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DJ FXCM Index

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 06, 2024 EURUSDAn event to look out for today: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Rate EURUSD: EUR/USD posted a second consecutive day of gains on Thursday, breaking above 1.1100 as markets actively sold off the US Dollar ahead of Friday's highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Markets are looking for further signs that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is ready for an initial rate cut and the start of a rate-cutting cycle in September, but US data must continue to soften to keep hopes of a rate cut high. European economic data did not provide additional support for the Euro after July's EU retail sales data fell short of expectations. Annualised retail sales came in worse than expected at -0.1% for the year ended July, falling short of the expected 0.1% uptick compared to a revised previous decline of -0.4%. According to ADP, the US added 99k new jobs in August, down from July's revised 111k and well below the 145k expected. The August ADP figure was the lowest since early 2021, triggering a new round of risk aversion and reigniting investor fears that the US may be heading into recession. The ADP employment report serves as an indicator of what markets can expect from Friday's upcoming US NFP report, although it has a shaky reputation for accuracy. The August NFP report is the last significant employment update before the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on 18 September, when Fed policymakers are expected to begin the rate-cutting cycle. NFP is expected to come in at 160k on Friday, up from 114k the previous month. According to CME data, the betting markets are currently betting on a 40% chance that the Fed will open the door by cutting rates by 50 bps later this month. The remaining 60% are betting on a more modest 25bp rate cut. Investors expect the NFP data released this Friday to gauge the depth of the Fed's first rate cut since its 100bp cut in March 2020. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY Levels to Watch Ahead of NFPLooking at the chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), the world’s reserve currency remains in a well-defined downtrend despite last week’s bounce. The near-term reaction in the US dollar will likely follow the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Fed (bullish) vs. 50bps rate cut (bearish) as outlined in the chart above, but ultimately, the dominant downtrend and potential for consistent interest rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in the coming year could keep the greenback under pressure as we move through the fall regardless. -MW
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY / US DOLLAR INDEX🔍 DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Analysis: 4-Hour Timeframe 📉 The DXY chart on a 4-hour timeframe highlights significant upcoming times where price movements may present trading opportunities. It’s essential to analyze these signals in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view. • BUY DATE - September 12, 2024, 04:00 - Green Line: This time indicates a potential local low, offering favorable conditions for accumulating DXY or entering long positions. • BUY DATE - September 19, 2024, 00:00 - Green Line: Another potential local low, suggesting favorable conditions for buying. • BUY DATE - October 7, 2024, 06:00 - Green Line: This time marks another potential local low, indicating favorable conditions to enter long positions. When working with this 4-hour timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective. Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
TVC:DXYShort
by trushkovskiy
NZDUSD Strong sell opportunity.The NZDUSD pair gave us last time (June 26, see chart below) a solid sell signal, even though the Target just fell short of being hit: The price is giving yet again a sell signal as not only it fulfilled the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and got rejected but also the 1D RSI hit and got rejected exactly on the 70.00 overbought barrier, which is where all tops since late 2022 have been priced. As a result, we expect the pair to initially hit at least 0.6000 towards the end of this month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
NVIDIA BUY ZONES ACTIVE ?As posted before after the earnings report we’ve seen the stock drop from 127 to 105 after a blowout report. Here’s my current idea of a scenario 1. NVDA Settles around the price of $111 & $100 before US DATA Thursday and Friday 2. NVDA buy opportunities towards $125-$140 or above 3. Stocks can rise on a worst than expected US Data, propelling the index market to all time highs as well as gold. This current correction phase is healthy, and needed. 4. NVDA can form a double top resistance at $138-$141 sending the stock into more selling power. Consequently to a price of $90-$50. Waiting for a bounce between this area. Until new points of possible AI is found and chips are being sold at a higher volume. This can be the EOY stock price. Overall whoever wins presidency will have a significant impact on AI markets. This is a prediction. Good luck to all!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by R2CTrading
Short on EUR/USD – 30-Minute Timeframe We’re taking a short position on EUR/USD on the 30-minute timeframe, driven by the strength of the U.S. dollar. The recent price action indicates a continuation of the downtrend, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the bearish momentum. Key Levels: • Entry: Initiated after confirming the strong dollar trend and the break of key support levels on the chart. • Target: Aiming for lower support zones as indicated on the chart, where price may find temporary relief or consolidation. • Stop-Loss: Placed above the recent high to manage risk and protect against a potential reversal. Rationale: The U.S. dollar continues to show strength, applying pressure on the euro. This trade is aligned with the broader market trend, which favors further downside for the EUR/USD pair. The technical setup, supported by the prevailing macroeconomic factors, suggests that the downtrend is likely to persist in the near term. Risk Management: To manage risk effectively, the stop-loss is set above the recent high, ensuring that potential losses are limited while allowing for the possibility of continued downward movement. Monitor the trade closely and adjust as needed based on market developments. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
