[DXY] Towards resistanceMany assets are waiting for clarification on TVC:DXY move. At the moment, it still climbing towards the lower side of triangle as resistance at 103.
If breaks, we still have 220 EMA at 103.40.
I'm still thinking this will go lower & this move is simply a pressure relief...but let see.
DJ FXCM Index
EURUSD: Dead cat bounce to 1.10500 expected.EURUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.133, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 30.825) which given the fact that the price is approaching the LL trendline, it allows for some room to recover some losses. We expect this to be a dead cat bounce but a short term buy opportunity nonetheless. Target the 4H MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.10500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold Washout Low/Excess Phase Peak #3 Setup - Get ReadyThis short video highlights why I believe Gold is building a base near $2640 for a big rally move up to $2760++.
Yes, I highlight some concerns in this video.
I expected Gold to move more aggressively to the upside over the last 36 hours, but this is trading. Everything doesn't work out perfectly in all instances.
If you are trading Gold, this video should help you understand what is happening on the price chart and why it is so important for Gold to build a base and move higher from these lows.
If Gold breaks below $2620, all bets are off, and we may see a broader breakdown. But I don't think that is likely to happen with this move.
I still see the $2780 level as the upper target.
Get some.
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USDJPY Waiting for this perfect sell opportunity.Two weeks ago (September 25, see chart below) we gave a strong multi-month buy signal on the USDJPY pair and it couldn't have had a better timing:
Last week recorded a massive 1W green candle, the strongest one in more than 2 years that almost tested the 1W MA50. Today we will be breaking down this long-term buy opportunity on the lower 1D time-frame.
As you can see, the price is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. This is of very high importance as during the previous Channel Up bottom in early 2023, the two formed a Bearish Cross (February 27 2023) and just a few days later the pair topped and was rejected on the 1D MA200.
The result was a pull-back to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term we remain bullish but on the short-term we will be waiting for this rejection opportunity in order to short and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 146.000.
Notice also that the high symmetry on the RSI sequences among the two bottom fractals also indicates that we are just before the 1D MA100/ 200 Bearish Cross took place.
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EURUSD Confirmed sell signal with MA50 (1d) confirmationEURUSD broke below the MA50 (1d) for the first time since August 2nd, which is a technical sell signal.
The MA50 (1d) has been the pivot of the Ascending Triangle and every break below it has delivered more downside.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the next rebound to the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 1.078000 (Support A).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is posting the same pattern of the December top. Technical sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USDollar Is In Higher Degree Recovery ModeDollar Index with ticker DXY has turned bearish after the corrective rally stopped at 105.70-106, an important resistance area at the end of June. Since then, the price even accelerated lower through summer so it appears that a bearish impulse, but with current sharp bounce out of an ending diagonal on 4h TF, we believe that correction is now in play. Notice thats a very sharp leg up, so its wave a, still first leg of a minimum three-wave a-b-c recovery that can take index back to 61.8% Fib, near 104 which can be very strong resistance for the next sell-off, especially if we consider that this can be wave 2 rally.
EURUSD formed the first 4H Death Cross in 4 months.The Double Top on EURUSD last time we mentioned it (September 23, see chart below) worked perfectly and followed its technical bearish bias as not only did the price got rejected but also broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the May's Channel Up:
At the same time, the pair just completed its first Death Cross on the 4H time-frame in almost 4 months (since June 14) and every time in the past 2 and more years (except June 14) that it made that formation, it gave a solid medium-term (at least) sell signal.
As a result, there is no reason to diverge from the 1.08350 bearish Target, which as with the February 14 Low, it is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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USD/JPY Breakout and New Support FormationUSD/JPY has recently broken through a key resistance level, which has now turned into support. If we break above the trendline resistance, our first target will be the next resistance level. This could be a good opportunity for a long position if the breakout is confirmed.
POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR XAUUSD THIS WEEK!As we know gold is still in a strong uptrend.
When we look dating from 23/09/24 till 26/09/24 gold as hit several ATHs and retraced back down to its PREV BUY ZONE to continue its uptrend.
With new data being released around the dollar and war conflicts in the Middle East gold has been unsure of its direction causing it to range between the BUY/SELL ZONE.
The strong levels I would take from this are
- 2625
- 2640
- 2670
I think if gold can continue its sudden bearish momentum its had after hitting its ATH then we can see 2625 being retested and if a sudden break of that we may see more down side.
the other scenario is gold bounces off the 2625 for the third time in 3 weeks and continues its run in the bull market.
This is just my analysis and not financial advice.
Good luck trading
Hit the rocket for more analysis’s for the rest of the year.
The direction likely set for usd to head higherHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
USD broke up higher ,potentially already formed a double bounce...has been up the whole of last week...could likely see pullback before heading higher.for now up side bias for USD
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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Sell AUD/USD Triangle BreakoutThe AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.6870
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.6835
2nd Support – 0.6804
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.6916. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Trade Idea: AUD/USD Bounce at Support ZoneAUD/USD is currently moving downward, and I anticipate a bounce when the price reaches the upcoming support zone. This level has shown strength in the past, making it a likely spot for a rebound. I’m ready to take advantage of this potential upward move once it hits this support.
Gold Shakeout - Fed Comments/UD-Dollar - Rally TimeGold saw a huge shakeout this morning, as the Fed commented, and the move in the US dollar put some extreme pressure on metals.
The funny thing is this move ended almost as fast as it started - and now metals are rallying again.
Why?
