As you can see the structure of this pattern is very symmetrical and with the last Lower Low being just above the -0.186 Fibonacci extension, we expect the next to be at 9.7500 at least.
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