1
Awaited Dollar Rebound, Too Expensive FrancCHF - Market Internals - SNB doesn't like it high USD - Strong GDP data. Claims were released slightly below the cons.; ISM PMI positive expectations - Oversold dollar due to exaggerated cut expectations - Bullish CFTC Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Local mirror level, 3R Risk: 0.22%; 1R * 1st entry 0.5R near the down band of the local range (buy limit); 2nd 0.5R when 1h closed above DMA(10)
Long
by Cherry94
US indeces pre market TuesdayHere's a breakdown of why the S&P 500 might drop to the next green zone based on the technical analysis depicted in the chart: 1. Resistance Zone (Upper Red Box) The chart highlights a resistance zone near the top, marked by a red box. This zone represents a price level where the S&P 500 has struggled to move higher and has reversed several times in the past. The price has recently touched this resistance zone and failed to break through it, indicating that selling pressure is stronger at this level. 2. Support Zone (Lower Green Box) The green box at the bottom represents a support zone, which is a price level where the index has previously found buying interest and reversed upward. The chart suggests that the price could potentially drop back to this support zone if the current downtrend continues. 3. Recent Price Action The price action within the last few candlesticks shows a downward movement after touching the resistance zone, which is depicted by the downward arrow. This suggests that sellers have taken control, and the price is likely to continue moving lower. 4. Breakdown of Support Levels The price appears to be breaking down through minor support levels (smaller green zones within the red box), which could indicate that the market is losing bullish momentum and could head towards the lower support zone. 5. Trading Setup The chart suggests a short (sell) trade setup, where the expected movement is for the price to drop towards the lower green zone. The green arrow indicates the anticipated direction of the price movement, while the red and green shaded areas likely represent the stop-loss and take-profit levels, respectively. Conclusion Based on the chart's technical analysis, the S&P 500 is expected to decline to the next green support zone due to the strong resistance at the current level, recent bearish price action, and the potential breakdown of intermediate support levels. If the price reaches the lower green zone, it might find support and possibly reverse, but until then, the outlook is bearish.
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by Elite_Forex
DXY - US Dollar Strengthens Above 101.70 Market AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing renewed strength, climbing above the 101.70 mark after a relatively flat Monday. This move extends the momentum from last week, where the DXY gained over 1%. As the market braces for key labor data later this week, all eyes are on the August jobs report, set to be released on Friday. This report is expected to reveal a solid increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could provide further support to the US Dollar. Technical Analysis: Reversal from Key Demand Area From a technical standpoint, the DXY has already exhibited a significant reversal from a key Demand area around 100.535. As forecasted, the price rebounded from the 100.515 level, confirming the strength of this support zone. This reversal was anticipated based on previous analysis, and it has played out as expected, setting the stage for the current bullish momentum. Sentiment and Seasonal Trends Support a Bullish Outlook The Commitments of Traders (COT) report adds an interesting layer to the analysis, showing that retail traders are aggressively short on the US Dollar. This aggressive short positioning often acts as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that there might be further upside potential for the DXY. Additionally, seasonal trends are aligning with a possible bullish rally in the US Dollar. Historically, this period has seen increased demand for the USD, and the current setup appears to be following that pattern. When combining the COT data with the technical bounce from the Demand area, the outlook for the US Dollar remains positive. Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting USD Strength The DXY's move above 101.70 is supported by a confluence of technical and sentiment factors. The reversal from the Demand area, coupled with the contrarian signal from the COT report and favorable seasonality, all point towards a continued increase in the value of the US Dollar. As the market awaits the crucial NFP report on Friday, the stage is set for potential further gains in the DXY, reinforcing our bullish outlook for the US Dollar. Previous Forecast ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
1
CRB Index: Impact on Commodities, Inflation, and the DollarIt’s been some time since we last looked at the Thomson Reuters CRB Index, a key indicator for tracking commodity performance and gauging inflation. With inflation softening recently, it’s not surprising that the CRB Index is also reversing. The chart shows a three-wave rally from the 2023 lows, which suggests a corrective movement in an ABC formation, as identified in Elliott Wave theory. When a correction like this concludes, the next move typically retraces the previous rally. Looking at the CRB Index, we expect prices to move even lower, possibly down to 241. This decline could be further driven by falling crude oil prices, especially if OPEC increases supply as recently announced. Some may wonder how this will impact the USD. Currently, the correlation is that lower commodities lead to lower CPI, which in turn suggests a lower USD due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Until the Fed cuts rates a few times, the correlation between a lower CRB and a lower USD could remain in play due to falling US yields. However, once rate cuts are nearing their end, that’s when the dollar may find a bottom.