The Fed is trying to transition into a more global friendly position - allowing foreign nations to become more competitive with the US Dollar. China recently went ALL IN on a resurgence economy - betting the US Fed is going to move towards more Dovish rate cuts. This bet may be the downfall of China if the Fed changes direction near the end of 2025.
The US dollar is still the biggest, badest currency on the planet. As Gold rises while the US Dollar rises - you are seeing global traders attempt to hedge global risk factors in precious metals while the US Dollar/Economy continues to be the 900lb Gorilla of the world's economies.
Things could get very interesting through the US election. Sit tight - buckle up and prepare for some very big moves in the markets over the next 60-90+ days.
Get some.
USDCNY Brace for a cyclical 1-year sell-off.The USDCNY pair is almost on a 3-month decline after a Lower Highs rejection early in July. Having broken below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) the same month, which was the long-term Support, this Lower Highs is a standard cyclical top formation that has shown up both on the May 2020 and 2017 tops.
The similarities are more obvious on the 1W RSI, where the pair makes its cyclical bottom after a Higher Lows trend-line is formed on oversold territory and tops on the Lower Highs trend-line shown.
Right now it appears that we are just before it breaks downwards aggressively and attack the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The Sine Waves also give a great perspective of the frequency of those Cycle Bottoms.
As a result, we expect the pair to have reached by the end of 2025 the 10-year Higher Lows Zone. Our long-term Target is 6.500.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 4, 2024 EURUSDAn event to look out for today:
15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Rate
EURUSD:
EUR/USD remains on the defensive near 1.1030 on the back of a stronger US dollar during the early Asian session on Friday. Cautious market sentiment ahead of key US economic data is putting pressure on the major pair. All eyes will be on the release of US employment data due for release today.
The US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Thursday provided some support to the US Dollar (USD). The services PMI rose to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August, beating the market forecast of 51.7, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed.
Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US rose by 6,000 to 225,000 for the week ended 28 September. The figure followed the previous week's data of 219,000 (revised from 218,000) and was worse than market expectations of 220,000.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that policymakers are likely to stick to their policy of cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps) going forward. Markets have priced the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at nearly 68.9%, while the probability of a 50 bps rate cut is 31.1%, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday may provide some hints on how the US interest rate will move. The US economy is estimated to have added 140,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. If the employment report is weaker than expected, it could prompt the central bank to consider deeper rate cuts, which would put pressure on the US dollar.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers continue to hint that another rate cut could be in the near future. This, in turn, could weaken the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar. Kyle Chapman, currency analyst at Ballinger Group, said, ‘Policy is too tight given the challenging macroeconomic environment and a move to successive rate cuts seems self-evident now that disinflation is in its late stages.’
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Sell orders from the current price level
GBPUSD reached the 1day MA50. Double netry buy opportunity.GBPUSD is about to test the 1day MA50, which is intact since August 13th.
The pattern is a Channel Up and even though its bottom is a little lower, the 1day MA50 should technically be a first buy entry on this pattern.
If the price drops more, you can use the bottom of the Channel for a 2nd entry.
A rebound of the 1day RSI on its Support Zone, confirms the buy signal.
Target on both occassions 1.3500.
Previous chart:
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USD/JPY at Key Support: Bounce or Breakout?Hey traders! USD/JPY is approaching a crucial support zone. If the price pulls back and holds at this level, we could see a strong rebound. However, if it breaks through the resistance above, we may see a bullish breakout toward our first target.
Here’s what I’m watching:
Support Zone: Keep an eye on this level for a potential bounce.
Resistance Breakout: If we see a breakout above the resistance, thE TARGET WILL BE NUMBER 1 .
USDINR The 2-year Rising Wedge is holding.The USDINR pair continues to respect the Rising Wedge that we mentioned more than 2 months ago (July 24, see chart below), giving us both excellent buy and sell signals:
This 2-year Rising Wedge pattern is approaching its top (Higher Highs trend-line) once more so we're preparing for a sell signal again. The confirmation to sell within this pattern is given when the 1W RSI breaks above its MA line (yellow trend-line).
Our Target is 83.7500.
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US Dollar Index Climbs to 101.00 as Powell Signals Rate CutsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen close to the 101.00 level following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated that future rate cuts would be implemented gradually. This rise comes as no surprise, as the DXY has rebounded from a key demand area that was previously identified. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bearish on the US Dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—have shifted toward long positions, further supporting the currency's strength.
This bullish sentiment in the US Dollar is reinforced by the fundamental backdrop. Today, the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings reports could further fuel the DXY’s upward momentum. A positive outcome from these key economic indicators would indicate continued resilience in the US economy, bolstering expectations for the Fed to maintain its gradual approach to rate adjustments, which in turn supports the USD.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector, and a strong reading would reflect ongoing economic expansion, likely pushing the DXY higher. Similarly, the JOLTS Job Openings data provides insights into labor market strength, and a robust figure would further cement the case for a stronger US Dollar.
Technically, the DXY’s recovery from the demand area, combined with the shift in institutional positioning, points to a sustained bullish outlook for the US Dollar. With smart money moving to the long side and retailers still bearish, the DXY could continue its climb, especially if today's economic data aligns with market expectations.
In conclusion, the US Dollar Index is experiencing a bullish run following Powell’s comments on gradual rate cuts, and the momentum is likely to be reinforced by positive ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data. As retail traders remain bearish and institutional investors shift toward the long side, the DXY could see further gains in the near term, particularly if economic data supports the Fed’s cautious but optimistic outlook.