TVC:TRJEFFCRBShort
by ew-forecast
Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2497, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2522 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2489. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
Sell EURUSD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1060, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1015 2nd Support – 1.0988 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1100 This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
Will the dollar bounce back from its current decline? The US July PCE was in line with market consensus. Headline PCE prices rose 0.2% from a month ago and 2.5% from a year ago, which aligns with market expectations. Core PCE, the Fed's price benchmark, rose only 0.16%, slower than the previous month's 0.18%. This is the lowest level this year and has catalyzed the market sentiment of the Fed’s rate cut. It is worth noting that despite a 0.3% increase in personal income, surpassing the previous month's 0.2%, the savings rate remains alarmingly low. This is because personal consumption expenditures are growing at a faster rate than personal income. The current savings rate has dropped to 2.9%, marking only the second instance in the past 16 years, since the global financial crisis, the savings rate has fallen to the 2% range. This implies that consumption in the United States could decline quickly, serving as a cautionary signal that if employment falters, there may be insufficient buffers to sustain consumption. DXY sustained its uptrend after breaking out of the descending channel and advanced to 101.60. The price consolidates around the 101.50-101.70 range, waiting for an additional price trigger. If the price breaches the resistance at 101.80 while holding above the EMA, the price may gain upward momentum toward 102.60. Conversely, if DXY fails to stay above both EMAs and retreats to the support at 100.50, the price could fall further to the 100.00 threshold.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by inkicho_exness
FULL DXY ANALYSISHello my wonderful community ! it’s been a while I posted. 
I really appreciate you guys for reviewing my charts Kindly like and comment on how you feel the market will go , I’m open to learn and communicate with other hardworking traders on here. The colors for each line/zone Monthly - Yellow Weekly - Orange Daily - Green 4H - Red 1H - Purple My Monthly chart view: Ever since 2010, price has been in an uptrend by making higher highs and higher lows. Price keeps breaking major resistance areas and turning them to dynamic support areas and respects the EMA 50 anytime it makes a correction. Take note as price is trending upwards and respecting the channel constructed. My Weekly chart view:
Going into the weekly TimeFrame, it is truly clear that price entered a range from 2017 until 2022 before the bulls came in fully in early 2022 and made an Uptrend and breaking the resistance with bullish candles before exerting a correction and respecting the newly formed support. My Daily chart view:
I also noticed a range forming due to this same correction between the areas marked in red.
Notice the double top indicating a reversal after the break of the neck line. After the invalidation of the Red daily trend line by the break with bearish engulfing candle, The bears take full control driving the price down to an area of Demand.
Price is in a downtrend as this is due to the correction observed in the bigger timeframe To play safe i feel i can capture a buy setup after the break and retest of the upper red resistance but that will take forever.
 My 4H chart view:
I capitalized on this trade by executing based on my trading strategy with a nice sell setup after the break of the neckline with a risk: reward of 1:2.
So I’ll go further and look for buy Setups as we are in this same 4H time frame 
 Price currently approached an Area of Demand (this area also serves as a major support zone and has been respected multiple times )and bulls seems to be coming in strong with rising momentum.

 My 1H chart view:
Sometimes we just have to go further with the believe that the market will reveal its hand , so I’m patiently waiting for buy setups as price is gaining momentum with the EMA 14 crossing over the EMA 50 and price still respecting the area of Demand and major support zone.
TVC:DXYLong
by newschooltrader
EURUSD Long-term Sell Signal confirmed.The EURUSD pair confirmed with last week's closing the start of a new bearish sequence as it closed the 1W candle in deep red below even the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This established not only the previous High as the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 11-month Channel Up but also posted an identical long-term Top sequence as the July 17 2023 weekly candle. As you can see on both tops a long-term series of red weeks was initiated, both of then stopping on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. As a result, our 1.0900 medium-term bearish Target appears to be a modest one as it is where we anticipate the first wave of buyers (Support) on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) 1W MA100 (green trend-line) cluster. This may provide a bounce similar to February 12 2024. As a side-note, notice how the 1W RSI posted a similar rejection - reversal top on the 70.00 overbought barrier, same as July 10 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) Ascending Triangle in H1The XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2513. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2485 2nd Support – 2461.50 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2530. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
23